We’re just over 24 hours away from the start of the Buffalo Sabres 2021 season. Earlier this week, Anthony and I put together our season preview piece. Today, we’re going to make some projections about players on the team. We have a few different statistics and topics that we’re going to predict who we think will lead in these categories.

At the end of the season, we can pull this article back out again and see if either of us were right on these predictions.

Leading Goal Scorer

Anthony – Victor Olofsson

The reason I’m going with Olofsson here is largely because of his linemates (and because I wanted to pick someone not named Jack Eichel for one of these offensive categories). As it stands, he’ll likely start the season on the second line alongside Eric Staal and Sam Reinhart. As an elite shooter, he’ll once again stake with two players who are extremely capable of carrying the puck in transition (and subsequently, setting the 25-year-old up for scoring opportunities).

Ralph Kreuger didn’t frequently deviate from his line combinations last season, particularly in the top-six. If this trio can produce offense early on, expect them to stick together. Olofsson is also expected to get top power-play minutes once again, which is obviously another big factor here.

Though Eichel is the easy (and probably correct) answer here, he might actually convert to more of a setup man centering the likes of Taylor Hall and Tage Thompson up top. That’s not to say Eichel isn’t capable of both being a goal-scorer and elite playmaker, but I’ll take Olofsson given how the lines are currently drawn up.

Chad – Taylor Hall

We know that Hall is going to at least start the season with Jack Eichel and will likely be on his wing the entire season. We’ve seen the impact that playing with Eichel has had on Jeff Skinner and Victor Olofsson. Hall is better than both of those players.

Hall is two years removed from his 39-goal MVP season with the New Jersey Devils. I don’t think he’ll score at that pace again, but I can absolutely see him scoring at a 30-goal pace if he remains healthy. He’s playing on a one year deal to re-establish himself in the league. He’ll be motivated to have a good season.

Total Points Leader

Anthony – Jack Eichel

Last season, Eichel set a career-high point-per-game rate. Before the 2019-20 campaign was cut short, the Sabres’ captain was on pace for a 94-point season. Now that he has Taylor Hall riding shotgun with him on the left side, there is no reason that he can’t surpass that clip in 2021.

Hall is really the only other player I can see an argument for here. While Eichel is almost certainly the most talented centerman he’s ever skated with, in his 10-year career Hall has only matched Eichel’s 2019-20 point clip once (100-point pace during the 2017-18 season when he won the Hart Trophy with the New Jersey Devils).

Chad – Jack Eichel

Not to cop here, but there’s no need to read the same thing twice. I agree with everything Anthony said above.

Highest 5 on 5 Shot Share (CF%)

Anthony – Jack Eichel

This is a tough one. My initial instinct was to go with Sam Reinhart here, but depending on how the second line is deployed, they might not be a good shot-prevention trio, especially with Olofsson on the left side. For that reason, I’ll go with Eichel again. 

As a team, very few Sabres had a positive Corsi rate in 2019-20. Only four offensive regulars registered over 50-percent in that category.

It’s a near certainty that the Hall-Eichel-Thompson line will be leaned on heavily in offensive zone faceoff situations. It’s also worth noting that despite their scoring acumen, Hall and Eichel are both underrated two-way entities. 

The only circumstance that could work against Eichel here is if Rasmus Ristolainen is once again the most frequently deployed defender while he’s on the ice. Knowing Ralph Kreuger’s tendencies, this is almost certain to occur, but for the sake of optimism, I’ll stick with Eichel.

Chad – Eric Staal

I don’t have any fancy stats to put behind this thought. It’s more of a gut feeling. He’s going to see easier matchups behind Eichel as a second-line center. He’ll also play with another good winger that can control possession in Sam Reinhart.

Staal has looked good in training camp and I feel he’s going to be a big impact player for this team. The Sabres second line could be a reason that they’re a playoff team when the season ends.

Highest 5 on 5 Shot Quality Share (xGF%)

Anthony – Taylor Hall

This one was tough, but there is reason to believe Hall will be the clubhouse leader in this area. Last season with the Arizona Coyotes, he ranked second on the team in xGF rate at 52.38-percent. 

