Can you feel it? The morning air is crisp, the daylight is waning, and everything has been pumpkin spiced to oblivion. That’s right, sickos it’s hockey season.

This time of year, is an awkward one for the analytics scribe community. All the projection-worthy talking points were already hyper-analyzed during the summer, and it will be weeks until any new metrics are worth dissecting.

The mere thought of a cringey “bold prediction” article makes my skin crawl. That being said, I’m an attention-hungry hypocrite who wants to self-indulge in some whimsical (and arbitrary) anticipatory musings.

As a disclaimer, all organic forms of hopium left my bloodstream during the Ralph Krueger era of Buffalo Sabres hockey. All excitement is purely manufactured enthusiasm from concentrate. The last time this team was in the playoffs, my prefrontal cortex was still largely under construction. My previous affinities for “The Hours”, Fireball shots, and Camel Blues have been replaced with somehow less endearing interests.

Like most others in my age bracket, a playoff berth is the only path toward genuine enthusiasm. Watching a “fun” team of losers lost its appeal mid-pandemic. Win or piss off. Hopefully the following exercise in conjecture helps manifest a new reality where the Buffalo Sabres don’t need a miracle run over the last 20 games to stay in the playoff race.

Anyway, let’s predict some stuff, yeah?

Prediction 1: Tage Thompson will reclaim his 40-Goal Status

We’ll kick things off with the big guy. Following a 2022-23 campaign where Thompson scored 47 goals and amassed 94 points overall, the 2023-24 season was not nearly as inspiring. His 56-point output last season was perhaps the most significant disappointment on a long list of Sabres misgivings.

Fortunately, that performance hasn’t shaken the organization’s confidence in the soon-to-be 27-year-old. He remains firmly entrenched as the Sabres’ top center, and power-play weapon. That all tracks with logic because, despite the aforementioned scoring reduction, Thompson still created positive on-ice impacts.

We’ll see if his box score appearances remanifest under Lindy Ruff. Due to the coach’s historical proclivity for offensive revitalizations in year-one with a new team, I like the odds.

Prediction 2: Rasmus Dahlin will receive a Norris Trophy Nomination

As explained in my most recent article, offensively gifted, puck-moving defensemen tend to experience the greatest overall performance upticks under a newly introduced Lindy Ruff system. Dahlin fits the prototype perfectly.

Further, Seth Appert’s presence handling the man-advantage should result in increased scoring production for the top PP quarterback in Buffalo. The underlyings haven’t been an issue as far as national recognition goes for Dahlin. That said, his base-scoring numbers have yet to reach elite levels on par with other young superstar blueliners like Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar.

I don’t mean to discount the 59-points he produced on the back-end last season, but there’s another tier above him before he reaches elite outputs. I think he reaches that point this season.

Prediction 3: The New-Look 4^th Line Will Approach LOG Line Levels of Lore

To be honest, I don’t have any statistical evidence to back this up. Just seeing the speed and tenacity that this group displayed in the preseason gave me some hope that they won’t, as our friend Ntrider825 on Twitter put it “look like a bunch of plumbers”.

As I explained in my bottom-six prognostication exercise from earlier this offseason, the historical themes of speed and tenacity are a constant for all three of Sam Lafferty, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, and Beck Malenstyn.

Skating speed percentile for the Sabres' bottom six acquisitions (mix of top speed and 20+ MPH bursts from NHL Edge):

McLeod: 100th
Aube-Kubel: 98th
Lafferty: 97th
Malenstyn: 96th

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) July 5, 2024

Despite a lack of historical xG proficiency for the group at large, I think a concrete deployment approach, as well as a situational identity will mesh nicely under Ruff’s guidance.

Prediction 4: At Some Point this Season, There Will Be a Goalie Controversy

This can be read one of two ways. On one hand I could be insinuating that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will experience a noticeable regression from his Vezina-adjacent performance from 2023-24. Alternatively, you could take this as a vote of confidence in young Devon Levi, who played well in the NHL, and spectacularly with the Rochester Amerks.

The truth of my thought process is somewhere in-between. As I’ve stated ad nauseam, it is extremely difficult for me to trust a goalie to replicate past results. Age and development curve aside, this is especially the case for goalies who randomly play lights-out despite prior annual samples of lackluster play.

In Luukkonen’s case, it would be monumentally difficult for even an established high-end goalie to replicate his results from last year. Additionally, I think Levi has inspired me enough to believe that he will reach incredible heights in the years to come.

Perhaps I’m a year or two early in expecting those things to intersect. We’ll see.

Prediction 5: JJ Peterka will lead the team in xGF rate, and overall scoring clip.

At my age, I don’t have a “favorite player” anymore, but if I had to chose which one I enjoyed watching the most over the last two seasons, Peterka would be my choice. In Don Granato’s final season at the helm, Peterka was the only Sabres forward (aside from rookie Zach Benson) who exceeded developmental expectations.

On top of his consistent developmental progress to date, he has now been promoted to the top forward line (at least to start) in 2023-24. If preseason lineups are to be believed, he’s also expected to spend time on the top man-advantage unit.

Should those environmental/deployment factors remain consistent, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Peterka’s scoring metrics explode in a system that has historically optimized darn near everything he brings to the table (offensively speaking).

Prediction 6: The Sabres Make the Playoffs

Yeah, I’m a sucker. Every year I skeptically audit the lineup and correctly label the Sabres as below playoff-caliber. As early standing point models trickle in, most if not all of them still have Buffalo on the outside looking in.

For the first year, maybe ever, I’m not buying it. The goaltender depth isn’t a problem for the first time since Obama’s first term, and Lindy Ruff has brought the vibe train back to Western New York. With that comes a historically reliable performance uptick that his teams tend to experience in his first year at the helm.

Sure, the message has a tendency to sour in subsequent seasons, but who cares? Break the drought and worry about the rest later. See y’all at the plaza.

Charts and Underlying Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Hockeyviz