This is going to be an interesting season for a handful of reasons. We’ll have some impact from the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic that will force players to miss games. This season is only 56 games and the Sabres will face the same seven teams in their new division for the duration of the schedule.

We’ll also have games played in two or three-game series in a condensed schedule throughout the campaign. So many factors that can make this an outlier year for the team and player performance.

Anthony and I are going to break down our expectations for the Sabres this season. We’ll likely end up projecting them to finish in a similar spot in the standings, but one may be a little more optimistic than the other.

Chad

It was truly a fascinating offseason for the Sabres. It started by being told there wouldn’t be a general manager change. Then there was and enter Kevyn Adams. For his first season as an NHL general manager, Adams made some nice moves.

They added some big offensive players in Taylor Hall and Eric Staal. They also addressed the bottom of their lineup with the additions of Tobias Rieder and Cody Eakin. Failing to address their blue line or goaltending is something that could hold them back this upcoming season. I’ll get into that here shortly.

Season projection models from the analytics folks such as Micah McCurdy, Sean Tierney, and the Evolving Hockey twins have the Sabres finishing near the bottom of the East Division. I don’t disagree that these projections are that far off from the likely outcome. They’ll be in a tougher division and are still lacking talent in key areas.

Goaltending

So, let’s start with the bad and end on a positive note.

The biggest area of concern for me is the goaltending. I’ve seen poor goaltending results submarine the season of more talented hockey clubs. The Sabres have the worst tandem in the division heading into the year.

Ullmark did show some improvement year over year last season. However, he still finished 30th (all situations) among 50 qualifying goaltenders to play at least 1,000 minutes last season in goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. Now, it should be noted that Ullmark played well at 5 on 5, but really struggled shorthanded. Anthony wrote a nice article about this last week.

The Sabres are going to need at least league average goaltending performance from the tandem of Carter Hutton and Ullmark. At this point, there’s no reason to project that being the case. It’s going to be an issue unless the scoring can outperform that shortcoming.

Team Defense

It’s also not going to be as easy for Hutton and Ullmark from a shot quality faced standpoint. The Sabres were top 10 in shot suppression last year at 5 on 5. It seems unlikely that’ll be the case after losing their top two defensive forwards. Johan Larsson signed with the Arizona Coyotes as a free agent and Zemgus Girgensons is out for the season with a torn hamstring.

Say what you want about these two players, but you can’t deny their defensive impact.

Combine that with the fact that you’re returning the same defense group that has some shortcomings defensively and it looks like a bad mix with the goaltending situation.

Division and Schedule

The division that the Sabres will play in this season is going to be difficult, but no more difficult than their normal division, in my opinion. The top three spots of the Atlantic division was occupied by the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Boston Bruins.

In the newly formed East Division, the Sabres need to finish in the top four. It’s a difficult task, but I feel it’s more likely than finishing in the top three in their regular division. I see it broken up into four tiers in this division:

Tier 1 – Division Leaders

Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers

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Tier 2 – Question Marks

Washington Capitals, New York Islanders, and Pittsburgh Penguins

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Tier 3 – Potential Risers

Buffalo Sabres and New York Rangers

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Tier 4 – Basement

New Jersey Devils

While all of the teams in this division have questions and there is no true complete team; I’d put the Flyers and Bruins at the top. That leaves the Capitals, Islanders, and Penguins as teams that I think could be ripe for the picking. Then the Sabres Rangers and Devils are the projected bottom tier clubs but still have the potential to get into the top four.

The Capitals are aging and have unproven goaltending. The Penguins started to slide last season and are not as deep as we’ve seen Pittsburgh in the past. It always feels like the Islanders shouldn’t be as good as they are, but that Barry Trotz system hasn’t failed them yet. We’ll see if losing an underrated player like Devon Toews hurts them.

I think the Sabres can finish ahead of the Rangers and Devils. Losing Corey Crawford to retirement was a tough blow for the Devils and I don’t believe in the rest of that roster. The Rangers could be improved, but are no better than the Sabres. Their blue line is really bad on paper and I still don’t think they have enough scoring throughout the lineup.

Therefore, if the Sabres can perform better than those two clubs, they just need to finish ahead of two of the three teams in tier two.

Buffalo also has a slight advantage with the current schedule. Micah McCurdy breaks down which teams play a tired team when they’re rested and vice versa. The Sabres have the third-best situation in the division as you’ll see below. The top teams in the division are near the bottom.

Rest advantage / disadvantage for 2020-2021.

Vancouver has the most favourable rest schedule, Montreal and Edmonton the least favourable. pic.twitter.com/SvIDNMvWEV

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) December 23, 2020

Forwards

The Sabres strength comes at forward. They have top six with the offseason moves that can compete with anyone in the league. If Krueger can put the roster together effectively, they can roll a lineup of three scoring lines.

Even though they have issues at other spots on the roster, they do have enough talent at forward that can cover up for that. The coaching staff needs to accept that they’re going to live or die off their offense this season and create a system around that approach.

The additions of Hall and Staal are the primary reason that I believe the Sabres can surprise some people this season. I also am banking on some contributions from Dylan Cozens and a bounce-back season from Jeff Skinner.

Projection

So, let’s get to the actual season projection. I’ve predicted the Sabres are a bottom of the league team the last few years, but I’m going to go a different direction this year. I’m not going to predict them to make the playoffs. I think there are still too many holes to go that far.

I feel that the Sabres will be in the race for a playoff spot late in the season, but will still fall short of their goal. In a regular 82-game season I would predict a 90-point season for the Sabres, which would leave them about six points out of a playoff spot. Over a 56-game season that translates to a 61 point season.

It’ll be a step in the right direction, but will it be good enough to appease Jack Eichel? We’ll have to see when all is said and done if this is how it turns out.

Point Projection – 61 

Division Position – 5th 

Anthony

The timing of this article is a little unique. We’re less than a day removed from Ralph Kreuger essentially confessing that he still has no clue how to optimize his lines, or evaluate his roster (re: comments surrounding his reasons for placing Jeff Skinner on the de facto third line). With that in mind, I want to make it clear that his recent soundbite did not influence my prediction at all. 

At our core, I think we all know that the odds of the head coach suddenly understanding how to effectively balance his lineup was a pipedream. Last season, his inability to do so rivaled that of Phil Housley, whom he replaced two summers ago. 

The Buffalo Sabres are a flawed team. For that reason, their success will hinge on optimal usage, not just in terms of line combination, but situational deployment as well. The odds of the coaching staff suddenly being capable of producing those outcomes seem fairly slim. 

Last month, Chad and I took a look at the position groups in the East Division and determined where Buffalo ranked in each area (i.e. forwards, defense, and goaltending). Let’s take an objective look at the roster to understand why tactical intelligence from behind the bench will be particularly important for the Sabres in 2021. 

A Mixed Bag at Forward

Obviously, the team’s greatest strength comes in the form of their top-six forward group. Unfortunately, that group will have to be effective to a degree that over-compensates for the fact that the rest of the roster is riddled with flaws. If Kreuger’s scrimmage and practice lines are any indication of that that group will look like on opening night (and moving forward), it could spell trouble.

It appears as though Kreuger plans to deploy the Rieder-Eakin-Okposo line similarly to how he used the famed “LOG Line” in 2019-20. Unfortunately, replacing Johan Larsson (one of the best defensive centers in the NHL) with Cody Eakin (one of the worst) makes this an irreplicable model.

Compounding on this issue is the fact that Kreuger plans to deploy his two best defensive center options (Curtis Lazar and Riley Sheahan) as Skinner’s linemates. The eventual inclusion of Dylan Cozens and/or Arttu Ruotsalainen in the top-nine could help resolve this problem, but to start the year, it appears that those two will have to wait for their chance to play with the big club.

Worrisome Defensive Pairings

Defensively, the Sabres are set to return the same group of blueliners that they dressed at the end of last season, sans Zach Bogosian. Since Buffalo did a decent enough job preventing chances in 2019-20 (ranked ninth in the NHL with an xGA/60 rate of 2.37), Kreuger’s system takes some of the preventative pressure off of the blue line. That being said, analytical anchors like Brandon Montour and Rasmus Ristolainen still exist in the defensive top-six and will almost certainly result in negative xG impacts.

As currently designed, the defensive pairings are somewhat interesting. Jake McCabe should help mask some of Ristolainen’s defensive deficiencies, but not if that duo is asked to play close to 20 even-strength minutes per night. The second pairing of Montour and Rasmus Dahlin should be a solid transition tandem, but unless Dahlin takes a big next step (which would of course require Kreuger to allow the 20-year-old to be more offensively creative), they could struggle.

Rounding out the group is a duo that should actually find a lot of success, especially if they’re deployed as the third pair (which all indications are that they will be). From a projected xG standpoint, Colin Miller and Henri jokiharju are expected create positive impacts together, especially if they are sheltered against lesser competition (which they probably don’t need to be, but still). 

Between the Pipes

Like the defensive roster, the Sabres goaltending went unaltered this offseason. Despite some well documented shortcomings, (particularly from Carter Hutton), the front office surprised a lot of fans and pundits alike by not reinforcing their situation in net. 

As the presumed starter, Linus Ullmark is the one player who carries the most individual responsibility on his shoulders for the 2020-21 campaign. Last week, I dove into his metrics, so I won’t re-hash those here. There are areas where he performed well, as well as aspects of his game that require improvement. As a pending UFA next offseason, this year he must prove whether or not he is a capable NHL starter.

One of the keys to the goaltending situation that has been largely overlooked is Ullmark’s health. The frequently injured 27-year-old must avoid missing time this season. If he is sidelined for an extended period, the fate of the team will rest with Hutton. In reserve duty during the 2019-20 campaign, the 35-year-old carried one of the worst GSAx/60 rates in the NHL at -.493.

Standings Prediction

Before you ponder this question, the answer is yes – being skeptical every year does get exhausting. Still, I need to project honestly based on the information at my disposal. It might not be the most enjoyable thing in the world, but I only write things I truly believe.

Each of the Sabres position groups rank in the bottom-three in the East Division in terms of project xGF ratio. Nothing about those skeptical projections sticks out to me as contextually unfair. The Sabres are also stuck in the most competitive division, which obviously makes their path to the playoffs even more complicated.

The “middle of the pack” teams in the East division are all relatively close in terms of talent. Success in 2021 could end up being more coach-dependent than it would be in a typical year. The bench boss who can best plan and optimize his lineup against the same seven opponents all season long will separate their team from the pack.

Personally, I haven’t seen anything from Krueger to indicate that he’ll be up for that challenge. A lot of the point projection metrics out there have the Sabres finishing below .500 this season (and last in the division). I feel that might be a little bit harsh. 

Point Projection: 57

Division Position: 6th

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz.com, and Charting Hockey