I’m going to go a little off script for the first round picks this year. For rounds 2-6 I wanted to give a scouting analysis of each player since the casual fan has no idea who any of the players I’m talking about in those articles are. When it comes to the first-round players, most of you have an idea of who the options are at each draft selection. Some of you have very strong opinions on who should and shouldn’t be selected there as well.

If you want to see my scouting report on each player, I encourage you to head over to the draft rankings article and click on each player. For the purposes of the draft guide, I’m going to go into a more detailed rationale about why I think each player could be a fit, what I like about them, and what they need to improve upon.

Same format as always. The ‘Dream Scenarios’ are my favorite picks at the position, the ‘Realistic Scenarios’ are who I think will be available and who I think the Sabres could target, and the ‘Wildcard Scenarios’ are players that the Sabres could reach to take or players who could slip down the draft board to the draft position.

The Sabres currently have the 4th overall pick. Let’s. Freaking. Go.

Dream Scenarios

1. Chase Reid, RHD, OHL

DOB: 12/30/07

6’2, 194 lbs

45gp, 18g, 48pts

My Rank: 4th

This one is probably just wishful thinking.

In a draft that doesn’t have many centers at the top of the board, the value of a right-shot defenseman like Chase Reid is going to be incredibly difficult for teams like San Jose and Vancouver to pass on. I’d be surprised if he makes it to Buffalo. But a man can dream, right?

When I watch Chase Reid, the first thing that jumps out is just how easy everything looks. He’s one of the smoothest skating defensemen in this draft class. There isn’t much wasted movement. He glides up the ice, changes directions effortlessly, and has this natural shimmy to his game that constantly keeps forecheckers guessing. For a bigger defenseman, he dances across the offensive blue line like he’s 5-foot-10. That’s not something you teach.

His skating and puck skill work together beautifully. He doesn’t just carry the puck up the ice—he attacks with it. He’ll take it end-to-end. He’ll activate off the blue line. He’ll pull defenders toward him with a quick fake before slipping into space to either shoot or create a passing lane. The puck seems attached to his stick.

And then there’s the shot. It’s heavy. It’s accurate. More importantly, he cares that it’s a quality scoring chance rather than just throwing it on net. He’s not one of those defensemen who pile up shot attempts by hammering pucks into shin pads from sixty feet away. Reid gets pucks through traffic. He changes his angle before shooting. He understands when to lean into his one-timer and when to simply put a puck on net that creates chaos around the crease. There is real offensive upside here. That’s why he’s probably not going to be available.

But he isn’t a perfect prospect.

There are defensive questions that keep me from putting him into that truly elite tier of defensemen. His backward skating isn’t nearly as fluid as his forward skating. He can struggle with his pivots, and when attacking forwards force him to move laterally, he tends to concede too much space. In-zone coverage can also drift. He isn’t always sticky enough without the puck, and there are too many moments where his assignment finds a little too much room around the slot for my liking. Those habits need to improve.

The other thing that gave me pause was the tracking data. At first glance, it looks excellent. Then you remember he played a ton. When I adjusted everything to a per-60 basis, the profile changed a little. Instead of looking like the dominant PP1 offensive defenseman his raw totals suggested, his numbers fell much closer to Ryan Lin than Xavier Villeneuve. That’s not a knock on Reid. Ryan Lin is a really good prospect. But it does temper expectations a bit. Reid generated offense because he was on the ice constantly, not necessarily because he was producing at a historic rate every minute he played.

Even with those concerns, I’d still be thrilled if Buffalo somehow landed him.

You’re talking about an offensive-minded right-shot defenseman with high-end skating, legitimate puck skill, and a shot that projects to be a weapon at the NHL level. The defensive game still needs work before I’d trust him in every situation, but I think the foundation is there. The skating, the offensive instincts, and the confidence with the puck are all above-average NHL-caliber traits. He’s the #1 defenseman on my board, and I’d sprint to the podium to take him if he were available.

2. Viggo Bjorck, C, SHL

DOB: 3/12/08

5’9, 181 lbs

42gp, 6g, 15pts

My Rank: 5th

I already wrote about why him here. But I will take this moment to reiterate that I would be pounding the table for Bjorck if I were in that draft room and McKenna/Stenbert/Reid were off the board.

3. Tynan Lawrence, C, NCAA

DOB: 8/3/08

6’1, 185 lbs

18gp, 2g, 7pts

My Rank: 6th

I think Tynan Lawrence is the most underrated player in the entire 2026 NHL Draft. Honestly, I don’t think it’s particularly close. He played just 13 games in the USHL this season, scoring 10 goals and 17 points. Stretch that over Muskegon’s 61-game schedule, and you’re talking about a 47-goal, 80-point season. And remember, he wasn’t even fully up to speed after returning from injury.

Now imagine if he had actually played the whole year. Imagine he finishes with 50 goals. Imagine he flirts with 90 points in a league that has become increasingly difficult to score in over the past few seasons.

Are we still talking about him as a fringe lottery pick? I don’t think we are.

Instead, the conversation has become about his production after making the jump to Boston University. Lawrence is an August birthday who stepped into one of college hockey’s best programs halfway through the season. Of course, the points weren’t going to come immediately. But here’s the part I don’t think enough people watched. Go back and watch Boston University’s final three games.

He looked like he belonged. Actually, he looked like he was starting to take games over.

What has always stood out about Lawrence is how effortlessly he drives transition. He gets pucks through the neutral zone as well as almost anyone in this class. He’s strong on his edges, protects pucks with his body, and consistently gets his team into the offensive zone with possession. As the year went on at BU, something clicked.

Once he started developing chemistry with his linemates, the offensive-zone play started to follow. Earlier in the year, he’d create an entry, move the puck, and watch the play die because nobody gave it back or created the next layer of offense. By the end of the season, those plays were finally starting to connect. That’s why I’m buying the player.

Lawrence isn’t going to wow you with highlight-reel hands. His puck skill is functional, not flashy. But I almost see that as a strength. Everything he does with the puck drives the offense. He uses his skating and edges to protect the puck, cuts back to create passing lanes, leans on his strength to maintain possession, and makes the simple play that keeps offense alive. Then, once the defense starts shifting, he attacks. His shot is heavy. His offensive instincts are excellent. And he might be one of the better off-puck forwards in this class when it comes to finding scoring areas.

The details at center are there too. He’s constantly supporting his defensemen. He’s underneath the puck. He’s a dog on the forecheck. He wins pucks back. He’s the type of center you can run a line through because he does all of the little things that let everyone else play faster.

If I have one concern, it’s this. I think Lawrence is at his best when he has a dynamic offensive winger to play with. He’s not the type of player who’s going to stand at the top of the circles, manipulate three defenders with his hands, and create offense out of nothing. That’s just not his game. Instead, he wears teams down. He’ll cycle pucks low to high. He’ll support underneath. He’ll make the next play instead of the spectacular play. Then, the moment the defense shifts or loses structure, he attacks the opening. It’s a very mature style of offense. And honestly, I think that’s why I’m higher on him than most.

Everyone wants to hype up their favorite player as the next Art Ross winner. I don’t. I want to hype up prospects who will be the next generation of two-way, high-impact NHL players. Lawrence is cerebral. He’s reliable. He processes the game at a high level. He plays the center position the way NHL coaches want it played, and he has enough offense to make all of those details matter. Do I think he’ll ever lead the league in scoring?

No.

Do I think he has the ceiling to score 60-plus points while matching up against the other team’s best players every night? Absolutely. If everything clicks, I think there’s a legitimate Selke Trophy candidate in there.

And if that’s the player he becomes, whoever drafts him outside the top 10 is going to look awfully smart.

Realistic Scenarios

1. Caleb Malhotra, C, OHL

DOB: 6/2/08

6’2, 185 lbs

67gp, 29g, 84pts

My Rank: 9th

Caleb Malhotra scares me. Not because he played in the BCHL before exploding offensively after joining one of the best teams in the OHL. Not because I don’t think he’s skilled. Not because I don’t think he has NHL traits.

He scares me because the tracking data doesn’t align with his current draft projection of a top-5 pick.

For a player who’s consistently discussed as the top center in this draft class, I expected to see someone driving play in every area of the ice. I didn’t. Out of the 74 North American forwards I tracked on a per-60 basis, Malhotra ranked 32nd in shot attempts, 18th in dangerous shot attempts, 36th in pass attempts, 21st in passing completion percentage, 7th in dangerous pass attempts, and 2nd in the percentage of his passes that became dangerous pass attempts.

Those offensive-zone numbers? Really encouraging.

Then you get to transition. 58th in offensive transition involvement. 62nd in defensive transition involvement. 31st in Corsi. That’s where I start asking questions.

I know what you’re thinking. “Alright, nerd…what does all of that actually mean?”

It means Caleb Malhotra is a very good offensive-zone player.

When the puck is established in the offensive zone, he’s exactly the type of player you want touching it. Despite being a bigger forward who prefers power moves and protecting the puck with his body, he has surprisingly soft hands and really good vision. He isn’t just looking to make the safe play—he’s constantly trying to put pucks into dangerous areas. And while he isn’t a high-volume shooter, when he decides to shoot, he’s usually getting inside and making it count.

He’s a connector. He’s a finisher.

He’s the type of player who thrives when the game slows down for a second. Give him time to scan the ice, let him receive the puck in the offensive zone, and he’ll usually make the right decision. That’s why so many people are excited about him.

But hockey games aren’t played exclusively in the offensive zone. The biggest concern for me is everything that happens before he gets there.

When I tracked his games, Malhotra simply wasn’t driving transition. Zone exits and entries were usually handled by Cooper Dennis or Adam Benack, depending on who he was playing with. When Malhotra was asked to transport the puck himself, the efficiency just wasn’t there compared to the other top forwards in this class.

The offensive vision shows up once possession is established. It doesn’t consistently show up getting there. Then there’s the defensive side of the puck.

Again, the data worries me.

He didn’t consistently break up the transition. He struggled separating players from pucks in the defensive zone. And for someone playing on one of the most talented teams in the CHL, I expected his possession numbers to be significantly better than they were.

That’s what gives me pause when people project him as a full-time NHL center. Can he get there? Absolutely.

He’s physical. He’s competitive. There are traits to build on, and I actually think going to Boston University is one of the best things that could happen for his development. If there’s an environment that’s going to force him to round out the details of his game, it’s the NCAA.

But if I’m drafting fourth overall?

I’m betting on certainty. And Malhotra isn’t that for me. He’s a projection.

You’re betting that the transition game develops. You’re betting that the defensive habits improve. You’re betting that the offensive-zone intelligence eventually carries over to the other 150 feet of the ice.

That’s a perfectly reasonable bet. I’m just not sure it’s one I’d be comfortable making with a top-five pick. There are definitely traits to get excited about, and I understand why teams love him. I just think he’s farther away than people realize.

And if he eventually becomes the best center in this class, it will be because he learned to impact the game everywhere, not just once his team already has the puck.

2. Carson Carels, LHD, WHL

DOB: 6/23/08

6’2, 198 lbs

58gp, 20g, 73pts

My Rank: 16th

If the Sabres are looking for a Bowen Byram replacement, I think Carson Carels is probably the player I’d go with in this draft to pick.

Not because they’re identical players. But because Carels will be able to play with any of our top 3 defensemen and have a positive impact on them.

Carels is one of the best skaters among the defensemen in this class. He has the north-south speed to close gaps, the backward mobility to mirror attacking forwards, and the edgework to stay square without giving up the middle of the ice. He doesn’t panic defensively because his feet allow him to recover from mistakes. And unlike some of the other offensive defensemen in this class, Carels actually enjoys defending.

He’s physical. He angles players into the boards and finishes checks. He doesn’t shy away from contact on puck retrievals and will happily give a forward a shove after the whistle or lean on them in front of the net. For a player who isn’t built like a six-foot-four shutdown defenseman, he competes like one. To me, he’s one of the most complete defensive defensemen projected to go in the first round.

I also think his offensive game shouldn’t be judged by his point total.

He’s one of the better passers in this draft class. The puck moves quickly off his stick, he consistently finds the next play, and when he chooses to activate, he has the skating and puck skills to carry the puck through transition and create offense himself. He isn’t just a defenseman who can make the first pass. He can skate pucks out, join the rush, move down the wall in the offensive zone, and make plays. The tools are there.

The problem is…

He just doesn’t do it enough.

There are entire stretches of games where you almost forget he’s capable of creating offense. Instead of demanding the puck, he’ll defer to teammates. Instead of activating into space, he’ll swing the puck D-to-D or chip it down the wall and reset the play. He almost defaults to the safe decision, even when he can make the aggressive one.

That’s where I struggle with projecting him this high. Because I don’t think Carson Carels is going to run an NHL power play. I don’t think he’s going to put up 60 points.

Could he? Maybe.

But if I’m drafting fourth overall, I don’t want “maybe.”

I want a defenseman who I believe can shut down top players and quarterback my first power-play unit. I’m not convinced Carels is that player.

I am convinced he’s going to play a long time in the NHL. He’s going to eat minutes. He’s going to defend top competition. He’s going to drive positive results at even strength. He’s going to be the type of defenseman that analytics models love because he prevents chances, exits the zone efficiently, and quietly makes everyone around him better.

There’s a lot of value in that player. I just think it’s a little too vanilla for me at fourth overall.

3. Alberts Smits, LHD, Liiga

DOB: 12/7/07

6’3, 209 lbs

38gp, 6g, 13pts

My Rank: 7th

I’m going to try not to sound like a broken record here, but I honestly believe this. If Alberts Smits had spent this season in North America, we’d be talking about him as a legitimate contender for first overall.

I’m serious.

Take a defenseman with his size, his mobility, his aggression, above-average puck skill, and the ability to shut down grown men, then drop him into the CHL instead of playing against professionals all year. He would’ve terrorized that league. You’re not going to convince me otherwise. Instead, he stayed in Europe and put together one of the most impressive draft years of anyone in this class.

I don’t think anyone played more hockey than Smits. He played in Liiga. He played in the DEL playoffs. He played at the World Juniors. He played at the Olympics. He played at the World Championship. Every time Latvia had a jersey to put on him, he was there.

Whether it was because he loves hockey, because he wanted to prove he belonged in the NHL next year, or because he simply never says no to an opportunity to compete, I don’t know. Maybe it’s all three. What I do know is that he looked like he belonged everywhere he went. That’s incredibly rare for an 18-year-old defenseman.

The thing I love most about Smits is that he doesn’t play like a teenager. He plays like he expects to control the game. His default setting is aggressive. If there’s an opportunity to activate, he’s gone. If he can jump into the rush, he’s taking it. If he sees space opening up through the middle, he’s attacking it. He’s constantly looking to create offense from the back end.

Normally, when a defenseman plays that aggressively, you’re worried about what happens when the puck goes the other way. I don’t really have that concern with Smits.

His combination of size, strength, skating, and mobility allows him to recover from mistakes that other defensemen simply can’t. He closes gaps well, kills plays early, and already looks comfortable defending against professional players.

I actually think the offensive side of his game gets overlooked. Part of that is because his offense doesn’t always come from flashy skill plays. His puck skills are good. His skating is very good. But a lot of his offense comes from timing. He understands when to join the rush. He recognizes when there’s an extra layer to attack. He creates offense by becoming the fourth man in the play rather than trying to beat three defenders one-on-one. That’s a harder thing to appreciate than dangling someone at the offensive blue line.

The one area I’d like to see improve is what happens after he creates the advantage. Too often, the play stays focused on him. He’ll beat the first layer, draw defenders toward himself, and then miss the next read. The passing vision still has another level to get to. As he continues to learn how quickly professional defenses rotate, I think he’ll start recognizing where the real advantage is instead of trying to finish every play himself.

If that part of his game comes…

Look out. Because I honestly think he has the ceiling to become the best defenseman in this draft class. The combination of size, mobility, aggression, and defensive impact is exactly what NHL teams spend years trying to find. That’s why I’d bet on Alberts Smits.

In fact, when I put together my faux Sabres prospect pool, he’s the defenseman I’m taking at #4 if Chase Reid is off the board, given how loaded my faux Sabres team is at forward.

Wildcard Scenarios

1. Daxon Rudolph, RHD, WHL

DOB: 3/6/08

6’3, 205 lbs

68gp, 28g, 78pts

My Rank: 23rd

Of all the defensemen projected to go in the lottery, Daxon Rudolph is probably where I’m furthest from consensus. I get why people like him. I just don’t see the same player.

That’s not to say Rudolph isn’t talented. He is. There are flashes throughout his game that make you understand why teams believe there’s legitimate offensive upside here. I just think there’s a lot more projection involved than people are willing to admit.

Let’s start with transition because that’s where so much of today’s NHL game is won.

Rudolph’s transition game is built around activation. He loves playing give-and-go hockey. He’ll make a quick outlet pass to a winger, immediately jump into the rush, and hope to get the puck back through the middle of the ice. When that works, it looks great. He creates odd-man situations and joins the attack naturally.

The problem is when he has to do the heavy lifting himself. As a puck transporter, I think he struggles. The puck skill looks clunky under pressure. He doesn’t consistently manipulate defenders with his hands, and he lacks the lateral edgework to shift around pressure before protecting the puck. When defenders stand him up, too many possessions simply die.

Then there’s the passing. This might be the strangest part of his game. Rudolph loves one-touch passes. Sometimes they’re brilliant. He catches a puck, immediately zips it into space, and suddenly, his teammate is attacking with numbers.

Other times…

I’m left wondering why he rushed the play at all. He’ll have five feet of open ice, plenty of time to make a read, and instead he’ll one-touch the puck right onto an opposing defenseman’s stick in the neutral zone. It’s almost like he’s predetermined the play before the puck ever gets to him. Those are turnovers you simply can’t afford at higher levels.

The offensive-zone game leaves me feeling the same way. There are things I really like. When Rudolph activates down the wall, he has a knack for finding the slot. He understands where dangerous ice is, and he’ll make some really nice passes into scoring areas.

But then the puck gets back to the blue line…

…and he’s shooting.

Every.

Single.

Time.

He loves point shots. Honestly, I think he loves them a little too much. Instead of walking the blue line, changing his angle, or attacking deeper into the zone, he’ll often fire the puck immediately. Sure, sometimes it creates a rebound or a scramble in front. Other times it’s a shin pad. And now it’s an odd-man rush going the other way. That decision-making has to improve.

The defensive game is where I have the biggest concerns. I just don’t think he defends rushes well enough. He gives attackers too much space. He isn’t particularly eager to engage them early, and if he fails to angle them toward the boards, they can beat him wide with surprising regularity.

In-zone, I actually like him a little more. He isn’t overly physical, but he has an active stick, disrupts passing lanes effectively, and does a nice job cutting off those high-to-low plays that so many teams try to generate offense from. There are defensive habits to build on.

But for me, there are simply too many question marks. Can the puck transportation improve? Can the decision-making become more consistent? Can he defend NHL rush attackers? Can the offense translate when so much of it relies on quick-touch hockey and point shots?

That’s a lot of “ifs.”

And when I’m talking about the fourth overall pick, I don’t want to be asking that many questions. There’s absolutely a path for Rudolph to develop into an offensive-minded NHL defenseman. I just think the runway is longer than consensus does, and with the other players likely to be on the board, I’d rather bet on prospects who have fewer hurdles between where they are today and where they need to be to become impact NHL players.

2. Keaton Verhoeff, RHD, NCAA

DOB: 6/19/08

6’4, 216 lbs

36gp, 6g, 20pts

My Rank: 8th

Coming into the season, there were scouts who thought Keaton Verhoeff had a legitimate chance to challenge Gavin McKenna for the first overall pick. Tomorrow, he’ll almost certainly still hear his name called in the top 10. I have him there, too. Just at the back end of it.

So what happened?

Well, first, I’ll repeat something I’ve probably said a dozen times already this week. I think NCAA players have been judged far more harshly than their CHL counterparts this season. Verhoeff is another example of that. The difference is that, unlike some of the other NCAA players I’ve defended, I think some of the criticism here is actually warranted.

The biggest hurdle between Verhoeff and becoming an elite NHL defenseman is his skating. Not his straight-line speed. His small-area mobility. His edgework can look clunky. His pivots aren’t always clean. His stop-start acceleration limits how often he can escape pressure or recover defensively when plays break down. There were a lot of moments this season where you could see exactly what he wanted to do with the puck, but his feet simply couldn’t execute it quickly enough.

The encouraging part? I think it’s fixable. If he cleans up the edgework, improves those pivots, and finds another gear in his first three strides, you’re looking at one heck of a two-way defenseman. Because the skill is already there. I love his confidence with the puck.

He has no problem attacking through the neutral zone, using subtle fakes to create space, or chipping pucks into open ice around defenders before skating onto them. Those aren’t easy plays to make, especially against NCAA competition. His shot might be the best in this tier of defensemen. When he gets inside and leans into it, he can beat goalies clean. It’s heavy, accurate, and he isn’t afraid to use it. He’s also a really good offensive-zone passer who can move the puck efficiently at even strength and on the power play.

The tools are obvious.

So why don’t I love him at fourth overall?

Decision-making. That’s the part of his game that worried me the most as the season went on. His struggles in the NCHC and NCAA Tournaments weren’t just bad luck. They were self-inflicted. Turnover after turnover. Some of them ended up directly in North Dakota’s net. He forced plays through the middle that weren’t there. He threw pucks to his first read without recognizing how quickly defenders had rotated. There were too many moments where he seemed to decide what he wanted to do before the play actually developed. That’s something that needs improvement.

The activations concern me too. I like aggressive defensemen. I don’t like aggressive defensemen who activate without purpose. There were multiple times where Verhoeff would move the puck to his partner and immediately cut diagonally through the offensive zone toward the far corner before reading where the play was actually going. Suddenly, his defensive partner had no outlet, the puck turned over, and Verhoeff was below the goal line while the other team was heading the other direction.

The same thing happened on pinches. Sometimes he’d step up a split second too late. Sometimes there was no one supporting him. One chip past him, and it became an odd-man rush. Those are habits. Not bad bounces. And habits can be difficult to break.

There’s a lot to like about Keaton Verhoeff. Honestly, I understand why people fell in love with him before the season started. The skating flashes, the puck skill, the shot, the confidence…it’s all there. If everything comes together, you’re looking at a legitimate top-pair defenseman who can play in every situation.

But that’s also the key phrase.

If everything comes together.

For me, there’s just a little more projection here than there is with some of the other defensemen I’d be considering at fourth overall.

Photo Credit: Nick Wosika-Imagn Images