Welcome to the 2024 xB Buffalo Sabres Draft Guide! For the 2024 edition, I took feedback from last year, and have broken this up into multiple parts so that it 1.) Can load on your mobile device and 2.) It can be consumed in various readings and doesn’t take an hour to get through.

If this is the first time you’ve read my draft guide, let me break down how each section will go:

– Each draft pick the Sabres have will be given six players which I think are reasonable selections for the Sabres. They are broken down as Dream Scenarios (two given for each draft pick), Realistic Selections (two given for each draft pick), and a Wildcard Selection (one given for each draft pick)

– Dream Scenarios are based on my evaluation of the player, and where I believe they are most likely going to go in the draft. They are based on my draft philosophies and don’t take into account my studying of the Sabres past draft philosophies nor the current needs of the team.

– Realistic Scenarios are based on where I believe players may go in the draft, and are based on studying the Sabres’ previous draft philosophies, current prospect pool depth needs, and players, that if I were a part of the Sabres draft team, I would be okay signing off on the selection.

– The Wildcard Scenarios are draft picks that don’t fall directly into the two categories above and is a player that I think would go slightly later than the current selection (or undrafted in the later rounds), but I believe it would make an interesting selection for the Sabres.

– First-time draft-eligible players will just have their names displayed in bold. Every asterisk after the player’s name will denote if they are a D+1 or D+2 draft-eligible player. For instance, Tanner Adams was eligible for the draft last year but was not drafted. He will appear in the draft guide as ‘Tanner Adams*”.

Last year this draft guide included Zach Benson in a Dream Scenario, Anton Wahlberg/Maxim Strbak in the Realistic Scenarios, and Gavin McCarthy in a Wildcard Scenario. Hopefully, this guide will get lucky again and provide insight to some of the players in the Sabres draft as they draft them. If not, then I encourage you to go to my draft rankings article to see if I had any notes about the player in that article before the recap article I will write.

After the mid-first round, the draft opens up considerably. What does this mean? There’s a group of players I think will go in the first 20 picks (this accounts for a few off-the-board picks that happen every year), and after that there is a wide range of players that could be picked. In most years, I have a pretty defined tier of players for the early second round that get picked in that range, followed by a tier that goes into the mid-second to the early-third round. This year that group is almost blended together. I could see players like Matvei Gridin or Cole Hutson going at the start of day two or not being picked until the mid-third round. That being so, I’ve decided to add an extra player in the draft guide for the first two rounds.

Pick 14

Dream Scenario #1: Michael Hage, C, USHL

6’1, 190 lbs

54gp, 33g, 75pts

Sometimes it’s important to provide context to a player’s prospect profile that goes outside of hockey. For some players, it will drive them down the draft board (see: Trevor Connelly), and for others, it puts into perspective just how special their most recent season was. Michael Hage had a devastating shoulder injury that cost him all but 13 games in his first USHL season. This last summer, he lost his father to a swimming pool accident. Coming off of a serious injury and a traumatic tragedy, Hage started the year off rather slow. Going into March, Hage accumulated 44 points in 38 games including just 10 points in his first 11 games in which the Chicago Steel went 1-10 to start the year. Not pedestrian numbers by any means, but far off from being a lottery selection. From March 1st onwards, Hage went on a tear to the tune of 31 points in his last 16 games, and his offensive work rate single-handedly pushed the Steel to a miraculous playoff birth.

Splicing the data set to the three games tracked for forwards in March and April, Hage ranked:

• Tied for 4th in total shots per game
• 5th in team shot share (Hage’s shots/Team Shots when he’s on the ice)
• 7th in dangerous shot attempts
• 8th in passing attempts per game
• 12th in completed passing percentage
• 7th in high/medium danger passing attempts per game
• 6th in percentage of passes that were high/medium passes completed
• 10th in offensive transition involvement

In short: Hage was doing everything from generating shots off his stick to creating shots for his teammates. His skill and skating ability have never been in question. His lateral agility, the way he darts through defenders at the blue line and opens up passing lanes, has always been a strong point from his scouting profile throughout the season. However, it was the precision of how he timed his playmaking and when to get to shooting areas that opened up as the year went on. He became much more puck-dominant in his offensive game and would use his skill to break down defenses so that his teammates could benefit from the extra space as he was able to draw defenders to him and still create offense.

As the year wore on he became more physical in all areas of the ice. Perhaps it was feeling confident with his shoulder finally, or a change in his approach in his game that happened naturally, but the increase in his physicality allowed him to play more on the edge defensively and to power through contact with the puck on his stick instead of looking to spin off of it.

By the end of the year, I didn’t have anything to nitpick with his game. I know I have him ranked highest compared to most public scouting sites as he’s my 8th-ranked prospect. The University of Michigan commit is going to have plenty of opportunities to play high in the lineup with the graduation of many of their top prospects to the professional ranks. I expect Hage to continue to develop his game, and many could look back at his mid-20s consensus ranking and wonder what they missed.

Dream Scenario #2: Cole Eiserman, LW, USNTDP

6’0, 196 lbs

57gp, 58g, 89pts

The all-time leading goal scorer in USNTDP history, Eiserman saw his draft stock fall from a consensus top 5 pick to now projected to be a fringe lottery pick. Why? When you watch Eiserman play it becomes apparent that he cares about one thing: scoring goals. Everything Eiserman does on the ice seems to be predicated on the simple idea that if he can get just a little space he can rip it by the goalie. This has led to a lack of depth in Eiserman’s offensive profile. In transition, he can have a very narrow vision as he’s thinking of how he can take the puck himself to a scoring area. He doesn’t pre-scan before receiving the puck for passing options, especially in the offensive zone, oftentimes turning the puck over before being able to get to a secondary option. I detailed some of that here:

This is a really well done article on Eiserman. I've been thinking a lot about his game recently and will just add in my own two cents.

I find that if a player enters Eiserman's vision he has the playmaking skills you'd expect from a top rated forward https://t.co/J8VnVdFyQT pic.twitter.com/pHpprGKykI

— Austin (@BMaster716) June 12, 2024

Defensively, I kind of like him as a winger. He’s above-average in pace and he can get on a defender in the forecheck in a hurry and he doesn’t fly the zone like so many other scoring wingers do in the junior ranks. He’s physical, almost reckless, and sometimes dirty when he’s looking to hit an opposing player. He’s not very active in the neutral zone at generating turnovers, but his effort level and off-puck awareness do not concern me.

Eiserman makes his bread-and-butter on the right circle on the powerplay; the left-handed Ovechkin spot. While is vision can be narrowed when he has the puck, he’s a fantastic off-puck reader of the game and is able to get to spots where teammates can find him to get his shot off.

I do see some redundancy with Jiri Kulich when it comes to the powerplay as both Kulich and Eiserman have made their living at the same spot with their shots. Add in the fact that Tage occupies the other circle on a powerplay already, and perhaps he’s not best utilized in the future on the Sabres roster.

If, and it’s a major if as I’ve watched him for 4 years and he hasn’t changed his game yet, he is able to pre-scan and think about being a playmaker more often and balance his scoring prowess with creating goals for others, he could reach the lofty expectations of being a top 5 player in a re-draft.

Realistic Scenario #1: Adam Jiricek, RHD, Czechia

6’2, 167 lbs

19gp, 0g, 1pt

When you watch Adam Jiricek play it comes to no one’s surprise that he’s the brother of David Jiricek. There are a lot of similarities to their game; from the awkward skating stride to the aggressive pinching and activating in the offensive zone, to the punishing nature of their defensive game: the two Jiricek boys look eerily similar. However, after the Hlinka this past year, I had Jiricek ranked high on my board. He looked utterly dominant in that tournament. He moved the puck with ease, stifled any transition opportunities, and showed offensive promise to go along with the snarly demeanor in the defensive zone.

Watching Jiricek play in the Czech pro league for the preliminary rankings for Smaht, I didn’t think his feet could keep up with the pace of a men’s league at that time. Then came the knee injury that sidelined him for most of the rest of the year. The footspeed is a concern if we were drafting him at 11, but given the fact that all of Buium/Dickinson/Parekh/Yakemchuk should be gone by 14, he does make the most sense as the only defender I would take at this range.

