To this point in our team-by-team trade breakdown series, we haven’t covered any of the Buffalo Sabres’ Atlantic Division rivals. Naturally, in-division trades are relatively rare. Still, there are teams in the Atlantic who could feasibly end up on Kevyn Adams’ call-list. One of those teams is the Montreal Canadiens.

While the Habs don’t have as many realistic options as some of the Metropolitan Division squads that we’ve covered, there was rumored interest on their end this season surrounding defenseman, Rasmus Ristolainen. Though Montreal does not appear to have a dire need on the blue line, they are getting older in that area and may want to add a perceived offensive contributor to the back-end.

Using Ristolainen as a centerpiece, there are a couple of interesting targets on the Canadiens roster, should Marc Bergevin still have interest in the Finnish blueliner.

Canadiens Offseason Outlook

2020-21 Projected Cap Space (via Cap Friendly): $18.36 million

Key Restricted Free Agents: Max Domi (arbitration-eligible), Charles Hudon (arbitration-eligible), Victor Mete, Xavier Ouellet (arbitration-eligible),

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Dale Weise, Christian Folin,

Projected Needs: Offensive Contributors

1. Phillip Danault | C | 1-year, $3.083 million

We’ll kick things off with our headliner. In his regular 31 Thoughts article, Elliotte Friedman essentially confirmed RDS’ initial report last week alluding to Danault’s potential desire to seek a trade out of Montreal. Since the RDS story broke, Sabres fans have been quick to speculate trade proposals for the 27-year-old centerman. This season, he notched 47 points in 71 games, and on paper, looks like an ideal transitional second-line center for the pivot-needy Sabres.

While his base scoring totals are quite good, his underlying metrics are outstanding. In 2019-20 he ranked third among Montreal forwards in both Corsi percentage (59.37) and expected-goal percentage (59.94). Even more impressive was the fact that only Nate Thompson had a lower OZS-rate than Danault’s mark of 45.88-percent. For a Sabres team that could very well lose their best defensive centerman in Johan Larsson this offseason, acquiring a second-line pivot with two-way ability is a must.

Unsurprisingly, his expected-GAR rate of 10.8 this year is the seventh-highest single-season mark for a Montreal forward since 2017-18. In terms of aggregate totals, only Max Domi has accounted for a higher combined rate in that span.

The only real issue with this acquisition is his contract. While Danault’s production is nothing short of fantastic, he’s only locked-down for one more season. If the Sabres pursue him via trade, they must be certain that he’d entertain an extension in Buffalo. Otherwise, it would be relatively pointless.

This also boils down to just how much Bergevin wants to see Ristolainen in red-and-blue. The Sabres would likely have to add on their end in order to make this happen. Montreal is under no real pressure in terms of salary, so they don’t necessarily have to deal Danault if the right compensation isn’t there.

The Canadiens are also flush with draft picks (six first-rounders over the next three years), so in terms of add-ons, it would be interesting to see what they would demand in addition to Ristolainen.

If the stars can align and bring this acquisition to fruition, there may not be a more well-rounded, realistic, second-line center option out there. Danault’s inclusion behind Jack Eichel would immediately go a long way in resolving the Sabres’ seemingly perpetual scoring depth woes.

2. Brendan Gallagher | RW | 1-year, $3.75 million

Prior to the commencement of the 2020 NHL Playoffs, Gallagher would have seemed like an unlikely trade candidate for the Canadiens. His second-round benching in Game Four against the Philadelphia Flyers did raise some eyebrows, however. Serving as an outright healthy-scratch in game-six really ramped up the speculation.

In reality, Montreal was likely looking for something of a shakeup against a stronger opponent, so it’s not really worth letting our imaginations run wild here. Again, the organization has no salary cap hurdles to jump this offseason, and Gallagher is arguably their most consistent player for the last three years or more. Still, if for some reason he’s run out of favor with head coach, Claude Julien, maybe he could see a change of scenery in 2020-21.

Even if that’s the case, the Sabres probably don’t have enough trade ammunition to get it done. Gallagher is coming off a 43-point season (in 59 games), and Bergevin isn’t going to part with him for cheap. In terms of offensive impact, the return would have to be great for a team that should be looking to add to their current firepower, not dismantle it.

Again, the starting point here would likely be Ristolainen, but more would certainly need to be added on the Sabres’ end in order to acquire the 28-year-old. At that point, they’d be better off offering a similar (and likely smaller) proposal for Danault who would fill a more dire need.

3. Jonathan Drouin | LW | 3-years, $5.5 million AAV

While a Drouin trade seems like something of a bad idea for the Sabres, we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention him. As one of the more oft-rumored trade candidates out of Montreal, the 25-year-old has been hot-and-cold since being traded to the team three years ago.

Originally acquired as a center, Drouin has played the last two seasons primarily on the wing. After a statistically solid 53-point campaign last season, he battled injuries for a majority of 2019-20, only dressing in 27 regular-season games (registering 15 points in that time).

Analytically, since transitioning to the wing, Drouin hasn’t fared all that much better than he did at center. From 2018-2020, his even-strength xGF percentage of 49.37 is pedestrian, and he’s been absolutely abysmal defensively. His xGA/60 rate of 2.86 is also the highest among any player on the Canadiens roster who has played at least 50 games over the past two seasons.

The Sabres don’t need another overpriced, underperforming winger locked down for the next three years. Unless Montreal is willing to part with him for next to nothing, it’s not an experiment worth re-creating in Buffalo. Even then, Adams would really be paying for base numbers and not overall impacts, which is never a great strategy.

Shot Heatmaps courtesy of Hockeyviz

RAPM and CAR Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey

xG and Corsi Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick