Touching grass.

It’s definitely an overused phrase for sure, but maybe considering its usage is almost always a solution to being Too Online, it’s perhaps not used enough at the same time.

On Thursday Night, the sky put on a show. Red streaks in the sky, while faint, shined above head. After an unsuccessful attempt to see the show over the summer, I had gotten the glimpse on a hill adjacent to the nearby rec center, even without the camera assist. With a couple street lights and more people coming in and out of the area, I searched for nearby parks and headed further to the east to try and get a darker view, ending up at Bullis Park in Macedon. There was one other car there, but they were on their way out, and there was plenty of space to get that darker view. So there I am inside the penalty area (I think) of a soccer field at the park, looking up not only to a better view of the red streaks in the air, but accompanying greens among the clear look at the stars as well. And once it sunk in how cool it was, there came the thoughts…about the Sabres, fresh off their 3-1 loss to the Kings.

But with the territory, I wasn’t doom scrolling the same rehashed 4 or 5 thoughts of defeat. Nor was I actively scrolling an active albeit incredibly frustrated Discord. I was alone in the grass with the distractions overhead of something that is incredibly rare, something that people have on bucket lists. Something that people travel to some of the most Northern parts of the world to see one time was right here, and it came only 6 months after another once in a lifetime event with the total solar eclipse coming through the same area, bookending the end of year 13 and what could very well be year 14 of something that feels at this point almost more rare. (sorry sorry moving on)

The screenshot below was from a post I started writing, according to WordPress, on January 24. I came back to it once in February and once in March, but moved on. It didn’t feel like the time to write further and publish.

Even with a winless start to the season with moments that legitimately felt like a sick joke standing in the way of the puck entering the net (2 save of the year candidates against in 3 games? Seriously?). I think I still feel the same way that I can’t be mad at the team themselves. Rasmus Dahlin is now the longest tenured Buffalo Sabre but has only been around for half of the drought. Every other player from there has been around less.

Am I supposed to be mad at Lindy Ruff? He was there at the beginning, but obviously a lot has happened since. I believe him when he says that the players have been competing hard and want to be pushed and are responding correctly to being pushed. But how much experience and perspective can he offer through a ridiculous series of unfortunate events to start this season? Is there just too much of a talent gap?

But is this team as bad as their start suggests or a playoff drought of this magnitude suggests?

Last season had the best 5-on-5 results of the entire drought alongside an 84 point season being the third most in a season behind the 2022-23 season and the first season of the drought in 2011-12. Now obviously the standard isn’t that hard to overcome considering the other teams of the drought, but especially in the department of scoring more than your opponent, that’s supposed to lead to positive results more often than not. And yet look at the team that did get that second wild card spot!

We can’t call it an excuse since the next layer, at least from the Sabres perspective, was that an inability to get tie games to overtime for an extra point here and don’t get anyone started on the powerplay — a 20% powerplay, not even the 23% they had in 2022-23, probably gets them in as well. It’s hindsight, but if the team has made a significant enough jump to acquire more points than games played the last two seasons, is it really fair to weigh the full 13 years on this current group? I just can’t get there with how close they are to getting over the hump. Every season might feel like a further rock bottom, but I’m sorry that’s just not true given the other 2-3 rock bottoms of the last 13 years.

That comparison feels like the epitome of there being some things you just can’t control.

I dunno, man, indeed.

If there’s blame, is there anywhere to direct it?

Am I supposed to be mad at Kevyn Adams? And if I am, how mad am I supposed to be? When I think of how his hiring went down, it reminds me of the 8th season of The Office started where one day there was one plan and the next day Andy Bernard is hand picked as the new manager. Kevyn had to have been equally surprised, no? But it’s not like you say no to that job offer.

But other than the difference between a mockumentary that was trying to tread water with guest stars after losing his star and a hockey team in limbo through a pandemic making major org changes, every move Adams made in rebuilding a new staff from the scorched earth removal of the old one came in the context of surrounding himself with people that could assist the on job learning process and fill the holes where he lacked the knowledge. Jason Karmanos could be and could have been at the time a GM in the NHL and joined him as an Associate GM, right hand man, whatever else you want to call it, and then from there brought Sam Ventura over from Pittsburgh, leading to the creation of what is probably a top 3-5 analytics brain trust in the NHL with Matt Barlowe and Dom Galamini joining on a year or so later.

That all reads like someone who understands their limits and knows how to build up a brain trust and has learned on the job since, and from that perspective and that perspective only, I don’t think we can criticize him for that foundation to get them to this current place (i.e. The best on ice results from a GM during this 13 years).

As his 5th season as the team’s GM starts, it’d be really hard to say that the team isn’t in a better place right now than they were when it started both at the big club and down on the farm. But even 5 years is an overdue amount of seasons between playoff appearances in the NHL with the current structure, if we step out of the Sabres framework. Since we’re still touching the grass and looking in the sky (thought I’d forget we started the post with that analogy didn’t you), let’s say that the pandemic’s timeline is shifted 3-4 days later and the Sabres have the chance to beat the Canadiens on March 12 and sneak into the 2020 bubble, and hey maybe Linus Ullmark returns to the ice red hot and the Sabres steal their opening round playoff series against Penguins and make the top 16. The drought would be over on the technicality of the bubble and making the “main” bracket. Would we be more patient? After the way 2021 fell apart, it’s not ridiculous to think that the coaching change and roster overhaul wouldn’t have still happened to bring us to this same moment in time, so are we more patient without the 13 year sized umbrella?

