Welcome to the 2024 xB Buffalo Sabres Draft Guide! For the 2024 edition, I took feedback from last year, and have broken this up into multiple parts so that it 1.) Can load on your mobile device and 2.) It can be consumed in various readings and doesn’t take an hour to get through.

If this is the first time you’ve read my draft guide, let me break down how each section will go:

– Each draft pick the Sabres have will be given five players which I think are reasonable selections for the Sabres. They are broken down as Dream Scenarios (two given for each draft pick), Realistic Selections (two given for each draft pick), and a Wildcard Selection (one given for each draft pick)

– Dream Scenarios are based on my evaluation of the player, and where I believe they are most likely going to go in the draft. They are based on my draft philosophies and don’t take into account my studying of the Sabres past draft philosophies nor the current needs of the team.

– Realistic Scenarios are based on where I believe players may go in the draft, and are based on studying the Sabres’ previous draft philosophies, current prospect pool depth needs, and players, that if I were a part of the Sabres draft team, I would be okay signing off on the selection.

– The Wildcard Scenario is a draft pick that doesn’t fall directly into the two categories above and is a player that I think would go slightly later than the current selection (or undrafted in the later rounds), but I believe it would make an interesting selection for the Sabres.

– First-time draft-eligible players will just have their names displayed in bold. Every asterisk after the player’s name will denote if they are a D+1 or D+2 draft-eligible player. For instance, Tanner Adams was eligible for the draft last year but was not drafted. He will appear in the draft guide as ‘Tanner Adams*”.

Last year this draft guide included Zach Benson in a Dream Scenario, Anton Wahlberg/Maxim Strbak in the Realistic Scenarios, and Gavin McCarthy in a Wildcard Scenario. Hopefully, this guide will get lucky again and provide insight to some of the players in the Sabres draft as they draft them. If not, then I encourage you to go to my draft rankings article to see if I had any notes about the player in that article before the recap article I will write.

As we enter the first three rounds of the draft:

There’s a part of me that truly believes that if Adams keeps picks in the first three rounds, he and his staff are going to target players that diversify the prospect pool. I think we may see a shift from best player available to a more refined role for players to be selected, especially at the forward position. I try to include some of these players going forward even though I don’t have any insider information that this will be the case.

Pick 76

Dream Scenario #1: Luke Misa, C, OHL

5’10, 165 lbs

66gp, 26g, 81pts

Luke Misa is ranked just inside my first round and has been continuously mock-drafted outside the top 64. Misa’s game is defined by his speed and his transition ability. He’s able to gather the puck and in a few quick steps get up to full speed and carry the puck across both blue lines. His game isn’t defined by just being the rush and transition, as he’s able to get off the boards with his mobility and facilitate play in the offensive zone. He is a deft passer and works to get his shot off on the inside with 75% of his shots coming from dangerous areas of the ice and sports just under a 35% shot share.

As a defender, he suffocates space with his speed and is relentless in his backcheck to continue to work opponents the full 200 feet of the ice. While the physicality component is lagging with his lack of weight; he’s not afraid to go into the corners or play along the boards in either end of the ice.

If he has a weakness at this point of his career it’s that he’s a 2005-born forward who doesn’t create a lot of dangerous passes in the offensive zone. Only 15% of his passes went to the dangerous parts of the ice as he was more a facilitator than a player looking to get through the layers of the defense to then find the open player to score.

You draft Misa for his physical tools, speed, two-way ability, and fearlessness to play in crowded areas of the ice. He was among the top transition forwards in the entire dataset as he was involved in over 57% of his team’s offensive transitions. It was rare that an offensive possession didn’t flow through the stick of Misa. If he can dictate play more on the inside besides just to get his shot off then he could end up being a steal in the third round.

Dream Scenario #2: Tanner Howe, LW/C, WHL

5’11, 181 lbs

68gp, 28g, 77pts

Tanner Howe was blessed with being Connor Bedard’s running mate for the previous two seasons and cursed that the NHL scouting world has had a microscope on his game for three seasons. If you were to base your evaluation on Howe just on this year, I find it hard to believe you wouldn’t believe he’d be, at worst, a mid-second-round pick. However, having the production profile and the space to create in previous seasons with Bedard on his line, Howe has seen a souring of his scouting profile throughout the year.

