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A Common Theme is Appearing in Adams’ Draft Picks

When analyzing the past Adams drafts when making the draft guide I tried to find a common thread that connects the type of player the Sabres target with their draft picks. In the draft guide I labeled Helenius and Kleber both as “non-sexy” picks. The reason because they’re very good, but their games don’t have immense development runways to them that could see a high ceiling, but both are smart and competitive hockey players who make the right plays.

What I’ve found is that, for the vast majority of players selected under Adams, they all can be categorized as having a high-compete level. Compete is hockey jargon, and often it can have different connotations to what falls under a player that has a high-compete level. So how would I define compete in a hockey sense? To me, the common thread is that players the Sabres select must engage every shift, and every part of the ice, at their highest intensity level to take away time and space defensively and to give support to their teammates to give outlets and mitigate mistakes or turnovers by staying within the structure offensively.

Defensively, compete level is pretty easy to gauge even if you’re not a scout and just a casual fan of hockey. Players that are quick to get to where the puck is and engage the player with the puck, and not afraid to use their body to try to separate the player from the puck along the boards. They are sprinting hard in the backcheck. They are battling in front of the net and trying to tie up sticks or move players off their spot physically.

Offensively, compete level is about staying in support and not chasing a play when the puck isn’t secured. You’ll hear the term “flying the zone” when wingers will see an opportunity that a player on their team could get the puck so they get behind the defense, but by doing so before the puck is secured they abandon defensive responsibility. For centers, an example is to play below the puck in support instead of looking to get above the puck and abandon defensive responsibility if the puck is turned over.

Players with a high-compete level endear themselves to me as well. It’s why I really like players like Gavin Brindley, Teddy Stiga, and Matty Beniers. They were never going to make it easy on you defensively, and despite having great offensive skills and production, they sacrifice offensive production to make sure their line is dominant and not just themselves.

Konsta Helenius, Adam Kleber, Brodie Ziemer, Luke Osburn, and Simon-Pier Brunet all put forth extreme effort in all three zones. When writing the draft guide it was one of the things I put into the equation for picks, but admittedly also put some of my own bias of trying to find players in the mid-late rounds who had a long runway to develop into something more. In general, this draft for the Sabres was about drafting players with a high compete level that gives them a high-floor, not as high of a ceiling, and who will contribute positively in the outcome of a game when they’re on the ice.

Round 1, Pick 14

Sabres Pick: Konsta Helenius, C, Liiga

5’11, 189 lbs

51gp, 14g, 36pts

Having put up the fifth most points by a draft-eligible player in the Liiga’s history, Helenius builds his game from being one of the smartest players in the NHL draft in terms of off-puck movement and proactive planning on what to do with the puck once it’s on his stick. I didn’t put him as a Realistic option for the Sabres because his draft stock had him projected to go before the Sabres, however given the run at forwards leading up the Devils pick, it became inevitable that if the Flyers passed on him then he would be available for Buffalo.

I like the idea of Helenius being a third-line center in Buffalo. I have always been fond of his defensive game. He’s not physical in his approach, but he takes away so much of what the opposition wants to do with his body positioning and with an active stick in passing lanes. He’s quick to realize when the puck could be turned over and is in great support of his teammates to give them outlets and jump into a board battle to retrieve the puck and get it to a teammate to start the rush with possession. This aspect of his game, and at a point in the draft where all of the high-upside/high-floor players didn’t slide to, has had me warm up to the idea of Helenius for the Sabres.

I’m reminded of watching Anton Lundell during his draft year when watching Helenius. There isn’t a skill that he has that I would say I’m impressed with. His puck handling is simple but effective, he doesn’t make plays that make you audibly gasp, nor does he have a shot that makes him dangerous if you give him time and space to get it off. He’s a chess master on the ice; moving defenders where he wants them to get the puck where it needs to be. While he won’t deke a guy out of his shoes; he will move his eyes and shift his weight to put defenders off balanced or to move their stick to get the puck where he wants it to go.

It’s not a sexy pick, and I don’t project he’s going to be a big point producer in the NHL unless he’s able to get another step in his speed or more creative in his playmaking. However, I do think he could drive positive results down the middle for the Sabres. As the Sabres progress to trying to make the playoffs, he could be a valuable 3rd line center for them during those playoff games where the game becomes less about skill and more about finding the advantage to make the optimal play.