Going back to the concept about drought fatigue, I can’t help but think it’s why this start feels this frustrating.

How about this past offseason? There’s 5 new players in the forward groups with a clear goal of getting the puck and keeping the possession with their speed. The subtractions since last year’s trade deadline were proof that the front office declared that last year’s step back wasn’t good enough. And more importantly debunks the sentiment that I’ve seen from some people that he’s content with doing nothing — it’s just not true. He wants to win as much as the coaches, players, and fans do.

And for a team that lets very little escape to the insiders, there was a fair share of rumors for looking for that one more piece, so I don’t think he isn’t trying from that perspective either.

Anyways, I don’t think I can talk more about this for now. I think I’ve reached my maximum threshold for talking about hypothetical additional moves because we just don’t know what was proposed, rejected, broke down, or whatever other factors got in the way, etc. Especially from the grass (again, didn’t forget about the metaphor), I feel like you have to have a cognitive ceiling of talking about the things that you as a fan can’t control about the state of things, or the limited capacities of the behind the scenes.

Okay moving on. I think the inherent constraints of that explanation are clear. The sky looks like cotton candy!

The State of the Roster

The final piece of the offseason review was that it helped solidify that the forward core is going to get a chance to prove that the steps back last season were the exception and not the rule. It’s a part of the risk you inherit from earlier long term extensions. but from the 100 foot view, comparing 22-23 and 23-24:

• There’s one hit wonder seasons, but you’re telling me in 22-23 that a 21 year old Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn both had career years that we aren’t supposed to have expected they could ever replicate again? Shooting regression this and that, 21 years old?! Especially with Cozens, I don’t see how someone could’ve seen last season and the start of this season being so snake bitten during the summer of 2023 (and not for nothing, the trajectory and age curve still put him at a better outlook in the next 5ish seasons than Casey Mittelstadt turning 26 in November).
• As frustrating as it is, Rasmus Dahlin is an elder statesman at 24 years old at a position that while has gotten younger across the league, still takes more reps in games to reach a peak.
  • The offensive games being where they are for a 22 year old Owen Power and 23 year old Bo Byram will have the defense catch up, albeit more likely for Power than Byram to reach the comfort level Dahlin has reached still at such a young age on both sides of the ice.
• Mittlestadt and Matthew Savoie aside, moving on from Jeff Skinner was the most likely contender (outside of Okposo obviously given his now retirement) for an age-related drop off now at 32. There was a lot of frustration specifically about needing to replace 30 goals, but he only got to 24 last year, so while yes he’s going to play with McDavid and Draisaitl and get his fair chances to put the puck in the net, it’s less guaranteed than it was given what his role was last season to “replace” those goals. Same can be said to a lesser extent for a 29 year old Victor Olofsson.

This feels like the largest piece of the drought fatigue. As much as we groan that they keep finding themselves as the youngest team in the league, that still implies the room to grow. And with almost everyone having a worse season in 23-24 than 22-23, that probably suggested a huge piece of the issue being coaching, which is also something they addressed.

If things didn’t turn around, there is depth even down on the farm of guys that could be ready down the road to take spots more quickly or make hockey trades to move on from guys if they truly never get back to that previous form, but I think most of the guys in this roster are going to earn the chance to prove one way or another and get back to at least the playoff conversation down the stretch, since, again, last year’s team was probably the second best of the last 13 years.

And maybe that answers the question. Maybe the players on the ice and the coaching staff and (most if not all of) the front office deserve to not have to answer to all 13 years while also the respect of raising the standard and the floor of the organization.

Oh look at that they beat Florida…

Is it a reverse jinx? Meh probably not. But now that there’s one in the win column, there’s plenty more room to play loose heading onto the road next week after handling a team they should have handled given the roster they faced.

I think once we get through the first month or so, one of the more underrated aspects of having Lindy Ruff behind the bench is going to be offering the ample experience working in the league to keep their confidence and composure steady through the ups and downs of an 82 game season, something that the losses appeared to be contributing to with tightly gripped sticks and things of that nature. His comments of there being a lot to have liked against the Kings despite the couple of bad things preventing them from getting at least a point show to that as well, at least from the dark soccer field. And I believe him when he says that the team is working hard to get to their ultimate goals, so we should give them that respect along the journey that they’re doing everything they can to relieve us as fans of that longing for a playoff appearance.

Updates…certainly…to…follow…

Go Sports. Remember to touch grass when you have the chance to because if the team shouldn’t carry the weight of the last 13 years, fans probably (?) shouldn’t either. Maybe we just need to chuckle through the frustration at how ridiculously comical some of the roadblocks in games have been.

And one more time, how cool are the Northern Lights?!