The Sabres Draft guide will begin to start trickling out starting later this week, with a focus on the later rounds and then culminating with possible options for the ninth overall pick. This year, I’ve spent a lot of time tracking North American prospects by analyzing different aspects of their game through manually tracking three games throughout the season. Each player received three viewings throughout the year, with the majority of players having their data collected every month starting in October or November.

My process has remained largely unchanged for the past 7 years. Once the season starts in the CHL, USHL, and NCAA, I go through the box scores every morning and write any player who is draft eligible or in their D-1 season and see if anyone had two or more points. If they did, they entered an Excel sheet for me to track an upcoming game. As I track players, I write down the numbers of players who ‘flashed’ during the game and check to see if they’re draft eligible, then put them on a separate tab.

I’ll keep tracking players up until the draft, but currently I have three game datasets of 71 forwards and 21 defensemen. I’ve watched around 220 players this year and have partial datasets on most, but at some point, I just knew I wasn’t going to rank them, so their datasets are incomplete.

This article is a bit of a brain dump heading into the NHL draft. It’s going to be a combination of who looked good in my data, who are players I didn’t rank that I wish I ranked since digging into them the past two weeks, and random thoughts and player comparables that don’t have a specific article to live in.

What the Data Says for the 2025 North American Forwards

Shooty McShooters: Who shoots the most at even strength at forward?

1. Caleb Desnoyers (QMJHL): 29.94 shots per 60 minutes

2. Michael Misa (OHL): 19.62 shots per 60 minutes

3. Philippe Veilleux (QMJHL): 19.48

4. Ben Kindel (WHL): 19.47

5. Adam Benak (USHL): 19.18

6. Cole Reschny (WHL): 18.89

7. Carter Bear (WHL): 17.02

8. Jett Lajoie (WHL): 16.78

9. Jack Nesbitt (OHL): 16.74

10. Gavin Cornforth (USHL): 16.29

That shot differential between Misa and Desnoyers! Most of the top ten in shots per 60 are household names if you follow the draft, but two stick out. Jett Lajoie was great at finding space to get his shot off. He struggles in other areas in the game, but was a prolific shooter in the three games tracked. Gavin Cornforth is a name that’s going to appear A LOT in the positive stat tracking lists I post, and is seldom even given a draft profile (let alone a ranking) by most major public scouting outlets. He’s a bit small and doesn’t have blazing speed, but even without the microstats, he pops off the screen every time I watch a Dubuque game this year.

The five lowest volume shooters at even strength

5. Cole McKinney (USNTDP): 8.47 shots per 60 minutes

4. Jacob Cloutier (OHL): 7.62 shots per 60 minutes

3. Roger McQueen (WHL): 7.41

2. Mateo Nobert (QMJHL): 6.58

1. Conrad Fondrk (USNTDP): 5.81

The NTDP doesn’t shock me in this statistical category. They were getting shelled for a large part of their season and struggled to generate offensive zone possession time, and only one NTDP player ended up above a 50% Corsi in games tracked, with most ending up in the high 30% range. Notice one big name on this list? Roger McQueen is going to be a player that, if the Sabres select, I’m going to reiterate the same thing I’ve said all year: you’re not drafting him for the player he his now, but what you think he could be 3 years from now. There were flashes, but his analytic profile did him no favors me in my rankings.

Who shoots the most from dangerous areas of the ice at even strength?

1. Caleb Desnoyers (QMJHL): 21.56 dangerous shots a game per 60

2. Michael Misa (OHL): 17.55 dangerous shots a game per 60

3. Jack Nesbitt (OHL): 15.54

4. Cole Reschny (WHL): 15.11

5. Ben Kindel (WHL): 13.91

6. Gavin Cornforth (USHL): 13.58

7. Justin Carbonneau (QMJHL): 12.43

8. Philippe Veilleux (QMJHL): 12.17

9. Carter Bear (WHL): 11.91

10. Cullen Potter (NCAA): 11.80

The gap shrinks a bit between Desnoyers and Misa once shot quality is taken into consideration. You see the smaller draft-eligible players drop down the list or off the list completely (Benak, Lajoie, and Veilleux) as they struggle to get into the inside to take their shots. Carbonneau and Potter jump into the top 10, and you see who in the draft can get inside to get their shots off.

