Welcome to the 2024 xB Buffalo Sabres Draft Guide! For the 2024 edition, I took feedback from last year, and have broken this up into multiple parts so that it 1.) Can load on your mobile device and 2.) It can be consumed in various readings and doesn’t take an hour to get through.

If this is the first time you’ve read my draft guide, let me break down how each section will go:

– Each draft pick the Sabres have will be given five players which I think are reasonable selections for the Sabres. They are broken down as Dream Scenarios (two given for each draft pick), Realistic Selections (two given for each draft pick), and a Wildcard Selection (one given for each draft pick)

– Dream Scenarios are based on my evaluation of the player, and where I believe they are most likely going to go in the draft. They are based on my draft philosophies and don’t take into account my studying of the Sabres past draft philosophies nor the current needs of the team.

– Realistic Scenarios are based on where I believe players may go in the draft, and are based on studying the Sabres’ previous draft philosophies, current prospect pool depth needs, and players, that if I were a part of the Sabres draft team, I would be okay signing off on the selection.

– The Wildcard Scenario is a draft pick that doesn’t fall directly into the two categories above and is a player that I think would go slightly later than the current selection (or undrafted in the later rounds), but I believe it would make an interesting selection for the Sabres.

– First-time draft-eligible players will just have their names displayed in bold. Every asterisk after the player’s name will denote if they are a D+1 or D+2 draft-eligible player. For instance, Tanner Adams was eligible for the draft last year but was not drafted. He will appear in the draft guide as ‘Tanner Adams*”.

Last year this draft guide included Zach Benson in a Dream Scenario, Anton Wahlberg/Maxim Strbak in the Realistic Scenarios, and Gavin McCarthy in a Wildcard Scenario. Hopefully, this guide will get lucky again and provide insight to some of the players in the Sabres draft as they draft them. If not, then I encourage you to go to my draft rankings article to see if I had any notes about the player in that article before the recap article I will write.

Pick 109

Dream Scenario #1: Luke Osburn, LHD, USHL

6’0, 172 lbs

60gp, 8g, 23pts

Luke Osburn is the one player I desperately want the Sabres to take a shot on in the mid-rounds. I love the player, and I think he will be overlooked due to his counting stats in the USHL. Qualitatively, he’s a dream player for me. Amazing four-way skating ability. He can dart quickly out of a stop to generate speed, uses both his edges to move around the ice with ease, and manipulates defenders offensively. Defensively he reads the play so well. He anticipates where the puck will be and battles when he defends the puck. He has the size to play against bigger opponents and the speed to contain the USHL’s top forwards on the rush. Add to that, he’s aggressive in his offensive approach to the game. He’s never shy to join a rush, to replace a forward on the cycle or activate into space in the offensive zone, and keeps his eyes up the entire time to survey the ice about where the puck should go. I truly see a diamond in the rough type of player with Osburn.

So why does he fall to the mid-rounds? I think it’s because he can make mistakes with his aggressiveness with the puck and that the details of his game are a bit raw still. For instance, there’s a play he made in a game in March where he breaks the oncoming defenders’ ankles at the blue line and then goes for the backdoor play through 2 defenders to a player for a potential tap-in goal (the puck gets knocked away) instead of going cross-ice to a high-slot one-timer. Sometimes he goes for the homerun instead of the double. His skating could use a step if I were to nitpick, but his agility and mobility make up for it in my mind.

I hope Osburn ends up a selection by the Sabres in the 2024 draft. His ability to carry the puck make plays and be available this late makes him too good to pass up.

Dream Scenario #2: Tarin Smith, LHD, WHL

6’1, 176 lbs

67gp, 8g, 44pts

Tarin Smith was a top 10 offensive defenseman in my dataset when it comes to generating dangerous passing attempts and passing completions. If we were building a draft ranking of defensemen based on how much fun it is to watch them play, he’s arguably in the top 6 in the entire draft. He tries and accomplishes some of the most jaw-dropping puck-handling plays by a defenseman in the entire draft. He has a massive arsenal of tricks up his sleeve. On three consecutive shifts, he first went inside-out on an oncoming forward applying pressure on the blue line and slipping by them to deliver a high-danger pass, then faked a shot on the next shift and slipped in the slot for a dangerous shot, and finally did a stop-and-start going down the wall that froze the defender and gave him easy access into the slot. The sequence alone almost drove him way up my rankings.

Where Smith needs to improve is with his pace of play and his pivots and stops/starts in his skating. A lot of what he is accomplishing with his puck skill is done so at a pace that isn’t going to translate to the NHL right now. His defensive work is good but not great. He battles hard and keeps a tight gap when defending the rush. He’s good with his stick if a player puts a puck within his reach, but he can be put off-balance by quicker forwards, and if he’s put in a position where a forward starts/stops or uses edgework fakes.

