We decided to have a little fun with our final free-agent profile piece on the docket. Last month, I put together our first “free-agent showdown” article, examining the better veteran forward option between Tyler Toffoli and Mike Hoffman. Today, we applied a similar comparison, this time on the blue line.

Unless the Buffalo Sabres get busy on the trade market, we could ultimately end up seeing the same top-six defenders as we did last season. Odds are that they do something in the form of flipping one of them for some scoring help. If they do, they’ll likely add a bottom-pairing caliber veteran as a safety-valve in case of injury.

With that in mind, I decided to have a little fun and compare the profile of two defensemen who I feel are very underrated depth assets in Tim Heed, and Jan Rutta. Formerly of the San Jose Sharks and Tampa Bay Lightning, respectively, Heed and Rutta will hit the open market today, and both represent “Money Ball” type value options on the back end.

We’ll start with Heed who, at 29 years old, has spent the last three seasons serving in a seventh-defenseman role in San Jose. Despite never playing for more than half a season, his underlying metrics when he has played have been quite good, particularly in his own end.

Given the struggles that the Sharks have experienced over the past couple years (23^rd in team xGA rate in 2019-20), it’s a surprise he hasn’t been more of a regular presence on their blue line. The most interesting aspect of his career numbers in San Jose is his underlying data consistency amid a very wide variety of different partners.

In 2018-19, he posted a five-on-five xG rate of 52.21-percent. His primary partner in the 37 games he played was Marc Edouard Vlasic. In 2017-18 when he posted an xG rate of 57.75-percent, he spent the majority of his time alongside Brendan Dillon. Those are two relatively solid partners, and could have conceivably helped shelter him, and subsequently inflate his metrics.

The 2019-20 season was where things got more intriguing. In 38 contests, his xG rate actually improved, up to 54.71-percent. This time he accomplished that rate alongside a combination of Mario Ferraro and Jacob Middleton, to demonstrably weaker defensive assets than he was previously accustomed to.

The only red flag of sorts is the fact that Heed’s OZS rate has never dipped below 60-percent, and there is no existing evidence to irrefutably prove that he’d succeed (to the same degree) with a lower ratio. Other than that, he is a player who has proven that his skills are universally effective alongside a wide variety of different partners, making him a perfect option for the seventh defensive spot in Buffalo.

On the other side, we have Rutta, who has served in a virtually identical role as a rotational defender in Tampa Bay. Though his sample size is a little smaller overall, and he’s a year older, he too has shown a similar level of versatility.

On a very talented Lightning blue line, he stood out with an incredibly high even-strength xGF/60 rate of 3.07, which was head and shoulders above his contemporaries. Unlike Heed, Ruuta’s strong metrics come in the form of his offensive contributions despite holding a much more difficult OZS rate of 46.49-percent in 2019-20.

For all of his positive production, there are two pieces of context here that do not work in Rutta’s favor. The first is the fact that, in the two years he spent with the Chicago Blackhawks before coming over to Tampa Bay, his xG metrics were very poor. The second is that, despite 2019-20 being his best campaign to date, he spent a vast majority of his ice time alongside an elite defenseman in Victor Hedman.

Those two problems might go hand-in-hand. To go a step further, Rutta’s 2018-19 metrics weren’t as impressive as they were this past season. His most common partner then was Braydon Coburn, who is obviously nowhere near the same level as Hedman. This isn’t to definitively suggest that Rutta hasn’t needed Hedman in order to succeed, but there is some potential “situational dependence” there which simply doesn’t exist in Heed’s case.

Now, let’s talk dollars and cents. According to Evolving Hockey, both players are expected to command one-year contracts with similar valuations ($824,100 for Rutta and $790,700 for Heed). So, this part doesn’t factor into the determination as to the more desirable option, as they’re essentially the same. Both are right-handed as well so, that wasn’t a factor either.

This decision is a little more difficult than I anticipated. Our listeners at the Expected Buffalo Podcast are well aware that I’ve been on the Heed hype train for a couple of years now. Rutta is a newer name that caught my eye this past season.

As two players with differing skill sets on the back-end, it kind of comes down to which one makes for a better fill-in who can slot alongside anyone with relative ease. For me, that player is Heed, and I personally would prefer a seventh-defenseman with a stronger defensive skill set versus a more offensively impactful player like Rutta.

Again, they’re close, and either one would be a valuable depth asset for the Sabres, especially if they elect to relieve themselves of one of their incumbent overpriced RHD pieces. If I had to choose, however, I’d stick with Heed, who could be best (and most hilariously) described as a rich man’s Taylor Fedun.

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Charting Hockey

Teammate Data and Advanced Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Photo Credit: Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images