The main storyline of the Buffalo Sabres’ offseason has been the overhaul of the bottom-six forward group. After dealing Kyle Okposo at the trade deadline, and subsequently letting Zemgus Girgensons, Tyson Jost, Victor Olofsson, and Eric Robinson hit the UFA market, Kevyn Adams made it a priority to completely change the complexion of that group.

While the Sabres’ bottom six certainly wasn’t high on the list of problems that plagued the team in 2023-24, the Buffalo brass prioritized its revitalization. Based on the new acquisitions, this doesn’t seem to be a mere shakeup for the sake of new blood.

It appears that Adams has equipped Lindy Ruff with assets better suited to help him completely reformat what will be expected of the bottom six (in contrast to how they’ve been utilized in years past). Let’s dive into what the new acquisitions bring to the table, and how their collective skillsets could be leveraged and deployed in 2024-25.

He’s Going the Distance, He’s Going for Speed

A lot has been made of the fact that the Sabres added some outstanding skaters to their group this summer. Despite how frequently that point is discussed, looking at the assets they lost versus who was brought in, the speed delta is probably being undersold.

Beck Malenstyn, Sam Lafferty, Ryan McLeod, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel aren’t just fast. They’re some of the league’s top speedsters. Given their overall size as a group (Aube-Kubel being the only one under 6-foot-2), it’s even more impressive.

Skating speed percentile for the Sabres' bottom six acquisitions (mix of top speed and 20+ MPH bursts from NHL Edge):

McLeod: 100th
Aube-Kubel: 98th
Lafferty: 97th
Malenstyn: 96th

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) July 5, 2024

Last season, Okposo, Jost, and Robinson all ranked below the 50^th percentile leaguewide in 20+ MPH bursts, according to NHL Edge. To his credit, Girgensons fared better than his bottom-six contemporaries, but overall, the speed delta I referenced above is significant.

Now the question becomes – how will this new area of strength be leveraged? Speed is great, but the system needs to adjust for maximization. The answer might lie in the individual tracking data.

Recover, Flip, Forecheck

For the sake of argument, let’s assume that the third and fourth lines look something like this:

Benson – McLeod – Greenway
Malenstyn – Lafferty – Aube-Kubel

If this configuration (or something similar) ends up resembling reality, it’s relatively easy to see how the coaching staff and front office have conceptualized skillset combinations in the bottom six.

For starters, each line has at least one zone-exit/defensive puck retrieval specialist as well as an adept forechecker. At face value, it would seem like the plan for these lines would be to handle the lion’s share of the defensive zone starts (the fourth line in particular), and then leverage their d-zone puck retrieval ability, speed, and forechecking prowess to flip the ice.

Starting with the prospective third line, it’s easy to see how these players could mesh. All three are great puck retrievers and zone-exit entities. Greenway and Benson are skilled at applying subsequent puck pressures but are rather poor at offensive zone recoveries. This likely has to do, in part, with the fact that neither is particularly speedy.

That’s where McLeod comes in. He too is great in all the areas where Greenway and Benson excel, with the bonus of speed and puck recovery ability. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Ruff expects Greenway to serve as a more physical presence.

Given the size and physicality they’ve added in the bottom six, it would seem that Ruff wants to physically wear down the Sabres’ opponents while overwhelming them with speed and tenacity on the counter-rush.

The Wizards of OZS

The speculated fourth line is a little different. While they share the same penchant for successful D-zone retrievals and zone exits (save for Malenstyn who seems to just throw a lot of hits), their usage will likely be a bit different.

A lot of folks have speculated that this group will be similar to the famed “LOG Line” of Girgensons, Johan Larsson, and Kyle Okposo circa 2018-2020. In terms of zone-start rate, yes, they will likely be very comparable. They’ll also probably face off against opposing scoring lines regularly. That’s about where the similarities end for me.

The LOG Line were possession merchants. Once they got the puck, they did an excellent job of protecting it. While nothing would come of their efforts in the form of scoring chances, they were low-event minute-eaters used to suppress opposing scoring lines.

They achieved their success in this area without being a particularly physical trio. None of them were especially fast either, aside from Girgensons who, as previously mentioned, is an above-average skater.

Aube-Kubel is also the only member of the prospective fourth line who has a history of strong defensive metrics. Malenstyn’s rookie numbers last season were less than inspiring, and Lafferty has been inconsistent (though largely average or slightly above) year-over-year.

So, it lends to reason that this triad won’t be as proficient at suppressing chances-against. That being said, the hope is likely that they’ll leverage their collective puck-retrieval ability, speed, and physicality to flip the ice and maintain possession (while also physically wearing down opposing skill players).

In terms of experience, heavy defensive usage won’t be anything of a culture shock for the new acquisitions. Last year, as members of the Washington Capitals, Malenstyn and Aube-Kubel skated together on the de facto fourth line (546-minute sample). In that time, they held an offensive zone-start rate of 8.59%, the lowest such mark in the NHL. Not nearly as dramatic, but Lafferty and McLeod also experienced a defensive zone-heavy deployment rate in 2023-24 at 45.71% and 44.9%, respectively.  

The Duck Goes QoC

In addition to difficult zone-deployment rates, the new forward acquisitions have something else in common. All of them are accustomed to significant gaps between their quality of teammates versus the quality of competition. This is a good thing, especially if our prognostication of their usage ends up being accurate.

In case the charts above aren’t clear, they outline that all four of Lafferty, Aube-Kubel, Malenstyn, and McLeod spent the 2023-24 season with lower-end teammate quality while facing off against higher-end competition on average. In McLeod and Aube-Kubel’s cases in particular, it makes their already sterling defensive metrics all the more impressive.

This type of distribution isn’t necessarily uncommon when examining third and fourth-line deployments, but it is nice to have confirmation that their presumably difficult QoC versus QoT environments under Ruff won’t be foreign territory for any of them.

Facilitating The Top-Six

Here’s where the whole revised bottom-six plan comes full circle. With the bottom six handling the lion’s share of the Sabres’ defensive deployment situations, it opens up Ruff’s ability to put his scoring lines in more favorable situations (ideally).

Suppose the newly acquired defensive forward assets can have the impact we examined earlier. In that case, it allows the top-six forward group (which lacks a certain two-way proficiency) to worry less about flipping the ice and more about creating offensive opportunities.

Adams should still be looking to make another skill-forward acquisition, but as it stands, I can see the logic of what he and Ruff are trying to build here. From a physical standpoint, the Sabres should be “harder to play against”. They’re bigger, more aggressive, and they’re faster. All positive things, in theory.

Still, a lot needs to go right for this roster to be a legitimate playoff contender. But hey, it’s hockey. Shooting benders, hot goaltending, and even special teams prowess can propel otherwise underwhelming talent into the postseason.

Charts Courtesy of Hockeyviz and All Three Zones

TOI and OZS Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Photo Credit: Bob Frid/USA TODAY Sports