The five lowest shooters from dangerous areas at even strength

5. Ryker Lee (USHL): 5.25 dangerous shots per 60

4. Braeden Cootes (WHL): 4.37 dangerous shots per 60

3. Conrad Fondrk (USNTDP): 4.35

2. Porter Martone (OHL): 4.26

1. Shane Vansaghi (NCAA): 2.52

These names will probably shock the casual draft observer! From Ryker Lee to Martone, it’s all different reasons, but the summation would be that all of them prefer to make plays through their passing rather than to get inside for their shots. When I say Martone is one of the best playmakers in the draft, it also comes at the detriment that he’s one of the bigger forwards who doesn’t play net front or look for his shot much. Shane Vansaghi has the least ice time at even strength by any forward in the dataset, playing just 7.5 minutes a night on average. His role was a lot of neutral zone puck touches without a lot of offensive zone opportunities, but if you watch his power play shifts, he’s a net-front monster and has great small-area passing.

The playmakers: Most Prolific Passers per 60 at even strength

1. Caleb Desnoyers (QMJHL): 105.39 passes per 60

2. Gavin Cornforth (USHL): 103.19 passes per 60

3. James Hagens (NCAA): 100.69

4. Michael Misa (OHL): 99.12

5. Porter Martone (OHL): 98.08

6. Cole Reschny (WHL): 95.92

7. Jake O’Brien (OHL): 91.93

8. Ben Kindel (WHL): 91.79

9. Carter Bear (WHL): 90.12

10. Mateo Nobert (QMJHL): 89.47

Who’s trying to create scoring chances? % of passes that go to dangerous areas for scoring chances

1. Adam Benak (USHL): 30.67%

2. Ivan Ryabkin (USHL): 28.85%

3. Carter Bear (WHL): 24.53%

4. Ben Kindel (WHL): 24.24%

5. Cole Reschny (WHL): 23.68%

6t. James Hagens (NCAA): 22.72%

6t. Jett Lajoie (WHL): 22.72%

8. Michael Misa (OHL): 20.83%

9. Jake O’Brien (OHL): 20.27%

10. Conrad Fondrk (USHL): 20%

Right outside the top 10 are Caleb Desnoyers and Gavin Cornforth. I think this data shows a lot of different things. First, you can see that players like Bear/Kindel/Reschny/Hagens/Misa/O’Brien are both high volume passers and send a lot of passes to the scoring areas, which tracks with their high assist totals this past year. Ryabkin is a low-volume passer who really only touches the puck in the offensive zone and then sends pucks to dangerous areas, but isn’t very involved in any other facet of the game. Jett Lajoie is similar: he doesn’t pass often, but when he does, he tries to get the puck to the inside through a pass.

Not Going to pile up the assists: Low volume passers in the NHL draft class

5. Roger McQueen (WHL): 60.74 passes per 60

4. Cameron Schmidt (WHL): 58.36 passes per 60

3. Nathan Behm (WHL): 55.17

2. Justin Carbonneau (QMJHL): 47.46

1. Jack Murtagh (USNTDP): 45.29

Murtagh/Carbonneau/Schmidt all look to shoot in the offensive zone. Of the three, only Carbonneau has a respectable 16.7% of his passes going to dangerous areas of the ice, so when he does pass, he’s in the top 20% of the dataset at trying to create scoring chances. Nathan Behm and Roger McQueen were not prolific in transition, nor did the offensive zone game run through them, so they were more passengers with fewer opportunities to make passes.

10 players who were heavily involved in their team’s offensive transitions (% of successful offensive transitions involved in on their line)

1. Shane Vansaghi (NCAA): 52.31%

2. Lynden Lakovic (WHL): 51.25%

3. Porter Martone (OHL): 50.34%

4. James Hagens (NCAA): 48.74%

5. Adam Benak (USHL): 48.24%

6. Malcolm Spence (OHL): 47.96%

7. Ryker Lee (USHL): 47.8%

8. Brady Martin (OHL): 46.67%

9. Ben Kindel (WHL): 46.43%

10. Cole McKinney (USNTDP): 46.08%

5 players who were extremely successful at keeping possession in the entries/exits in offensive transition

