One of these years I’m hoping Sabres fans aren’t going to be excited to see me pop into the xB media stream to hear me talk about picking in the lottery.

Alas, another year and another draft lottery we all get to sit through hoping the Sabres, at a minimum, don’t fall down two slots. After inexplicably winning the last game of the season which could have been a three spot drop to the 9th pick (in a draft that has a tier of seven players you want to pick from…I was not happy watching us destroy the Flyers in the season finale), we sit at the 7th selection going into the draft lottery. The Sabres have a 6.5% chance of winning the lottery and a 24.5% chance that they could slide down at least a spot.

The NHL Draft lottery will air at 7pm EST on ESPN. It will be a live drawing of the lottery this year, and not a production of the results that happened before the airing of the show.

Who are we rooting for if we win the lottery?

The 2025 NHL draft is a two-horse race for the top pick between center Michael Misa and left-handed defenseman Matthew Schaefer, and it really comes down to team needs on who will go number one.

Michael Misa

Misa is a machine when he’s on the ice. No one has been more consistently dominant in every viewing and every tracking session I’ve had this season. He’s automatic for 7 shot attempts, 5 dangerous shot attempts, 35 passes with 25% of them going to the slot or out front, and heavily involved in the transition game at even strength.

The Saginaw center never had a dip in production throughout the year as he finished with 62 goals and 134 points in 65 games in the OHL. There isn’t a weakness to his game, and the only critique of him has been that he doesn’t break a game open with jaw-dropping puck-skill. He’s surgical in his dismantling of a defensive structure in the offensive zone, and his skill as an F3 forechecker with his ability to remove pucks with this stick is a treat to watch.

Matthew Schaefer

Schaefer will most likely be the first player selected in the 2025 NHL Draft. He exploded in the Hlinka to open up the draft season and his skating and skill popped whenever he was on the ice. The Erie Otter left-handed defenseman was a staple of their transition offense and showed an activation strategy and skill that no one in this draft class possesses.

In a draft devoid of high-end defenders, Schaefer is going to be a hot commodity. He was sidelined early in the season with mononucleosis and then had his season ended with an injury after he came back. However, in terms of pure upside, talent, and game-breaking ability he should be the first overall pick this year.

If you’re a fan of chaos…

You should be rooting for the Sabres to win the lottery. With Dahlin, Power, and Byram the Sabres are locked into three offensive, left-handed defensemen already. The prospect of adding a Matthew Schaefer at first overall would put all eyes on general manager Kevyn Adams on how he would handle this situation. One that would be great for us at xB at generating content, but also a situation where Terry Pegula’s decision to retain Adams will be amplified as Adams navigates how to handle having the #1 pick and not having a need to take the #1 overall player in the draft class. In my estimation the scenarios would boil down to:

1.) Trade Power or Byram and select Schaefer

2.) Trade down for an NHL player and/or prospects and picks

3.) Package the pick for an NHL franchise level player

4.) Take Michael Misa over Matthew Schaefer

It would be, by far, the most entertaining and hopeful Sabres storyline in the drought era outside leading up to the draft lottery of 2015 for McDavid.

Best case for the Sabres: they move up the second overall selection and can safely take Michael Misa without any significant challenge to their process. I’m sure some would advocate for trading that pick as well, but Misa is the caliber of prospect that shouldn’t be passed on without an overpay that even the most pessimistic fan would applaud.

We stay at #7 after tonight, what does that look like?

I’ll write my rankings at the end of the month and will do a seven round draft guide throughout June to go into detail about this, but I would be remiss not to give a preview of what this will look like for the Sabres.

In my assessment, there is a tier of 5 players after Schaefer and Misa that I would be really happy to draft if I were the Buffalo Sabres. In terms of consolidated rankings of most public outlets; one of these five players should be available if the Sabres pick at 7 or even slide to the 8th overall pick. My five players I’d target are:

• James Hagens, C, Boston College
• Porter Martone, RW, Brampton (OHL)
• Victor Eklund, W, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
• Caleb Desnoyers, C/LW, Moncton (QMJHL)
• Anton Frondell, C/LW, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

My early inclination is that Hagens/Frondell are definitely not going to fall to the Sabres. From there you have different archetypes of players to select.

Martone is a power forward who has a bit of snarl to his game, but is also one of the craftier passers and playmakers in the draft. His foot speed and transition ability are subpar compared to his peers at this tier. Eklund is a transition king with a boatload of skill and a 200 foot player. He’s smaller in stature and his offensive upside will take time to develop.

Desnoyers is great at faceoffs, quick twitch skill plays, and finding space in the offensive zone to get a shot off. Downside would be that he reminds me of the Helenius archetype that his ability to find space and read plays at the junior level drive a lot of what he does as opposed to having the skill level to be a high-end offensive threat in the NHL.

Let’s hope this is our last draft lottery for awhile, and for me, I will be hoping the Sabres win the lottery strictly for all the possibilities that will open up for Kevyn Adams and the Sabres management to retool this team.

Photo Credit: OHL Images