Rasmus Ristolainen and Jake McCabe are no longer Sabres. The blue line is now wide open for Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju to be the Sabres top pairing. In this transition season where the results in the win-loss column aren’t going to be the end-all-be-all to determine a successful season for the team, the development of these two playing what will likely be the bulk of important minutes against other team’s top forward lines is going to be a major factor in the future outlook of the Sabres organization beyond 2022.

Well, it’s not going to be that new of territory

So here’s some news: Rasmus Dahlin played the most 5v5 minutes for the Sabres defense last season at 994 minutes in 56 games (~18:24 per game). Ristolainen was second on the team with 860 minutes in 49 games (~17:33 per game). Then Jokiharju was third on the team at 773 minutes in 46 games (~16:48 per game). As far as this is concerned, both players found themselves playing a bulk of the 5v5 minutes. On top of that, the Dahlin-Jokiharju pair led the Sabres in 5v5 minutes. 

How did the pair perform?

Per Moneypuck, the Dahlin-Jokiharju pair finished with a 47.1% expected goal share during that time last season (2.26 xGF/60, 2.54 xGA/60). This was an improvement for the pair after a 2019-20 season where they registered a 43.5% expected goal share in about 102 minutes in 34 games (1.75 xGF/60, 2.28 xGA/60). As you can see, both their expectation of goals for and against rose in 2021, but since the difference between the two relatively decreased, and considering that they were playing on the worst team in the NHL last season, and after you consider the documented struggles Dahlin had to start last season, you have to take the hindsight wins where you can. 

Their share of shot quantity improved as well from 2020 to 2021, as their CF% rose from 45.3% in 2020 to 49% in 2021. Again, I’m going to rule this as “fine”. They managed to get back to within 15 shots over 36 games within an even shot share (courtesy of my excellent screenshotting skills) after a horrific start.

Another place of assurance that I take from the pair’s 2021 is that in both quality and quantity, their on-ice shot numbers on offense rose, and considering Dahlin’s upside with the puck, that’s very important to the direction of the team. If the team as a whole is expected to struggle to maintain the puck, it’ll be even more important for Dahlin to contribute to a positive shot share when he is on the ice, almost to “make up” for the time that may be lost when the top D pair isn’t on the ice next season. 

One final thing to monitor at the start of the season is how this pair’s usage stats will fare compared to where they would have been last season. With Ristolainen in Philadelphia, it would probably be expected for the pair’s percent of d-zone-starting shifts to increase and, with that, the percent of shifts starting in the o-zone to decrease. Part of this I would hope is paired with increased offensive zone starts for Jacob Bryson given his high-event tendencies to try and aid his development in his second NHL season.

Individually, looking at JFresh’s Scorecards

For Jokiharju, the 34th percentile for WAR would be interpreted as him performing better than about a third of the distribution of defensemen in the NHL. This would suggest his play in the first three years of his career places him in the role of a fringe middle d-pair player who is better defensively than offensively. It’s probably good for Jokiharju that this is a transitional season for the Sabres organization because his WAR has decreased from season one to season three and he will need a major turnaround back in the right direction to prove that he can be the complementary piece for Dahlin on the top pair. For the organization, if this pairing struggles to be an NHL top pairing, and Dahlin shows success in time independent of Jokiharju, then they will be able to explore the market for a different right-shot defenseman.

Rasmus Dahlin’s first three seasons place him around the 65th percentile for WAR, which would be a fringe top-pair defenseman. Unlike Jokiharju, Dahlin bounced back and improved his estimated WAR from season two to season three, with most of that coming on the offensive side of the ice, as we’ve seen throughout the post so far. The defense, however, stayed stagnant from seasons two to three. The 71st percentile on offense? Absolutely where it should be to be an NHL team’s top defenseman. At the 32nd percentile on defense, however, he really needs to take a step in a positive direction. Will this be a challenge given the weak roster? Sure, but given Dahlin’s talent profile and reputation, his performance needs to show signs that it can transcend the play of the rest of the team. I’d hope Dahlin can reach the 50th percentile as a defender at even strength and let his offensive and transitional talents help drive the improvements in expected goal and shot share.

Do Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju have what it takes to be a top d-pair in the NHL? Let’s wrap up with every statistician’s favorite line: Who’s to say? We will need to see how Don Granato uses the pair at the beginning of his first full season before we understand what is expected of them. All in all, they both need to be better than they were last year; both as a pair and individually.