Alright. Everyone has gotten their chance to eat their Arby’s and process the last few days in wake of the Sabres locker cleanout extravaganza, so now we can start to process rational steps forward to try and get a sense of what (should be) upcoming for the Sabres this summer. 

If Jack Eichel is traded, the rest of the Sabres roster will also be subject to their long-term future with the team being re-evaluated. If it’s just Eichel being traded, the return would determine how long the scope would be for the retooling of the roster in a post-Eichel setting. After all, contrary to the last 10 years, it’s possible to make the playoffs almost by accident. If Sam Reinhart is also traded, it’s going to be a full tear down. While it’s the most gloomy future, getting an idea of trading Eichel and Reinhart is the most interesting article topic to investigate without saying “we’ll see” over and over again. 

So with that, if those two are gone, what should happen with everyone else?

Lowest hanging fruit:

Rasmus Ristolainen (UFA Summer 2022): I could’ve included him with Eichel and Reinhart, but we’ve been through it countless times that losing him would not be something that sinks the Sabres. That being said, this poor guy has wanted to be traded for at least the past three offseasons. Cut ties. Let him go spread his big wings somewhere else.

Find a trade partner, because you can:

Colin Miller (UFA Summer 2022): Miller’s name was thrown around during the lead-up to the trade deadline, so I’d expect that he will have as much value to a team looking on an expiring contract for depth on the right side. I don’t expect he would re-sign in Buffalo, and his limited upside and age approaching 30 do not match the criteria to stick around with a much younger roster.

Victor Olofsson (RFA Summer 2022): The Sabres will absolutely continue to market Olofsson as part of their future as a core piece, so I don’t expect that Kevyn Adams will be looking to shop the 25-year-old winger, but let’s say that the Sabres have two more seasons as a bottom NHL team before getting into a playoff conversation. Oloffson at 27 as a powerplay specialist with limited 5v5 contributions may limit this ideal Sabres roster’s ceiling. It may hurt in the short term, but Arttu Ruotsalainen’s powerplay skillset on the off wing mirror those of Olofsson’s, while adding center-playing abilities and a higher ceiling at 5v5.

Tage Thompson (RFA Summer 2023): The 23-year-old salvaged his NHL career outlook this year after an injury-shortened 2020 campaign while getting a fair share of top 6 minutes this spring. Thompson has had his name attached to the Seattle Kraken by some mock drafters recently, so that may be how his time with the Sabres ends, but if he is a member of the organization past the expansion draft, the limited year to year improvement early in his career makes me hesitant to keep Thompson around long term, so it’ll be worth it to explore if another franchise would like to pay for the tools and upside and give up a younger player on defense or a draft pick.

Two Year Audition, Then Re-Evaluate:

All of these players are still in their RFA years so they all could get traded but are also at a point in their careers where I wouldn’t expect it. 

Henri Jokiharju (RFA Summer 2021): After a rocky start to his 2021 season, Jokiharju steadied the ship as the season ended. From isolated impact, it was the best 5v5 defensive season of his young career. I’d anticipate he will accept a one-year qualifying offer and play with Rasmus Dahlin once again next season. Two years should be a good enough audition to determine if he will either (a) stick as Dahlin’s long-term partner or (b) find a role as a lower four defenseman with another left-hander as he approaches his UFA years. Regardless, he’s earned a spot in the team’s plans longer than the next two seasons. Trading him would only be an option if the next two seasons really go poorly or they get blown away with an offer.

Anders Bjork (RFA Summer 2023): Bjork only played 15 games with the Sabres after being traded from Boston, so the verdict is still out on what role he will play for the Sabres next season and in the season after that before his next contract is due, and that sample is even more inconclusive given the lineup shuffling that took place in said 15 games. His role as a penalty killer will likely be determined by whoever the next coach is.

Arttu Ruotsalainen (RFA Summer 2022): Ruotsalainen 17 game debut stint with the Sabres had its ups and downs. He scored 5 goals, all of which came at 5 on 5, but his underlying xG% at 5v5 from Natural Stat Trick fell just below 40%. As I mentioned earlier, R2’s short-term role with the Sabres can easily be similar to that of Olofsson with more 5v5 offense and less of an automatic shot on their powerplay while also having the ability to play center. His two-year outlook will be to determine a middle-six vs bottom-six outlook that will likely depend on if his defensive abilities improve after more time in North America.

Rasmus Asplund (RFA Summer 2021): Asplund has proven this season that he can be a bottom-six mainstay, likely going into next season playing with Girgensons and Okposo. There’s a longer tangent about how this could have been his role to start the season as opposed to bringing in an outside hire to replace Johan Larsson, but that soapbox is not what this post is for. His future on the team will likely be to play this role until it’s no longer cost-effective (aka when the next Rasmus Asplund shows up).

