We’re on the eve of October and Dallas Stars RFA Jason Robertson remains unsigned following the expiration of his ELC. While not too much negotiating has taken place in the media, Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News offered what appears to be the crux of the impasse:

The Stars have $7-8 million in available cap space (depending on the roster makeup) to sign Robertson, who had 41 goals and 38 assists last year. Dallas likely does not have enough cap space to sign Robertson to a long-term contract approaching $9 million annually without moving pieces off their roster.

Matthew DeFranks, Dallas Morning News

Jason Robertson led the Stars with a 41-goal campaign and added 38 assists to finish just short of Joe Pavelski’s team-high 81-point season (27G 54A). Dallas finished with 46 wins but fell just short in the first round of the playoffs to the Calgary Flames in 7 games. Pete Deboer will replace Rick Bowness behind the bench in 2022-23.

As camps roll on across the NHL, teams will start doing their due diligence on the situation in Dallas, and according to The Former Instigators, one team that may have already checked in may have been the Buffalo Sabres.

Offer Sheet Door Is Closed

The offer sheet possibility appears to not be in the cards, as teams would’ve started those negotiations months ago. And the league’s general managers continue to have very little interest in the concept outside of Montreal and Carolina going back and forth the last couple of years, which only furthered the collective “fear” that submitting one will only lead to that team “getting revenge” a few years down the road. *sigh*

Regardless, Buffalo would be unable to even offer one for any AAV from $4.201M to $10.503M because the Golden Knights own their 2023 third-round pick. If Robertson is wearing the blue and gold for his next contract, it’s coming via trade. 

Evolving Hockey projects Robertson’s RFA contract extension at 6 years $7.856M. The rumored $9M ask, keeps the offer sheet opportunity on the outside looking in.

Jason Robertson, The Player

In his first two seasons in the NHL, Robertson has 58 goals and 66 assists for 124 points in 125 games (plus 1 assist in 3 games in 2019-20). Before Jack Eichel surpassed a point per game in both 2018-19 and 2019-20, the last Sabre to reach that mark was Thomas Vanek in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season (20G 21A in 38 GP). Over a full NHL season, it hadn’t been done in Buffalo since Derek Roy had 81 points (32G 49A) in 78 games and Jason Pominville was just short with 80 points (27G 53A) in 82 games in 2007-08. 

Coming from a team that was usually thought of as defense-first last season, Robertson is putting up those numbers in his age 22 season is impressive and in no way a fluke. Look further, and his defensive results were also very impressive. Based on the Twin’s GAR data, Robertson was better than 4 of every 5 players defensively while being at the top of the league offensively, which is a feat that no Sabre has reached that level of analytical star power (Samson Reinhart did get close in 2021 but that’s a different story for a different day), and doing this while driving play from the wing makes it that much more unique of a skillset. (Link to Card)

With multiple salary cap jumps expected by the NHL over the next few seasons, a $9M-$10M contract for a 23-year-old Robertson should not be something the Sabres fear, especially for the next handful of years. Dallas probably knows that as well, but their lack of cap space has them struggling to agree without losing their current roster build. He is also of course 2 years younger than Tage Thompson who has just inked for $2M-$3M less. Sure, Skinner will be at $9M until 2027 and the young Sabres core will also have a chance to cash in for big paydays in the next handful of years, but those will be given out with the hopes of those players reaching a level of production that Robertson did last year, and his similarity scores put him in the very good company of guys who continued to perform at a star level in the next handful of seasons. 

Jason Robertson, The Trade Concept

Remember the Ryan O’Reilly trade? No, the original one, when the Colorado Avalanche failed to negotiate a long-term contract with a 23-year-old O’Reilly and Tim Murray got on the phone to bring the disgruntled center to Buffalo to pair with rookie Jack Eichel, handing out a 7-year, $52M contract, which at the time was the largest contract handed out in Sabres history. (Link to Card)

The ability to trade for Robertson is uncannily similar. And there isn’t any reason to have to worry about accelerating the rebuild “too quickly” as some suggest happened in the Tim Murray era. For one, the Sabres undoubtedly won that trade regardless of how O’Reilly’s time in Buffalo ended.

