NLL Week 21 Preview Buffalo Bandits Rochester Knighthawks by Eddy Tabone - April 18, 2025April 17, 20250 (Week 20 Review here) If you’d like to see the 50/50 playoff scenarios, Evan Schemenauer put together a spreadsheet detailing the 256 combinations of how this week could play out and the corresponding playoff probabilities. The league has team-by-team implications here. For those of you who are impatient, here are the odds for the first round opponents of the Bandits: Ottawa 34.4%, San Diego and Albany 15.6%, Colorado 12.5%, Calgary 10.9%, Georgia 9.4%, Philadelphia 1.6% If Rochester finishes 4th or 5th, they will be most likely to face Vancouver but could also face Halifax or Calgary. If they manage to climb up to the 3 seed, any of Vancouver, Colorado, San Diego, Ottawa, or Georgia could be coming to the Blue Cross Arena. Three games Friday, five games Saturday. The playoff bracket will be settled in time to place it in an Easter basket. Friday April 18 Halifax Thunderbirds (10-7) @ Toronto Rock (5-11) – 7:00 pm, TSN Playoff Implications A win gives the Thunderbirds the 3 seed. If they lose, they can still be the four seed with a Rochester loss to Toronto or a Vancouver loss to Philadelphia. It would be the first home playoff game for the Thunderbirds since relocating to Halifax in 2019. Rochester and Calgary would benefit from a Halfiax win. With the Rock owning Vegas’s first round pick, this game does not affect their draft positioning. They will pick both first and second. Game Notes The Rock have won 5 of the 6 meetings in the last three seasons, including a 15-12 win in Halifax on March 7. Toronto’s previous worst finish was a 5-13 season in 2016. The 2017 Rock would add Tom Schreiber, Latrell Harris, and Challen Rogers as rookies the next year. Randy Staats has 95 points. His career high is 96 in 2019. Clarke Petterson is also 7 points from a second consecutive 100 point season. Calgary Roughnecks (8-8) @ Las Vegas Desert Dogs (4-13) – 10:30 pm Playoff Implications With two games this weekend, Calgary still has multiple paths to a playoff berth and have a 71.9% chance to make the playoffs, but they would become much easier with two wins. A win in this game would not automatically give them a playoff clinch unless they get scoreboard help. If Halifax, Rochester, and Vancouver lose while Calgary wins twice, they’d jump up to the 4 seed. Colorado and Rochester would benefit with a Calgary win, while Georgia, Ottawa, Albany, and Philadelphia would benefit with a Calgary loss. Game Notes Calgary has won their last 3 meetings with Vegas, including a 21-8 blowout on February 16. Their lone loss in the matchup’s history came in Vegas. (In the full weekend,) With 2 assists, Curtis Dickson would set a career high in single season assists with 57. It would also ensure his 4th 100 point season. Jesse King needs 6 points for a third straight 100 point season, and 6 assists would tie his career high. Tanner Cook needs 4 points to tie his career high with 65. Albany FireWolves (7-10) @ San Diego Seals (8-9) – 10:30 pm Playoff Implications Nice and simple for San Diego: Protect their home floor and clinch. Lose and they will miss the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. Because of that, their playoff probability is an even 50/50. They can still finish as high as 6th. If Albany wins, they would still need help in the form of four different scenarios that would involve multiple games going their way. They can finish as high as 7th if everything goes in their favor, but their probability of clinching is only 23.4% A San Diego win would benefit Georgia and Philadelphia, while an Albany win would benefit Ottawa and Colorado. Calgary could still benefit with either result. Game Notes After leaving last week’s game with injury in the fourth quarter, Chris Origlieri remains day-to-day. Alex Simmons is 4 goals and 2 assists away from last season’s points split. Rob Hellyer is 2 goals away from his first 30 goal season since his MVP runner up shortened 2020 campaign. Saturday April 19 Toronto Rock (5-11) @ Rochester Knighthawks (10-7) – 6:00 pm Playoff Implications If they defeat the Rock, Rochester can clinch a home playoff game if the Rock beat Halifax the night before or the Wings beat Vancouver. If Toronto