I love betting on fun. Tarin Smith is the ultimate bet on fun in the draft and one that I think warrants the risk that comes with his pace. Tarin Smith is a player who could use the full two years in the WHL before trying to transition over to the AHL/NHL.

Realistic Scenario #1: Elliott Groenewold, LHD, USHL

6’2, 201 lbs

57gp, 5g, 16pts

I’m not typically a big fan of drafting defensive defensemen in the NHL draft, mainly because they could be had in free agency for a marginal overpay compared to massively overpaying for a transitional, offensive defenseman who has a positive impact in his zone. Groenewold, though, might be the exception to the rule when it comes to my philosophy.

I was talking with a NCAA coach recently and we were talking about modern defensive strategy and where the game is going in terms of defensemen and what it means to stifle an opponent’s offensive chances. When the coach mentioned words/phrases like “suffocating”, “tenacity”, and “battles as hard off the puck as on the puck”, I kept thinking of Groenewold.

The Cedar Rapids defender defends players all over the ice as hard as he does as if they have the puck. You are not going to be able to do what you want with Groenewold as he will physically enforce every inch of the ice and battle opponents for every second of his shift. With impressive north/south footspeed and quick pivots to go from backwards-to-forwards skating to surf opponents on an entry and drive them into the boards: it’s rare to see Groenewold give up a chance with his skating ability, physicality, and active stick.

Offensively he doesn’t have the puck skill to convert on carry-out transitions and opts for the simple pass more often than not. He does activate a bit from the blue line but it was mostly to get a shot off. He did have a few dangerous pass attempts in the dataset, but they were often not completed. The thought process is there, but Groenewold didn’t execute plays at a level that would generate assists. He’s not a volume shooter either, so the point total being pretty low wasn’t a surprise after my viewings and data.

There is a lot to work with and develop with Groenewold in the offensive and transition game. Going to a recent powerhouse in division one hockey in Quinnipiac will give him ample time to develop and gain offensive confidence to see if he can be more than a bottom-four, penalty-killing defenseman.

Realistic Scenario #2: Sebastian Soini, RHD, Mestis

6’2, 187 lbs

32gp, 0g, 8pts

Sebastian Soini is the prototypical swing I’d like to make on a defenseman in the mid-rounds: has size, and skating ability, played in the men’s league overseas, and has a late birthday. The biggest assets Soini has are his size and skating ability. Being 6’2, he has the lateral agility of a player much smaller than him and can match opponents’ footspeed while skating backward defending the rush. He shows a little bit of offensive potential when he’s able to start with the puck on his stick in space as he’s able to find and read gaps to carry the puck through the defense to find an outlet or entry pass.

However, he is a mid-round pick due to the mental processing of the game. Pre-scanning of the ice and being able to play under pressure is paramount for a player to be selected high in the draft, and in this area of the game, Soini struggles. Offensively he can turn the puck over to not anticipating oncoming pressure, doesn’t pre-scan before his puck retrievals, or when receiving the puck at the blue line in the offensive zone. This slows down his mental processing of the game, and in the Mestis playing against men, this leads to turnovers and bad mistakes. Defensively, his off-puck positioning was hindered in my viewings by not being aware of the off-puck movement happening around him.

You bet on the skating, athleticism, and the fact he was very young playing in a men’s league. You hope the mental processing and skill development come in the next few years. Unfortunately, Soini wasn’t selected for the Hlinka nor the u18 team for Finland, so seeing him against his peers in a best-on-best scenario this year wasn’t available.

Wildcard Scenario: Timur Kol, LHD, VHL

6’3, 198 lbs

23gp, 5g, 8pts

I could see Timur Kol going in the late second or early third round of this year’s draft. I have him as a 5th round+ type of prospect, so I will put him in the Wildcard scenario for now. The reason he could go in the first three rounds? He’s a big, rangy defender who has mobility and played in a men’s league with a production profile that is somewhat impressive for a draft-eligible playing in the VHL.

The reason why I have him as a 5th round+ player? I think a lot of his points came from lucky bounces and that he’s still very raw with offensive and transition ability. In the MHL he looked a lot more confident offensively. He would hold on to the puck longer, and try to make plays with the puck. However, the MHL generally lacks defensive pressure and gives ample space. In the VHL, when time and space were condensed, it was a very simple two games I watched Kol play. He panicked under pressure more than I like to see and didn’t use his mobility to attempt to get himself out of jams either.

I think the fourth round is a perfect spot to pick up a player like Kol if my assessment of him is correct. He’s similar to Soini in that there’s mobility and range while holding his own against older players in a men’s league. However, with his production profile a bit better than Soini’s, I could see him rising to the third round for an NHL team’s evaluation of the risk/reward.