Assuming you can get him some skating development, his knee is healing properly, and he continues his upward trajectory with his passing and transition game; he could be cemented in the top 4 going forward for the Sabres without the need to play him on the powerplay for him to have value.

Realistic Scenario #2: Michael Bransegg-Nygard, RW, Allsvenskan

6’0, 207 lbs

41gp, 8g 18pts

I was at the Hlinka camp this past week and a scout, referencing a player on the ice, looked and me and said “Now there’s a kid who’s playing like someone’s holding a family member hostage.” I laugh because the player was out there playing like it was game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals every shift. When you watch Michael Bransegg-Nygard you’re guaranteed to leave the game/viewing with the thought of “my goodness does this kid have a motor.”

Brandsegg-Nygard would be an instant fan favorite in Buffalo. There isn’t a shift he takes off, nor an opponent he’s not trying to drive through the glass to the front row seats. He’s a fantastic skater, who uses his great north/south speed to barrel down the defense and force them to keep up. He isn’t flashy with his puck handling. Often it’s a simple in-and-out deke or a stop-and-start that gets him where he needs to go. To be honest, he doesn’t need to be that flashy as he isn’t afraid to take on contact to get where he needs to go. He has a powerful wrist/snap shot that was impressive even comparing it against the men he played against in the Allsvenskan.

Bransegg-Nygard is a player the Sabres currently do not have in the prospect pool and honestly would be my pick for the “Who would Sabres fans love the most?” draft prospect in this range. He’s not a line driver like Hage could be, but he is a utility knife who has no problem being in transition or playing as a second-fiddle up and down the lineup. The hope is that there’s a bit more refinement in his puck skill, and if that happens think of JJ Peterka with a mean streak.

Wildcard Scenario #1: Konsta Helenius, C, Liiga

5’11, 189 lbs

51gp, 14g, 36pts

Having put up the fifth most points by a draft-eligible player in the Liiga’s history, Helenius builds his game from being one of the smartest players in the NHL draft in terms of off-puck movement and proactive planning on what to do with the puck once it’s on his stick. He’s a wildcard because I can see him going higher in the draft given his profile, but there is a possibility that he slips to us at 14.

I like the idea of Helenius being a third-line center in Buffalo. I have always been fond of his defensive game. He’s not physical in his approach, but he takes away so much of what the opposition wants to do with his body positioning and with an active stick in passing lanes. He’s quick to realize when the puck could be turned over and is in great support of his teammates to give them outlets and jump into a board battle to retrieve the puck and get it to a teammate to start the rush with possession. This aspect of his game, and sitting here now at pick 14 where a lot of the high-upside players won’t slide to, has had me warm up to the idea of Helenius for the Sabres.

I’m reminded of watching Anton Lundell during his draft year when watching Helenius. There isn’t a skill that he has that I would say I’m impressed with. His puck handling is simple but effective, he doesn’t make plays that make you audibly gasp, nor does he have a shot that makes him dangerous if you give him time and space to get it off. He’s a chess master on the ice; moving defenders where he wants them to get the puck where it needs to be.

It’s not a sexy pick, and I don’t project he’s going to be a big point producer in the NHL unless he’s able to get another step in his speed or more creative in his playmaking. However, I do think he could drive positive results down the middle for an NHL team. As the Sabres progress to trying to make the playoffs, he could be a valuable 3rd line center for them during those playoff games where the game becomes less about skill and more about finding the advantage to make the optimal play. (#19 in white making the pass in the video).

Wildcard Scenario #2: Igor Chernyshov, LW, KHL

6’2, 196 lbs

32gp, 3g, 4pts

The last player I’ve added to the profile would come a bit out of left field, but is a player who with his size and skill would make for an interesting homerun swing for the Sabres. Chernyshov is a 6’2 winger who blends a unique high-end puck-handling ability with an interest in mucking it up in the corners and playing physically. He’s not a true power forward as his offensive game is more flashy than straight-line bull rushes, and while he’s not afraid of contact, it isn’t a strength to his offensive game to play through or initiate contact.