Casey Mittelstadt (RFA Summer 2021): While certainly not having the revelation to the extent Dylan Cozens did this season where Cozens has a place in the hypothetical core for the next upcoming seasons, Mittelstadt certainly performed to a level that took away any thought that the NHL may be too much for him. Part of that comes from sticking to the wing, where he will find himself going into next season and beyond. He will likely get a few single-year contracts as this transitional period takes place for the Sabres, and who knows? Maybe his peak is above replacement level and he hits his draft projection. 

Will Borgen (RFA Summer 2021): It’s a shame that we didn’t get to see more of Borgen this year, as he did a great job of suppressing shots in front of the net and was probably their best right shot defenseman this year. Hopefully, in the next couple of years, they can figure out the best player to play on his left side and optimize his shutdown traits.

Jacob Bryson (RFA Summer 2022): Bryson entered the NHL with a high event reputation and nowhere at season’s end, he has lived up to it. The team probably won’t be great the next few years, so even though his career outlook probably doesn’t extend past a bottom pair peak, he will likely be assigned some heavier minutes in the short term. Will he become a better defender? Will he become better on offense and stay stagnant on defense to where his high-event defensive habits are okay to look past where the offensive talent is worth top 4 minutes? We’ll find out soon enough. Maybe in two years he’ll work up to a Brandon Montour reputation and get a mid-round draft pick in return just like we saw this year. 

Mattias Samuelsson (RFA Summer 2023): The injuries on defense allowed Samuelsson to get 12 games ahead of the schedule of his career outlook, so I think next year can be an extension of his rookie year and the evaluation can continue as if he is a rookie. He did fine in the time he had; maybe he would’ve done even better with less time paired with Ristolainen.

Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen (RFA Summer 2022): I’d like him to have a shot at at least 40% of the starts next year, if not more. The other goalie is a mystery at this point, but he did enough to show that he deserves a chance to get a longer look in Buffalo next year as opposed to more time in Rochester, where Dustin Tokarski will likely get most of the load next year. 

Well there’s no point in buying them out now

If the team is not going to compete the next year or two, there isn’t any urgency to remove the big contracts from the cap, especially since there is a chance they may flirt with the cap floor during this time. 

Kyle Okposo (UFA Summer 2023): I like Kyle. He seems like a nice guy. If he will be around the next two seasons because his contract says so, he might as well let him play and be a leader. If they turn it around much more quickly (as in less than a year), then sure buy him out, but there’s really no need to yet. 

Jeff Skinner (UFA Summer 2027): Same thing. Jeff is a nice guy, and with way less high stakes for at least the next two seasons, there’s no need to explore any and all options to remove his contract. Who knows? Maybe he does turn it around a little bit in a full year with a coach that doesn’t have a vendetta against him. Maybe when the Sabres are good again, he can be matched with some cheaper performers to hide the overvalue of the contract. Any of those can be possible in the remaining six seasons of his deal. That being said, if a team does give a worthy offer for him, I don’t think you can say no, but there’s no need to make concessions just to get him off the books. 

Cody Eakin (UFA Summer 2022): If this bottoming out direction is the one the Sabres are going for next season, you may just have to ride it out for Eakin, even if it’s as a regular scratch. They don’t need to put $750k on the cap for 2022-23 and 2023-24 just to get him off the books for 2021-22. 

Go Live Your Best Life

I don’t see why any of the UFA’s would want to re-sign here when they are the option to sign 31 other places, so for Jake McCabe, Carter Hutton, Tobias Rieder, Riley Sheahan, Matt Irwin, Brandon Davidson, and Michael Houser, good luck in your next chapter. 

Okay, Maybe They’ll Be Back

Linus Ullmark: He won’t be their long-term starter, but sure, if he wants to be back, pair him with UPL for two years each and see what happens. If Erik Portillo continues on an NHL trajectory, he may be ready to pair with UPL by 2023 (and if UPL isn’t the long-term guy, that’s what free agency is for).

Drake Caggiula: He’s certainly not a crucial piece, but with how late in the season he signed here, I’d expect he will be back at least for next year

So Who’s Left?

Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens, and Zemgus Girgensons. These are the only three guys (and Skinner) I see definitely being on the 2023-24 roster. Girgensons because of his contract length and place in the organization as a seasoned vet, but Dahlin and Cozens because of their abilities. While both had room to be better this season, especially Dahlin, there’s no need to keep them out of plans just because Eichel and Reinhart are going; those trade offers would have to be pretty big. 

So here we are. The whole Sabres roster’s future outlook in however many minutes it took you to read this. If you feel down still, Arby’s is probably in driving distance, and the pieces they would get for Eichel and Reinhart immediately would have their own place here, and some of those pieces may even be added to the core right away.

Photo Credit: Sara Schmidle/NHLI via Getty Images