does win both games on the weekend, two Calgary wins this weekend will still put the Knighthawks in the Top 4. A Rochester loss would benefit Halifax and Vancouver, unsurprisingly. Calgary would benefit from a Rochester win. Game Notes Toronto’s last trip to Rochester was also the last (and only) time the Knighthawks defeated the Rock, coming back on December 10, 2022. Ryan Lanchbury’s 84 assists are tied for the 6th most all time. 2 assists would give him the most assists in a single season by someone not named Dhane Smith. He has 110 points through 17 games. A sock trick for Connor Fields would give him a third straight season with 50 goals, but only 2 points would be needed to surpass the 120 points he put up last season. He is also 10 loose balls short of 150. While Jeff Teat’s 8 goal weekend last weekend put him ahead of Ryan Smith in the league’s goal scoring lead, Smith is 3 away from a 50 goal season. Buffalo Bandits (13-4) @ Georgia Swarm (8-9) – 7:30 pm Playoff Implications Georgia’s playoff hopes start with needing a win. The rest of the scoreboard will determine which of Colorado or Calgary they need to win later that night. Their playoff probability is 46.9%, but that would also assume a toss-up against the Bandits. A Buffalo win would benefit Calgary, Ottawa, Colorado, Albany, and Philadelphia. Game Notes While the Swarm won the lone regular season matchup last season in Buffalo, the Bandits won the playoff rematch in a first round overtime thriller. Buffalo’s last loss in Duluth was March 18, 2018. Like Lanchbury, Josh Bryne is 3 assists from the most assists in a season by someone not named Dhane Smith, and Smith himself would beat his record from last year with 3 assists. 9 points would give him the single-season points record, which he set back in 2016. Philadelphia Wings (7-10) @ Vancouver Warriors (10-7) – 8:00 pm Playoff Implications Vancouver’s spot in the top 4 is solidified with a win or a Rochester loss. Philadelphia is this year’s team with the longest odds at 1.6%, which are half of what Rochester’s were when they had their heroic final week to clinch last season. In addition to the win, they’d need two Calgary losses and also losses from Albany, Georgia, and Ottawa. With the on-floor odds, however, each of those results wouldn’t be crazy to expect — it’s the road win that will be their biggest challenge. At the same time, Albany would benefit from a Philadelphia win if they were to defeat San Diego, as would Halifax and Rochester. While Calgary’s playoff odds would benefit from a Warriors win, they would need the Wings to win as part of the scenarios where they’d sneak into the top 4. Game Notes The Warriors are opening the upper bowl for the first time since the team moved from the Langley Events Centre to Rogers Arena in 2018. This will make it their largest attendance mark in franchise history. It’s the first time that the Wings will head to Vancouver since April 14, 2019. The Wings beat the Warriors 14-13 back on January 20. Mitch Jones is 3 points shy of a third straight 110 point season and 6 assists shy of a career high in assists. Joe Resetarits has already set a career high in points with 119. He, too, is 7 assists shy of the non-Dhane assist record. Ottawa Black Bears (8-9) @ Saskatchewan Rush (12-5) – 9:00 pm Playoff Implications While Saskatchewan is locked into the 2-seed, Ottawa’s playoff odds are at 59.4%. Even with a win, they would still need some help, but they could also make it with help if Calgary beats Colorado. An Ottawa loss would benefit each of Calgary, Georgia, Colorado, Albany, and Philadelphia. Game Notes The two teams split the season series last year while the Black Bears were in New York. Zach Manns is 4 goals short of the career-high 37 he scored last year. Colorado Mammoth (8-9) @ Calgary Roughnecks (8-8) – 9:00 pm Playoff Implications The Mammoth’s playoff hopes start with needing a win. If Calgary wins this game, they won’t need any other help to clinch. Calgary winning would benefit Ottawa and Albany. There are scenarios where either team wins that Georgia can still clinch. Game Notes The Mammoth won the first matchup of the season 11-8 on March 1 2 goals for Ryan Lee, 3 goals and Will Malcom, and 4 assists for Connor Kelly would set career highs.