1. Lynden Lakovic (WHL): 85.71% success rate

2. Cole Reschny (WHL): 85% success rate

3. Caleb Desnoyers (QMJHL): 82.76%

4. Porter Martone (OHL): 82.46%

5. Philippe Veilleux (QMJHL): 81.48%

Five players not involved in their line’s offensive transitions

5. LJ Mooney (USNTDP): 33.91% involvement (BUT! 78% success rate)

4. Nathan Quinn (QMJHL): 33.67%

3. Ivan Ryabkin (USHL): 31.91%

2. Mason Moe (USHL): 31.18%

1. Roger McQueen (WHL): 31.03%

Five players who turned the puck over the most during offensive transitions

5. Jett Lajoie (WHL): 61.7% success rate

4. Roger McQueen (WHL): 61.36%

3. Jack Nesbitt (OHL): 61.11%

2. Liam Kilfoil (QMJHL): 59.22%

1. Jacob Cloutier (OHL): 55.77%

I think it’s important to note here that there is a lot of context that can be put to these numbers. For instance, Malcolm Spence received a lot of transition passes in the neutral zone and carried them into the offensive zone, which boosted his involvement. LJ Mooney played two games where he was playing down low in a center defensive role, and a lot of the transition game the NTDP deployed ran through the wingers. He was super successful whenever he had to exit the zone or enter the zone, though.

For the most part, transition involvement and success rate are my favorite stats. One of the reasons is that, when you combine the two, it usually indicates the archetype of player we’re dealing with. From how many puck touches they’re getting a game to how they think the complicated processes to enter or exit an offensive zone and maintain control, you see a lot who can be an engine for a line and who’s going to be an offensive zone passenger.

What the Data Says: North American Defensemen in the NHL draft

Shooters Shoot: Most shots/60

1. Will Sharpe (WHL): 17.11 shots per 60

2. Kashawn Aicheson (OHL): 16.71

3. Henry Brzustewicz (OHL): 16.52

Playmakers from the backend: Most pass attempts per 60

1. Matthew Schaefer (OHL): 135.96 passes per 60

2. Dakoda Rheaume-Mullin (NCAA): 130.97

3. Sascha Boumedienne (NCAA): 129.94

Not active in transition or playmaking: lowest pass attempts per 60

3. Sean Barnhill (USHL) 86.4 passes per 60

2. Henry Brzustewicz (OHL): 82.59

1. Kashawn Aicheson (OHL): 70.19

Most active in transition: % involvement in successful offensive transitions

1. Matthew Schaefer (OHL): 46.88%

2. Logan Hensler (NCAA): 36.43%

3. Charlie Tretheway (USNTDP): 35.16%

Least Successful players in transition (% of successful transitions that were attempted)

3. Sascha Boumedienne (NCAA): 61.11%

2. Logan Hensler (NCAA): 55.16%

1. Kashawn Aicheson (OHL): 50.4%

Percentage difference between Kashawn Aicheson (worst in the dataset) and the next defender in defending the blue line for exits and entries:

19(!!!!)%

Good/Bad Defensive Play differentials

Best: Matthew Schaefer (+4)

Worst: Henry Brzustewicz/Kashawn Aicheson (-5)

Truth be told, the best and worst of the defensemen were always the same as I filtered the data. I think Dakoda Rheamue-Mullin might be the most underrated of the defensemen in terms of the impact of his passing and transition data. I think Kashawn Aicheson is, by far, the most overrated defenseman in the class per the tracking data. I found it interesting that Mrtka didn’t show up in anything as doing something well, nor badly. It tracked with his qualitative notes.

Will Sharpe tried so hard to be an offensive force after he was traded, and it led to some impressive offensive tracking numbers, but he was on the ice for an astounding -41 plus/minus. Cameron Reid is another one who didn’t show up as doing anything extremely special in the dataset outside of his blue-line defense. He was one of the best at denying entries in the entire dataset.

Five lists of Five that don’t have a place to live in the draft guide

5 players I wish I ranked 3 weeks later, after watching more film

1. Lukas Sawchyn, RW, Edmonton (WHL)

2. Brady Peddle, LHD, Waterloo (USHL)

3. Max Psenicka, RHD, Portland (WHL)

4. Brandon Gorzynski, LW, Calgary (WHL)

5. Edison Engle, LHD, Dubuque (USHL)

I won’t spend too much time going into each player, but I will give a quick synopsis:

Sawchyn: I ended up watching two games where players played against Sawchyn, and each game he made plays that made me write his number down. His skill level is high, and he plays well with his teammates. I tracked a game of his and didn’t come away impressed, and his size/speed just made me write him off early. Liked how he finished the year after watching him recently.