Despite playing with the Coyotes’ two best offensive threats (other than himself) in Conor Garland and Christian Dvorak, this was still an impressive feat. This also came in a year where Hall experienced one of the lowest OZS rates of his NHL career at 51.74-percent.

This once again is based on the reality that Eichel is the most talented center that Hall has ever skated with. There is reason to believe that his xG rate should reach new heights. Like several other categories here, Eichel is another good choice, and since they’re likely to stay attached all season long, they’ll almost assuredly finish with similar on-ice shot-quality share rates.

Chad – Henri Jokiharju

The young defender is likely going to get some favorable matchups this season. He’ll go into the season on the third pair with Colin Miller. They’ll likely get a heavier dose of offensive-zone starts against the lighter competition.

Miller and Jokiharju were actually the top defenders on the team last in shot quality share at 5 on 5, according to Evolving Hockey. The Finnish defender is often forgotten when you think of impact players on the roster. He probably should be playing higher up the lineup, but I expect him to do well in this deployment.

Comeback Player of the Year

Anthony – Tage Thompson

To be honest, it’s hard to really project anyone but Thompson here. He’s likely to begin the 2020-21 season on the top line after his promising start to 2019-20 was cut short due to a shoulder injury. During training camp, it certainly looked like his recovery went well as he was often noticeable as one of the better players on the ice. 

Right or wrong, Thompson’s name will always be attached to the most lopsided trade in team history. If he can become a regular contributor in the top-six, it will go a long way in easing the long-term sting of that deal. 

There really aren’t many other options for this category. Linus Ullmark is really the only one that comes to mind. Even if he shows improvement in 2021, it’s hard to consider him a “bounce-back” player. Give me the guy with the bionic shoulder and the dangerous shot.

Chad – Jeff Skinner

It’s a bounce-back year for Skinner. If you’re not aware of the rules of his career, he puts up an amazing season every other year. This season is an on year for Skinner.

Now, it looks like he’ll start the season down the lineup and it may make things difficult for him. However, if he plays with Dylan Cozens on the other wing, I believe he can put up another great year. It won’t be the 40-goal pace we saw in his first year in Buffalo, but a 25-goal pace in the proper usage isn’t out of the question.

Team the Sabres will Dominate

Anthony – New Jersey Devils

I’ll start by noting that my choices in the next two sections are partially based on the excellent research Chad conducted in his article last month that dove into the Sabres’ historical success rates against their East Division foes. 

Per said article, Buffalo has had a surprising amount of recent success against the Pittsburgh Penguins, earning 66.67-percent of their possible points against them last season. The Devils ranked second at exactly 60-percent. 

For me, this comes down to talent and coaching. Lindy Ruff is a veteran bench boss, but he is in his first year with a team that is largely considered the least talented in the division. Despite making a couple of nice additions on defense, New Jersey is set to return a vast majority of their forward roster from last season, sans Blake Coleman.

Chad – New Jersey Devils

Again, I agree with everything Anthony said above.

Team that will Dominate the Sabres

Anthony – Boston Bruins

Even though the Bruins will be missing David Pastrnak for the first month of the season, the Sabres won’t really get a chance to capitalize on it (Buffalo doesn’t face Boston until February). If that were not the case, I probably would have gone in a different direction here. 

When healthy, the Bruins are still, on paper, the best team in the East Division. I wanted to try and be unique here, but I personally don’t feel that there is another club that poses a similar threat. Based on Chad’s research, Buffalo actually fared worse against the Philadelphia Flyers last season, picking up only 20-percent of their possible points. Still, I feel that Philadelphia is set for a bit of a performance drop-off in 2021, and their lackluster defensive corps might have trouble with the Sabres’ renovated top-six.

Chad – Philadelphia Flyers

This one is pretty easy for me. The Flyers have dominated the Sabres on the ice over the last two years. The Sabres, for some reason, don’t match up well against them.

In the article I wrote a few weeks ago looking at the Sabres’ performance against division opponents, they picked up only 20% of the possible points available in matchups over the last two years. Here’s a refresher of that data:

Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Data via: Evolving Hockey and Charting Hockey