Plus, the 2015 and 2022 paths are fairly different to this point:

• The current Sabres have done a pretty good job of flipping the roster since the start of the COVID season, and since last year’s Sabres weren’t built to lose as much as that they were so young that losses would add up, the 2022-23 Sabres are past that stage of roster building. And because of that, their top prospects are either already in the NHL or on the doorstep of having more than a cup of coffee in Buffalo next season, which gives the organization a better understanding of what they have in the talent pool
• Outside of the Robin Lehner trade meaning Colorado had to acquire the 31st pick in the 2015 draft instead of the 21st, the other trades made in 2015 were mutually exclusive with the O’Reilly trade. The current version of the Sabres find themselves in a place where they have most of their roster set for the upcoming season where their core can grow together and their depth can easily be replaced by the next wave of prospects. Adding one top-line player at what might not even be the expense of current players on the team would not hurt the development of the rebuilding efforts.
• If they do go ahead and make a couple of bigger trades, they do still have a pretty large pool of assets and are limited to 50 organizational contracts, so some pieces will have to go at some point.

What Could This Trade Look Like? Well, That Isn’t Very Clear.

The framework of the O’Reilly trade might be the best place to start – Two former first-round picks, a former second-round pick, and an upcoming second-round pick. It probably won’t match up perfectly with the Sabres current prospect pool, but the Sabres also acquired Jamie McGinn from Colorado and Robertson is probably a better player than 2014-15 O’Reilly (and the Stars can use the 40-goal season argument to justify that), so this isn’t the same trade to that much of a literal point.

Isak Rosen and Noah Ostlund seem to be the two easiest names to dangle in a trade in a way that matches with the ROR framework as two mid-first-round picks. The Sabres are very high on Jiri Kulich and JJ Peterka, so trading a late-first or early-second round pick in a parallel sense doesn’t seem like something the Sabres would want to do (Maybe the Stars would have interest in Prokhor Poltapov). Would this also be the best place to trade Ryan Johnson?

I also don’t think the Sabres would be too keen on trading their 2023 first-round pick at this point unless it was lottery protected, so Dallas would probably want more. With three second-round picks in 2023 currently (PHI, BUF, VGK), two of those could be a replacement or conditions if 2023 first doesn’t mature.

It’s also not very likely that the Stars would simply be trading Robertson to concede their future (if they simply didn’t want him, they’d have already moved him around the draft. A holdout is still a possibility that they might be willing to eat if it meant they could keep him past 2023 with a more clear salary cap picture). Would they want an established NHL forward in the return? Maybe, but the only players that would likely fit this mold would be Victor Olofsson (but he just signed an extension – BUT the Stars did sign his brother – BUT this is a lot of speculating and extra buts) or Dylan Cozens, who the organization is also very high on as a potential core piece for the long term.

From the Stars side, Joe Pavelski’s $5.5M and NMC come off the books after this season, but both Roope Hintz and Denis Gurianov will each be RFAs next season. With that in mind, maybe acquiring prospects is the move, but they wouldn’t want only wait-and-see lottery picks.

As much as the Sabres and Amerks front offices would not want to make this move, Dallas might have their eyes on Jack Quinn. While he doesn’t have the same profile as Robertson, if anyone in the Sabres organization has 40-goal potential that isn’t named Tage Thompson, it’s Quinn. If Quinn ends up on the table, does that also mean Kevyn Adams and the Sabres front office would ponder deciding between Quinn and Matthew Savoie? Would the team want the boat or the mystery box that could be a boat?

Not every trade is a walk in the park. To get an outstanding player, the return will hurt more times than not.

And in this case, the Sabres would be getting a good player.

As for thinking of trade possibilities, I’d imagine it comes down to picking three pieces from each of these this or that: (And also probably a fourth piece that’s more likely than not a mid-round 2024 or 2025 draft pick)

Jack Quinn or Matthew Savoie	Isak Rosen and Noah Ostlund
2023 First Round Pick	2023 Second Round Pick and Philadelphia’s 2023 Second Round Pick
Victor Olofsson and Ryan Johnson	Dylan Cozens

Thanks for reading through this whole post. Maybe it’s the start of a signature trade from Kevyn Adams. Maybe Robertson re-signs tomorrow. Who knows. Is training camp over yet?

Data via: Evolving Hockey