When prognosticating the initial moves of an imminent rebuild, projecting offseason acquisitions comes with an added degree of complexity. As existing veterans like Rasmus Ristolainen, Sam Reinhart, and seemingly inevitably Jack Eichel are traded away, the Buffalo Sabres will be left with a very young, inexperienced team.

Ideally, teams in this position would look to pursue “veteran insulators” to fill out their lineup. This allows for the young assets on the roster to play meaningful NHL minutes while not being forced to play overly difficult matchups (which could subsequently stunt their growth, as we’ve seen countless times).

There are two primary ways a rebuilding franchise could go about obtaining veteran insulators. For a team like the Sabres who have nearly $38 million in salary cap space right now, that financial flexibility should be weaponized. Kevyn Adams would be wise to try and pluck “overpaid” veterans on short-term deals from teams that are tight against the upper-limit of the cap.

Unfortunately, Michael Russo seems to think this will not be Adams’ approach. In his article posted yesterday for The Athletic, he stated that the second-year GM would rather not take on “bad contracts” this offseason in what Russo accurately described as an “obvious rebuild”. For a team that would be $27 million below the salary cap floor sans Eichel, this seems totally incomprehensible.

Whether or not that’s truly the case remains to be seen. Regardless, there is another way to acquire short-term veteran talent, and that of course, is via the UFA market. While Buffalo is probably one of, if not the least attractive free-agent destination in the NHL, they have the cap space to perhaps “overpay” for some older assets seeking short-term contracts.

The Sabres could also be an attractive option for players who want a “prove-it” deal. This would entail a one-year contract for an asset seeking top-six minutes in Buffalo as an opportunity to produce scoring numbers and turn themselves into an asset that can be flipped at the trade deadline (or at worst, become a more attractive free-agent target on the open market next summer).

In this piece, we’ll examine the unrestricted market at forward.

Top-Six Minute-Eaters

As the roster currently stands, the Sabres have 12 NHL forwards under contract (a figure that includes Eichel). For the sake of visualization, here is how the forward lines would be roughly constructed:

Obviously that isn’t an acceptable group to take into the 2021-22 season, even in a rebuilding year. The Sabres would be wise to pursue not only additional depth pieces, but also top-six caliber assets that can help push their youth down the lineup, and allow them to develop without the burden of drawing extremely difficult assignments every night.

Let’s start from the top and work our way down for a team that could realistically use two-to-three wingers and center or two as well.

Derek Stepan

On paper, Stepan is the perfect player for the Sabres to target when free agency opens this week. At 31 years old, he is coming off an injury-shortened season where he produced six points in 20 contests for the Ottawa Senators.

Prior to his one-year stint in Canada’s capitol, Stepan spent three seasons with the Arizona Coyotes, serving as their top-line center. While his most productive days are certainly behind him, the Sabres don’t need him to be a high-scoring version of himself. He would only need to be a player capable of handling tough minutes without being a liability from an xG standpoint.

Handling difficult matchups is certainly something Stepan is familiar with. Since the 2016-17 season, he has routinely ranked among the top-100 forwards in the NHL in terms of quality of competition (as determined by RAMP xG).

At this point in his career, Stepan would undoubtedly like to jump on with a playoff contender. Unfortunately, his lackluster offensive totals in a year where he suffered a long-term injury won’t help his cause as a UFA. His best move might be to join a team like the Sabres on a one-year deal and try to rehabilitate his value and become a tradable piece at the deadline.

According to Evolving Hockey’s contract projections, Stepan is expected to command something resembling a one-year deal worth just north of $1.1 million AAV. That’s a projection the Sabres could easily justify overpaying.

Nick Bonino

This one is a little more tricky. Despite being a modest offensive producer on the wrong side of 30, Bonino probably has a stronger reputation and could be seen as a strong depth fortification option for a contending team. That said, he too would be a solid center option to serve in the Sabres’ top-six for next season.

In 2020-21, Bonino produced 26 points in 55 games, which was pretty much on-par with his career rate of just over 37 points per 82 games. Though he tends to get crushed in his on-ice Corsi rates, he does an excellent job of helping his team limit shot quality-against. At this point in his career, he’s a defensive centerman who can add a little bit of offense as well.

Another selling point here is the fact that he’s played for some very respectable organizations which experienced success while he was there. In fact, his squads have qualified for the postseason in 10 of his 12 seasons at the NHL level. For a team like Buffalo that has emphasized cultural changes, he could certainly help steer the younger players in the right direction.