Howe plays the game with a chip on his shoulder. Despite being 5’11, he plays the game as if he’s a 6’2 power forward. He craves physical contact and loves to be a pest to opposing players. Whether that’s taking a run at a player, a subtle cross-check in the corner, or a grab of a stick of pull of a jersey: Howe isn’t afraid to play gritty in either end of the ice. He has extreme confidence in his scoring ability and is oft looking to get to a scoring area to release his wrist shot. He has more skill than people give him credit for, but he has moments where he has a bad puck touch when puck handling or an errant puck reception off a pass that looks clumsy from time to time.

His motor is great and his speed can keep up in the professional leagues. Whether or not he has the size and build to play his reckless style is one that probably drives him down the draft board. His microstat profile was a rollercoaster ride all year. Good defensive metrics individually but a poor team Corsi when he was on the ice. Good shot metrics, but a poor passing completion percentage. Active in offensive transitions at 40% involvement in successful transitions, but a poor success rate of only 63%.

I think he’s a dream scenario for the Sabres in the third round, but more of a realistic trade-down option in the second round. If he were to fall this far, getting a potential middle-six winger in the third round would be something to praise Adams and company for.

Realistic Scenario #1: Ollie Josephson, C, WHL

6’0, 181 lbs

68gp, 12g, 47pts

The hole that remains at the 3C position after the trade of Mittelstadt is glaring to Sabres fans going into this offseason. While Josephson is most likely two or three years away from potentially sniffing that role; it’s hard not to listen to Adams talk of defensive responsibility in the bottom six center role and not immediately draw a line to Josephson as a potential candidate for the Sabres to take in day two of the draft.

Ollie Josephson was a shutdown center in the WHL this past year. While his offensive game is lagging; his defensive game saw him draw tough assignments consistently stifle opposing attacks and draw rave reviews as a defensive stalwart. His microstat profile offensively wasn’t anything to be impressed with. He had moments with his team shot share and in transition, but for the most part he was just a facilitator on his line.

He does flash offensive potential from time to time. He has range with his puck-handling ability and shows confidence to attempt some complex moves. The third round is probably the earliest you’ll see Josephson’s name called, and if so, you’re probably going to see a lot of comparisons to Anthony Cirelli’s draft profile when he came out in 2015.

This is an aggressive pick for me to put as a realistic option for the Sabres. Perhaps he belongs in the 4th round picks or even the newly acquired 5th-round pick. However, I can see the Sabres saying they don’t want to risk losing out on the potential shut-down center and taking him a round or two early to ensure he ends up on their roster. (#16 on Canada in this video).

Realistic Scenario #2: Lukas Fischer, LHD, OHL

6’3, 181 lbs

68gp, 6g, 34pts

If the Sabres don’t take the swing on Carter Yakemchuk in the first round of the draft; Fischer provides a tiered-down version of Yakemchuk’s archetype. Fischer is a big-bodied, mobile defenseman who flashes offensive skill and play creation from the backend, but is going to require a lot of development to become the type of defenseman he flashes he could be.

The archetype is that Fischer has some of the tools to be able to do what he’s trying to do but is often miscalculating when to use them or how to use them. Similar to Yakemchuk, Fischer was aggressive in his offensive zone activation and would be aggressive in the neutral zone trying to proactively take away options in the breakout. However, sometimes his activation was too much risk and not enough reward. He could join a rush or drop down into the offensive zone without a clear advantage to doing so and the subsequent turnover left his team with an odd-man advantage going the other way. Teams were also able to get behind Fischer when he pinched too far up or tried to get into a passing lane which led to Sarnia being left down a defenseman on the rush that occurred after the mistake.