Brady Peddle reminds me of my feelings towards Ben Danford during his draft year: not really impressed with any one skill, but his name is always on the announcer’s tongue as he’s super involved defensively breaking up plays. A good player in the mid-rounds to play a defensive role, and has a good first pass.

Psenicka slipped through the cracks for me. I don’t think he’s going to be an offensive player in the NHL, but his mobility and play-killing in the WHL stood out. He should’ve been ranked in the 40s for me this year.

Gorzynski just screams a mid-round player who can crack the lineup and play in the bottom six and drive play.

Engle doesn’t have the puck skill of a Luke Osburn, but his skating and activation are intriguing, and I’d be willing to swing on him in the mid-rounds in hopes that he can make a developmental jump in his D+2 to flash offensive ability.

Five Player Comparables I feel comfortable sharing

1. Cole Reschny: Zach Benson-lite. He plays a very Zach Benson game in the offensive zone and in transition. A very smart player without the skating to drive play in the neutral zone.

2. Lynden Lakovic: Alex Tuch-type ceiling. I can’t watch Lakovic and not think of Alex Tuch. Smooth skater and great small-area skill for a player that is 6’4. Is not super physical, and you wish he would use his size a bit more, and he is so great in transition.

3. Kashawn Aicheson: Rasmus Ristolainen 2.0. Aicheson is mean, bombs shots from the point, struggles to complete passes out of his own zone, and makes defensive mistakes that leave me shaking my head. He’s going to have his fans because he’ll punish anyone who comes near him and throws some highlight-reel booming checks.

4. Viktor Eklund: Swedish Brad Marchand-lite. He’s a rat, plays at 100% intensity at all times, and has offensive skill to boot. Does he have the offensive arc of Marchand is the biggest question, and I don’t know if he’ll ever be hated like Marchand, but a smaller player who is going to be a pest.

5. Justin Carbonneau: Poor Man’s Alex Ovechkin in his mid-30s. He has a wicked shot on the power play, seems to disengage in the defensive end but if the opportunity to throw a hit comes around he’s going to go for it, can go for a skate for an entire shift without ever doing anything, but when the puck is on his stick and he has a chance to score or make a play it’s edge-of-your-seat-get-your-phone-out-something-cool-might-happen type of energy.

Five Draft Eligible Players who I couldn’t rank because they’re too small, but they’re so much fun to watch

1. Jonas Woo, RHD, WHL

2. Cooper Dennis, W, USHL

3. Michael Barron*, W, USHL

4. Geno Carcone, F, USHL

5. Sam Spehar, W, USHL

Five Players I think are overhyped in consensus rankings that I haven’t talked about

1. Brady Martin, C, OHL

2. Radim Mrtka, RHD, OHL

3. Jack Nesbitt, C, OHL

4. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, WHL

5. Milton Gastrin, C/LW, J20 Nationell

Final 5 thoughts

1. I think that Logan Hensler is the best RHD in the class. I get that Mrtka is 6’6, but Hensler really played well in the second half of the season, has offensive ability and isn’t a slouch in his own end as well.

2. I would be shocked if Adams took Brady Martin or Jake O’Brien. We haven’t taken a player who is skating deficient in a while, and in a make-or-break year, I don’t see him changing that now.

3. Cullen Potter is going to be a top 15 player in a redraft, and I think he has the potential to be a top 5 player in a redraft. He’s just starting to scratch the surface of what he could become as an offensive weapon.

4. Gavin Cornforth will probably go undrafted and then put up 25 points next year playing alongside one of the bigger names on BC and be a 4th-round pick in 2026.

5. This Sabres draft should go forward at 9th overall and a defenseman at 39th overall. There is too much of a talent gap at 9 between the best available forward/defense to justify taking Mrtka. If I were a betting man, I’d bet on Adams taking Mrtka, but it’s not what I would do.

Photo Credit: Dale Preston/Getty Images