Per Evolving Hockey, Bonino is expected to sign a two-year deal worth $2.55 million AAV. That’s a pretty manageable ask for a player with his experience and year-over-year consistency.

Nick Ritchie

In a surprising turn of events on Monday afternoon, the Boston Bruins elected not to tender a qualifying offer to Ritchie. As a 25-year-old winger coming off the best base-scoring year of his career (26 points in 56 games), he could be a very interesting option for the Sabres. Not only could Buffalo see him as an insulator in the middle-six, but given his age, a potential piece of the future as well.

As a player, Ritchie is pretty offensively inclined, but still posts positive defensive metrics, for the most part. The biggest reason why he’s perhaps underrated as a player is because his expected-offense does not match his actual production (individually or on-ice). This is explained in part by his below-average finishing impact. On top of his impressive underlying numbers, he brings a great deal of physicality in his game.

The market for Ritchie will be interesting. Teams might be scared-away by the fact that Boston is electing to walk away from such a young asset with strong underlying numbers. As a former high first-round pick (10th overall in 2014) he has never lived up to his draft pedigree. Still, he has value and is an ideal rehabilitation candidate for a team like the Sabres.

EH has Ritchie’s next contract at three-years, around $3.5 million AAV. That seems high for an RFA that isn’t even getting qualified, but it’s a price the Sabres should jump at (especially if they can reduce the term to two years), given their cap space.

Tweeners/Depth Options

Mathieu Perreault

Obviously, the crop of top-six caliber free-agents (who could realistically consider joining a rebuilding Sabres team) is pretty scarce. There are however, a handful of depth forwards who are either looking to re-establish their value as NHL assets, or searching for their last NHL contract before calling it a career.

Perreault probably qualifies as the latter. At 33 years old, he is a veteran winger who continues to post outstanding defensive metrics despite his age. As one of two players on this list who were waived last season, Perreault should garner some interest now that he no longer carries a $6 million cap hit.

On top of his defensive acumen, Perreault can contribute on offense as well. His 19 points in 56 games last season, a 28-point pace (over 82 games) is a decent rate for a bottom six entity. Since 2018, he ranks right around the middle of the pack with his Winnipeg contemporaries, carrying an xGF/60 rate of 2.14.

Overall, Perreault ended up ranking second among Winnipeg Jets forwards in overall shot-quality impact in 2020-21, posting an xGF rate of 52.13%. Nikolaj Ehlers and Nate Thompson were his only teammates who also posted rates higher than 50% for a lackluster Jets team. To be fair, Perreault’s metrics came in a favorable deployment environment. Only Trevor Lewis had a lower QoC rate for the Jets in 2020-21

Per EH’s model, Perreault is expected to sign a two-year deal worth around $1.84 million AAV.

Derek Ryan

We’ll cap-off this section with a familiar name. Folks in the analytics community (myself included) have been calling for the Sabres to pursue Ryan ever since Jeff Skinner began to struggle in his second season with Buffalo. During their time together as members of the Carolina Hurricanes from 2015-18, the two posted very strong metrics (56.82% xGF rate as a duo in 939 minutes-played at five-on-five).

Now, at age 34, Ryan may not make sense to place with a scoring entity, but his impacts as a defensive centerman are still very solid. In fact, he ranked first among Calgary Flames forwards in 2020-21 with an xGA/60 rate of 1.59 (a near match for his actual GA/60 rate of 1.61 on the year).

Despite only posting 13 points in 43 games last season, Ryan is expected to claim the most lucrative contract of all three players in this section. According to EH, his next deal is likely to be a two-year agreement for just under $2 million AAV.

Reality Check

So, I recognize that this article is a little depressing. None of these names are exciting, but this is a bonafide rebuild year for the Sabres. In fact, it’ll probably be this way beyond just the 2021-22 season. With that in mind, they’re almost certainly not going hunting for any of the “in demand” players on the open market (nor should they).

As previously stated, the much more prudent approach to filling out the lineup would be to shop for capable veteran cap dumps on the trade market. Names like Tyler Johnson, Brett Connolly, and Jason Zucker come to mind at forward alone.

Not only are the available players more impressive as potentially tradeable assets, but their current clubs would likely pay the Sabres in futures just to get them off the books. Seems like a no-brainer, but don’t be surprised if Adams turns his sights to the UFA market (hopefully in addition to the trade market).

Charts and Metrics courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and JFresh Hockey

Photo Credit: Andy Marlin/NHLI via Getty Images