You don’t get many chances to take a player of his size, mobility, and physical nature past the second round of the draft. If you do, you know you’re going to have major developmental hurdles to clear to get the player to where they need to be. Fischer has demonstrated enough, to me, that he could end up being worth the risk at the top of the third round, and if he’s available I think he’d be a front-runner for who I think the Sabres would pick. (#13 in the video)

Wildcard Scenario: Raoul Boilard, C, QMJHL

6’0, 190 lbs

68gp, 22g, 62pts

For most of this year, Raoul Boilard was going to be the player I planted my flag in as the player I fell in love with more than the consensus. His small-area skill is so good, and I love the way he sees and processes the game. With the puck on his stick, he’s always scanning and looking for the best option. He can make moves as a 6’0 forward that you usually see from the 5’9 forward that I normally fall in love with. He has a great shot, and he is defensively responsible and I think could stick down the middle.

His microstat profile screamed a player who was underperforming in the actual production stats, and the signs of a true steal in the draft. He was involved in over 40% of his team’s offensive transitions, completed a forward-best 77% of his passes with 25% going to dangerous areas of the ice, and had over a 30% dangerous shot share on one of the best teams in the QMJHL this past year.

However, he fell from my graces in the last month of the scouting year. He would go invisible for far too long in the last five games of the regular season, and then he had a disappearing act in the QMJHL playoffs. Given that the QMJHL has seen a dramatic downturn in talent in recent years; it’s hard to go to bat for a player that disappeared despite having a prominent role on his team. I was willing to overlook his average pace of play beforehand, but without being engaged consistently, it became the reason he dropped from the low 20s in my rankings to the low 40s.

He will most likely be going in the backend of the 3rd round/early 4th. However, he is an interesting player to reach for in the first half of the third. (#27 in white in the video).

Five quick options for the 5th-round pick from Florida

Dream Scenario #1: Kevin He, LW, OHL: I think this late in the draft he sort of runs in the archetype of Tanner Howe: an undersize forward (5’11) who builds his entire game on his motor and gets into the dirty areas to score goals. Playing on one of the worst OHL teams I’ve seen in recent memory in Niagara, it’s hard to evaluate him as his support systems were far below some of his peers, but also where he would slot on a better team remains a question mark as well. If the Sabres are looking to fill out the depth of the prospect pool with high-intensity, quick-paced players then He will fit right in.

Dream Scenario #2: Fyodor Avramov, LW, MHL: Similar to He, Avramov played on a bad team and outscored his nearest teammate by 15 points in the MHL. He has a large 6’3 frame and a very good wrist shot that beat goalies clean from distance. He needs to add another gear to his north/south skating to be effective in moving up the professional ranks, but the size, shooting ability, and play creation on a poor MHL team is an interesting swing to make in the late rounds, especially given that the Sabres would retain his rights indefinitely.

Realistic Scenario #1: Jamiro Reber, C, J20 Nationell: Similar to the profile of Ollie Josephson, Reber lacks the offensive skill set to see a top 6 potential in the player. However, Reber plays a 200-foot game and his motor and defensive responsibility do pop off the screen when you watch him play. If the Sabres were to miss on Josephson, I could see Reber being a late-round selection to fulfill a longshot of finding a 3C defensive stalwart in the draft.

Realistic Scenario #2: Evan Gardner, G, WHL: The Sabres, under Kevyn Adams, love drafting a goalie in every draft. This year, unfortunately, there isn’t much to choose from. Evan Gardner jumped to the WHL this year and had himself a statistically great season for a WHL goalie. Posting a save percentage of .927 and a .910 in the playoffs, Gardner and his 6’2 frame could end up falling in the draft. With the Sabres taking Scott Ratzlaff last year, they’ve shown they aren’t afraid to take CHL goalies in the late rounds.

Wildcard Scenario: Kieron Walton, LW/C, OHL: A 6’5 winger whose game is predicated on his silky passing? I think the Sabres have been chasing a big forward in the depths of the NHL draft the last few years (Nadeau and Miedema come to mind) and Walton might be my favorite of the three. He has a lot of the small-area tactics and skills that often evade bigger forwards, and he has proactive scanning and processing in the way he attacks defenses that there are aspects of his game to get excited about. He’s still a bit clunky with his skating mechanics, and his hands can be faster than his feet, but a couple of years of acclimating to his frame could see a big improvement for Walton.