After another first-round exit by the Calgary Flames, there may be some big changes coming to that club. We’ve heard Johnny Gaudreau’s name mentioned in trade rumors around the trade deadline. It appears as though his center, Sean Monahan, will be another name discussed in traded conversations.

Monahan’s name being out there caused a stir among Buffalo Sabres fans that began discussing the idea of acquiring him after a tweet from Patrick Johnston of the Vancouver Sun.

Heard recently Flames were floating Sean Monahan’s name around in the beforetimes.

Surely they’ll try again now.

— Patrick Johnston (@risingaction) August 21, 2020

Before getting into all of this, I don’t see why the Flames would move Monahan with no center depth behind him. We’re familiar with what happens when you trade a top-six center with no adequate replacement plan.

It makes more sense to move Johnny Gaudreau with the depth they have on the wing in Dillon Dube, Matthew Tkachuk, Andrew Mangiapane, and Elias Lindholm. Gaudreau is also two years older than Monahan and has one less year of team control.

Having said that, you never know. General managers have been known to make some odd decisions, therefore, we can’t rule anything out.

Player Breakdown

Let’s start by discussing the type of player that Monahan is. He has been a productive player offensively the last few years and has been a top 40 forward in 5v5 points per 60 minutes over the last three years, according to Evolving Hockey.

He gets to the quality areas of the ice offensively and can finish. He’s among the top 50 (47) of forwards to play at least 300 minutes over the last three seasons in individual shot quality at 5 on 5, according to the twins’ site.

I spent some time watching 10 games worth of shifts from Monahan this season. You come away noticing that he’s not a flashy player, but the puck always seems to find him around the net. The 25-year-old isn’t going to wow you with his skating, but he has the burst in small spaces to get a step on a defender for scoring chances. Below you’ll find an example of this against the Colorado Avalanche on a game-winning overtime goal.

His style reminds me a little bit of Sam Reinhart. For those of you that are not enamored by his game, you’re probably not going to be thrilled with Monahan. You’re not going to see him fly through the neutral zone with possession. Like Reinhart, he does most of his work around the net.

So, I decided to feed you the dessert first. Now, it’s time for the veggies.

Saying Monahan struggles defensively may be an understatement. Going through the numbers, there are poor data points all over the place.

You can see above in Micah McCurdy’s yearly isolated impact charts that he has been a poor defensive impact player through the entirety of his career. In most seasons, his offensive impact will outweigh the struggles defensively, but that hasn’t been the case for the last two years.

According to Evolving Hockey’s RAPM model, he registered the 10th-worst on-ice shot quality against per 60 minutes among all forwards to play at least 300 minutes over the last three years. In their expected goals above replacement model, he had the 13th-worst even-strength defensive impact among all forwards in the same pool of players.

When you watch the game tape, you notice the shortcomings defensively in almost every game. There are one or two turnovers that make you cringe. It doesn’t always result in a goal against, but it usually results in a quality chance against.

Here’s are a few examples from a game against the Anaheim Ducks. This first clip, he’s caught unaware of the player coming to join the play and the Ducks forward steps by him with ease to skate in for a quality scoring chance.

This next one is a careless turnover when he just turns around and fires it back up the middle of the ice and it results in a turnover.

The Flames were well aware of Monahan’s shortcomings defensively. Even though he was their top-line center, they sheltered him over the last four years with offensive zone starts. He was deployed in 60% or higher offensive zone starts in each of the last four years at 5 on 5, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Sabres Fit

Here’s the thing, if the Sabres acquire him, he’ll slot behind Jack Eichel as their second-line center. What that means is he’ll get easier matchups than what he was seeing with the Flames. As a result, he may perform better defensively or at the very least reduce his negative impact at that end of the ice. With him continuing to produce offensively, he may not give it all back with easier matchups as a second-line center.

They’d also have to shelter him still with offensive zone starts at 5 on 5 on a line with a winger like Jeff Skinner. They can focus on the offensive side of the game and the Sabres can hedge the potential defensive downside with a solid two-way winger on the other side.

A player like Jesper Fast comes to mind. It’s a similar role to what he played with the New York Rangers on a line with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome this season.

Where you start to run into a roadblock here is crafting a package that would interest the Flames. This likely isn’t a trade scenario where you can throw Rasmus Ristolainen into the mix. For those unaware, Brian Burke once told a story when he was the Flames general manager that he was looking into acquiring Ristolainen. However, his head of analytics at the time let it be known that it would be a bad idea and he didn’t continue to pursue the trade.

That head analytics from back then is now the well-respected assistant general manager of the Flames, Chris Snow. They’ll still probably need to address their blue line, as such, perhaps Brandon Montour could be part of the package.

Beyond that, the Sabres would likely need to include a first-round pick or Sam Reinhart to have a realistic chance to bring in Monahan. Even then, the Flames may want a center back to replace Monahan and the Sabres don’t have that player to add. Unless, of course, the Flames see Reinhart has a center.

Acquiring Monahan makes a ton of sense for the Sabres, but I just find it hard to find a place where it’s that realistic of an outcome. Not only because it seems counter-productive for the Flames to move their top center without any player behind him to fill in, but the package of assets needed may not be enough to beat out other teams.

We’ll see what happens. Never say never as we see some odd trades all the time in the NHL.

Data via: Hockeyviz.com, Evolving Hockey, and Natural Stat Trick

Photo credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports