Despite the Buffalo Sabres parting ways with their primary interpersonal connection in Jason Botterill, the Pittsburgh Penguins could be a prime trade partner for them (yet again) this offseason. During Botterill’s three-year tenure, the Sabres executed two “hockey trades” with the Penguins and their longtime general manager, Jim Rutherford (his former boss and mentor).

With needs on the back-end and a likely desire to move salary, Pittsburgh will almost assuredly be on Kevyn Adams’ call-list. Now that the Penguins are eliminated from the expanded playoff, it feels like a good time to highlight a few of their players who the Sabres could target.

It goes without saying that Rutherford’s eye for defensive talent has been historically suspect (gestures vaguely at Jack Johnson). With players like Brandon Montour and Rasmus Ristolainen potentially (perhaps likely) on the trade block, could he be convinced to part with one of his many RFA assets in exchange for one of them?

Penguins Offseason Outlook

2020-21 Projected Cap Space (via Cap Friendly): $13.2 million

Key Restricted Free Agents: Evan Rodrigues (arbitration-eligible), Jared McCann (arbitration-eligible), Anthony Angello (arbitration-eligible), Sam Lafferty (arbitration-eligible), Dominik Simon (arbitration-eligible), Juuso Riikola (arbitration-eligible), Matt Murray (arbitration-eligible), Tristan Jarry (arbitration-eligible)

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Justin Schultz, Conor Sheary, Patrick Marleau

Projected Needs: Defensemen and Futures

Trade Targets

1. Jared McCann | C/LW | Age 24 | RFA

We’ll start with the player who is likely the most talented and impactful asset on the list in McCann. Last summer, Bryan Rust was the popular name when discussing trades between the Penguins and Sabres. Unfortunately, that window has likely past (or at least become much more expensive) with Rust finishing second on his team with 56 points in 55 games this season. He’s also locked-down on a very team-friendly contract for a couple more years.

McCann feels a little bit like the 2020 version of Rust. They aren’t necessarily similar players, but the situations aren’t too far off. At 24 years old, he quietly put together a very strong campaign for Pittsburgh, registering 35 points in 66 games. On top of his career-best scoring pace, he produced solid underlying metrics.

Only Rust and Evgeni Malkin posted superior even-strength GAR impacts in 2019-20, and despite relatively average xG and Corsi marks, his most common linemates, Patric Hornqvist and current-Sabre Dominik Kahun posted better numbers in both areas with McCann versus without him.

Depending on how much Rutherford still values Ristolainen, a player he showed interest in last season, perhaps he would be willing to part ways with the soon-to-be RFA. According to Evolving Hockey’s contract projections, McCann should command a two-year, $3.21 million AAV extension. That’s a hefty raise from his 2019-20 salary of $1.25 million.

2. Nick Bjugstad | C/RW | Age 28 | One-year, $4.1 Million

While he may not be as much of a slam-dunk positive addition as McCann, Bjugstad is both the most likely to be traded, and most high-risk, high-reward option on the list. After appearing in only 13 games this past season as a result of a severe back injury, the 28-year-old’s $4.1 million cap hit is a bit of a dark mark on the Penguins’ books. In May, it was announced that he experienced a setback in recovery, which resulted in spinal surgery.

That’s a major red flag, but considering what is sure to be a very low acquisition cost, perhaps it’s a gamble the Sabres should take, as long as their doctors feel he will be able to play. While the 6-foot-6 centerman may never re-attain the half-point per-game clip he produced at in the early stages of his career, he is still a capable offensive contributor.

The Sabres need scoring, and they don’t have many assets to part with. If he’s healthy, Bjugstad might be an effective stopgap option at center while Dylan Cozens gets acclimated to NHL action in a more sheltered role. Expect the Penguins to shop him for a mid-to-late round pick. With just one year remaining on his current deal, that gamble seems well worth it for an offensively desperate team like Buffalo.

He might not be the conventional second-line center fans are looking for, but in the Sabres’ situation, you’d be hard-pressed to find a “buy-low” option with a higher potential production ceiling.

3. Dominik Simon | LW | Age 26 | RFA

As one of the Penguins’ forwards who continues to surface in trade talks, it would have felt wrong to leave Simon off the list. While he has historically posted very strong defensive impacts on the wing, he could be perceived as the most recent in a long line of unremarkable forwards who have played a lot of minutes alongside Sidney Crosby.

Even for a player who isn’t offensively gifted, you would expect more production from a player whose most consistent linemates have been Crosby and Jake Guentzel over the past three seasons. Following an incredible 2018-19 campaign where he posted a career-best xG rate of 59.92-percent in 71 games, his 2019-20 production was lackluster (but still analytically positive) in that regard at 50.32-percent. That rate also came in a more offensively-tilted deployment than years prior.

Perhaps as a bottom-six winger, he could help the Sabres balance their defensive-zone deployments a bit more than they have previously. Though he’s never really served in that role before, there is reason to believe that he’d excel there, give his strong transition metrics, and aforementioned defensive acumen.

Like any of these potential trades, it all boils down to what the Penguins want in return. Simon is due a significant raise from his current salary of $750,000.00 AAV. EH projects his next deal to be in the $2 million AAV range, which is pretty reasonable. He’s not a “must-trade” for Pittsburgh by any means.

4. Matt Murray | G | Age 26 | RFA

Considering the Sabres’ struggles in net for the better part of the last five years, Murray’s name has been brought up quite a bit as a potential trade target. Fellow RFA netminder Tristan Jarry (who is all but cemented as the full-time starter) is likely to be retained by the Penguins, meaning that Murray is virtually destined to wear a different sweater in 2020-21.

There are two positives here for the Sabres. Several teams (including the New York Rangers, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Arizona Coyotes to name a few), will be looking to trade a goalie this offseason. That could lead to an oversaturated market, and subsequently, a lower cost of acquisition.

The other good thing for Buffalo is that, following a very poor contract-year showing from the 26-year-old, he probably won’t receive a hefty raise from his current salary of $3.75 million AAV.

Now for the bad news. On top of a very pedestrian (and career-low) save-percentage of .899 in 2019-20, Murray posted some of the worst underlying goaltending metrics in the NHL. Of the 48 goalies who played for at least 1,500 minutes last season, Murray ranked dead-last with a GSAx rate of -23.07.

To make matters worse, he faced the second-lowest xGA rate on the 48-goalie list, meaning that his poor results came in a relatively easy workload. There are options on the goaltending market this offseason. In addition to the handful of teams looking to sell, there are UFA options in Aaron Dell and Cam Talbot who would only cost the Sabres money (less of it, at that), and not one of their precious few trade assets.

Corsi and xG Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Transition and GSAx Charts courtesy of Charting Hockey

RAPM and GAR Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports