As the Buffalo Sabres near the end of their preseason campaign, the complexion of the opening night roster has become clearer. In addition to roster competitions that have taken place toward the bottom of the lineup, it seems that Don Granato has established his desired line combinations (to start the year at least).

So, what have we learned from the Sabres’ undefeated preseason run to date? From the forwards to the goaltenders, let’s take a look at what we’ve been able to glean with the regular season just a week away.

Thompson and Skinner Succeed Sans Tuch

Last night’s game served to vindicate Granato’s decision to remove Alex Tuch from the de facto top line. This isn’t an indictment of Tuch’s game, mind you. Quite the opposite.

As a winger with play-driving capabilities, Tuch could serve as a useful asset among a myriad of different linemates. Granato seems to recognize his impact and has elected to saddle him on Casey Mittelstadt’s flank.

The 2022-23 season is likely Mittelstadt’s last opportunity to show he belongs in the Sabres’ plans moving forward. If he can’t turn things around with Tuch by his side, there will be no more excuses for him. That’s all well and good, but it remains to be seen to what degree Tuch’s presence helped Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner in their respective “comeback” campaigns last season.

If Tuesday night’s contest against the Carolina Hurricanes is any indication, Granato should feel confident with his assessment. Tuch continued to drive play away from his regular linemates from last season, while Thompson and Skinner displayed no drop-off in on-ice production sans Tuch.

With rookie winger, Jack Quinn manning the left wing, the Mittelstadt line led the way, posting an xGF rate of 78.63% while serving as the top forward trio (in terms of TOI at even-strength) against Carolina. Conversely, Vinnie Hinostroza did not look out of place on the right side of the Thompson-Skinner line which held an impressive xGF rate as well (68.37% on the evening).

This is only one game and we shouldn’t draw any conclusions from it. That said, if Thompson and Skinner can replicate their production from last season without Tuch, it gives the Sabres a great deal of flexibility by being able to use arguably their best winger to bolster other forward lines.

The 12^th-13^th Forward Spots

This one is interesting. Based solely on recent line construction, it seems as though JJ Peterka has the inside track on the 12^th forward spot in the starting lineup. For as exciting as the 20-year-old is as a prospect, it’s curious that he seems to rank ahead of Hinostroza on the depth chart.

While Peterka hasn’t performed poorly in the preseason, Hinostroza has played better. Given Peterka’s youth and waiver exemption, it’s even more curious that he’d get the nod. For now, it does seem as though Hinostroza will begin the year as the team’s 13th forward, but that’s subject to change as the year goes on.

These numbers take the entire pre-season into account and honestly I can't make a good case for Peterka to start in the lineup over Hinostroza.

The numbers favor Hinostroza and so does the eye test so far in camp. pic.twitter.com/aAHuNSqCzL

— Chad DeDominicis (@CMDeDominicis) October 5, 2022

And what about Riley Sheahan? If Peterka does indeed secure an NHL roster spot to begin the year, Sheahan will likely be waived to the AHL unless the team plans on keeping 14 forwards in the lineup. The 30-year-old veteran has appeared in just one preseason game so far, in which he performed very well.

To go a step further, Brandon Biro has made a strong case for an NHL role as well. Among Sabres forwards who have appeared in at least 20 minutes of preseason action, he leads the team with an xGF rate of 63.86%.

More than anything, this all begs the question as to why Sheahan needed to be signed in the first place. Players like Biro, Brett Murray, Lukas Rousek, and Sean Malone could all justify NHL looks in the event of injury, so there wasn’t a need for another veteran roadblock. Don’t forget that Anders Bjork still exists as well.

Nothing is set in stone yet, but it will be interesting to see who receives playing opportunities at the bottom of the forward lineup, both to start the season, and as the year progresses.  

Defensive Combinations

The situation on the blue line is a bit more cut-and-dry. The NHL pairings seem to be set, as they’ve remained relatively consistent throughout training camp. As for the competition between Lawrence Pilut and Casey Fitzgerald for the team’s seventh defensive spot, Fitzgerald’s recent injury seems to have forced a decision for the time being.

Pilut’s preseason play has justified consideration for the defensive top-six, and he has proven deserving of a permanent NHL role. The caveat here is his waiver exemption. If the Sabres were to try and send Fitzgerald back to the AHL, he’d need to pass through waivers. Pilut on the other hand, would not.

Regardless, I think the Buffalo brass will ultimately take that risk once Fitzgerald returns from injury. Pilut has shown that he’s demonstrably better, and the odds of Fitzgerald being claimed are likely low. If it weren’t for the coaching staff’s fondness of Jacob Bryson, Pilut would be an easy choice for the third-pairing by my estimation.

In just over 30 minutes of preseason action, he leads all Sabres defensemen with an xGF rate of 62.68%. Again, preseason advanced stats are a bit silly to analyze given the small samples and wide variance of competition/teammate quality. Still, even by the eyeball test, he’s been a bright spot on the back end since camp started.

As for the top of the defensive depth chart, Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson seem to be the de facto top pairing. The second tandem of Owen Power and Henri Jokiharju appears set in stone as well, despite Jokiharju’s continued struggles and lack of apparent development. Rounding out the group is Bryson and free-agent acquisition, Ilya Lyubushkin.

The Plan in Net

Though I still think he begins the season as the Rochester American’s starting netminder, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has at least made things interesting. He and Craig Anderson have handled the lion’s share of preseason minutes between the pipes for Buffalo.

In Luukkonen’s two appearances, he’s stopped 44 of the 46 shots he’s faced. That’s fantastic, but the Sabres will likely want to see him develop some semblance of consistency before they let him play ahead of a “known entity” like Anderson.

Despite a very small preseason workload, Eric Comrie seems set as the team’s starter. He’s only seen action in one preseason contest, but that’s not surprising. Expectations around him are high, but if his play last season with the Winnipeg Jets can be replicated over a larger sample, he’ll be a breath of fresh air in Western New York.

Closing Thoughts

Overall, there were no real surprises that came out of the preseason, and the vibe around the team remains positive. Aside from navigating some potential shuffling at the bottom of the lineup, the roster is shaking-out as expected.

The most intriguing development for me is Tuch’s absence from the top line. If Skinner and Thompson can manage to produce with someone like Victor Olofsson on the right side instead of Tuch, the Sabres’ situational flexibility will receive a major boost down the lineup. If his presence can finally turn Mittelstadt into something resembling an NHL center, Buffalo could surprise a lot of teams in 2022-23.

Advanced Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Hockeyviz