In the MHL, Chernyshov looked dominant in my two viewings. He was puck-dominant and able to do what he wanted at ease. His size and skill overmatched his opponents and he displayed excellent vision getting teammates the puck in dangerous areas. In the KHL, he played minimal minutes on a non-offensive scoring line. He adapted his game to play a hit more simply and to use his size more, and there were still flashes of the skill he showed in the MHL.

Defensively he is a 200-foot player. He works hard and uses his size and physicality to put pressure on opponents and was very good along the boards in the KHL which will translate well to the NHL.

He runs in a similar archetype as Micahel Bransegg-Nygard, but MBN is faster and more apt to use his physical nature to generate offense. I think Chernyshov might have the higher upside given his puck-handling ability and vision, but MBN would be my preference given how much I love watching him play every shift.

Five more 2nd round options with San Jose’s pick:

I’m going to keep this brief as Kevyn Adams stated the added picks give him more ammunition for a potential trade, so I doubt we keep two second-round picks. Alas, just in case, here are five more players:

Dream #1: Matvei Gridin, LW, USHL: So, I think it was Scott Wheeler’s player prospect poll, where Gridin rated himself as the most underrated prospect in the NHL draft. That made me laugh. Gridin the player has immense skill and a great shot. He has some of my favorite ankle-breaking clips from the entire scouting season. He has terrible on-ice body language though, often looking disengaged and disinterested if the puck isn’t near him. I love the skill, the vision, and the offensive game he brings. I’m hoping he sticks going to the University of Michigan and the NCAA route where he’ll be forced to work on his defensive game. If he jumps to the OHL (which there is a rumor he is thinking about it), then I’ll be less apt to bet on him improving his 200-foot game.

Dream #2: John Mustard, W, USHL: The Colonel makes his appearance! John Mustard was one of the few players I’ve ever seen to make the jump from 16u AAA hockey to the USHL and have the impact he had. He was still very, very raw. His game is predicated on his speed and motor while using his above-average puck-handling ability for his size to figure out problems. He has a lot of details to learn in the game, especially when the puck isn’t on his stick entering the offensive zone. However, there is a lot to work with here. Going to Providence in two years, I expect a more dominant USHL season next year followed by a smooth transition to the NCAA. If he can get near a point per game in his freshman year he’ll be set up to make big leaps.

Realistic #1: Linus Eriksson, C, J20 Nationell: Similar to Helenius, Eriksson plays a very smart, two-way game down the middle. He’s great at finding little seams to thread passes to and space to set up his shot. His transition to the Allsvenskan went pretty smoothly and he was effective on both ends of the ice in the men’s league. He lacks a truly dynamic offensive toolkit, but in the second round, I don’t mind taking a player who could develop in the SHL to be a two-way center who can transition the puck and drive positive results analytically.

Realistic #2: Henry Mews, RHD, OHL: Henry Mews has great vision, and activation strategy, and can puck handle well to walk the blue line. He just does all of these things at a very low pace. Whether what Mews has gotten away with in the OHL can translate to the NHL will be the biggest question for any NHL team that takes him. I think there’s a chance, but I’m on the side that wouldn’t bet that the cup is half full. He’s an interesting swing to make in the second round because if his pace of play improves and his decision-making speeds up, then he becomes a dynamic two-way defender.

Wildcard: Yegor Surin, C/RW, MHL: I’ll be honest and say that I just never saw it with Surin, but a lot of people I trust have raved about Surin’s game in the MHL playoffs. I saw a player who had tools but no direction. In the MHL I found his game to not translate to the NHL. However, talking with a few colleagues, they see a player who is relentless and high motor as well as having above-average playmaking and scoring ability. The consensus rankings agree with their assessment and not mine. Perhaps I watched the wrong games, but enough people have told me how wrong I am in my analysis of Surin and that he could be a homerun-type swing given his pace and skill that I could see him being an early-second-round pick.