Round 2, Pick 42

Sabres Pick: Adam Kleber, RHD, USHL

6’5, 215 lbs

56gp, 5g, 26pts

Adam Kleber looks to be what the modern shutdown defender should be. Lengthy with very good mobility and a bit of a mean streak, it was rare to see Kleber not dictate play in the defensive zone this year in the USHL. When he kept a tight gap on defensive zone entries it was impossible to get by him. The only time I saw players get by him on a zone entry was when he gave them too much space to work with. He plays physically, but honestly, at his size, I thought he could play even more physically. Using his big frame to smash opponents coming along the wall or in the corners more often would bring an even greater depth to his defensive game.

Offensively there are some tools to work with, but the dataset didn’t scream a player who is poised for an offensive breakout. He didn’t send many passes to the dangerous areas of the ice in the offensive zone, nor did he find space to get off shots to ramp up his goal total. He does activate off the blue line and when he does, his mobility allows him to gain a step on defenders for him to have space to facilitate play. His hands don’t allow him much manipulation at the blue line, so he’s mostly looking to feed pucks down low or use his wrist shot to get pucks through as his offensive game.

Kleber isn’t a sexy pick. My thoughts are that if we take Kleber we’re drafting for needs and holes in the prospect pool over going best player available. However, given the state of the defensive core with Dahlin/Power/Byram, it’s hard to justify chasing other defenders in that archetype. Kleber will head to the University of Minnesota-Duluth next year as a part of an impressive freshmen class for the Bulldogs that include NHL draft picks Zam Plante, Adam Gajan, Jayson Shaugabay, and one of my favorite undrafted defenders in the USHL Ty Hanson.

Round 3, Pick 71

Sabres Pick: Brodie Ziemer, RW, USNTDP

5’11, 196 lbs

61gp, 27g, 70pts

The Sabres traded up to acquire the captain of the USNTDP team, Brodie Ziemer. Ziemer is a high-intensity right wing who specialized on the NTDP as the F1 forechecker and one-touch transition passenger on the top line with Stiga and Hagens for the majority of the second half of the year. He’s a good north/south skater and is able to suppress time and space quickly and effectively as a defensive winger, has a lot of proactive scanning traits offensively that allow him to move the puck quickly as well as get to secondary options without turning the puck over, and is very physical and not afraid to throw his weight around in corners, board battles, or take a licking to get a dirty goal out in front of the net.

He’s not going to carry the puck into the offensive zone for a controlled entry, nor is Ziemer going to get through a layer of the defense with his puck skill. He does have a fantastic shot, but the offensive tools are lacking and his entire point production will be based on who he’s playing with and if they can get him the puck in scoring areas.

He’ll enamor himself to Sabres fans by throwing big hits and giving 110% every shift. He’s shown he can play with offensive players without being an anchor in the NTDP, the hope will be that he can do the same going to the University of Minnesota.

Round 4, Pick 108

Sabres Pick: Luke Osburn, LHD, USHL

6’0, 172 lbs

60gp, 8g, 23pts

Luke Osburn was the one player I desperately wanted the Sabres to take a shot on in the mid-rounds. I love the player, and I thought he would be overlooked due to his counting stats in the USHL.

Qualitatively, he’s a dream player for me. Amazing four-way skating ability. He can dart quickly out of a stop to generate speed, uses both his edges to move around the ice with ease, and manipulates defenders offensively. Defensively he reads the play so well. He anticipates where the puck will be and battles when he defends the puck. He has the size to play against bigger opponents and the speed to contain the USHL’s top forwards on the rush. Add to that, he’s aggressive in his offensive approach to the game. He’s never shy to join a rush, to replace a forward on the cycle or activate into space in the offensive zone, and keeps his eyes up the entire time to survey the ice about where the puck should go. I truly see a diamond in the rough type of player with Osburn.

So why does he fall to the mid-rounds? I think it’s because he can make mistakes with his aggressiveness with the puck and that the details of his game are a bit raw still. For instance, there’s a play he made in a game in March where he breaks the oncoming defenders’ ankles at the blue line and then goes for the backdoor play through 2 defenders to a player for a potential tap-in goal (the puck gets knocked away) instead of going cross-ice to a high-slot one-timer. Sometimes he goes for the homerun instead of the double. His skating could use a step if I were to nitpick, but his agility and mobility make up for it in my mind.

I had one wish for the mid-rounds and it came true. The broadcast mentioned that his nickname is “Velcro” due to his defensive nature as well. Right now he’s not slated to go to Wisconsin for a few years, but I imagine that he’ll either bump up his commitment or change schools to get to the NCAA faster. I’d expect him to play one more year in the USHL to gain a more offensive role and then move to the NCAA in 25-26.

Round 4, Pick 123

Sabres Pick: Simon-Pier Brunet, RHD, QMJHL

6’2, 196 lbs

52gp, 4g, 14pts

Brunet played for the QMJHL champions Drummondvile Voltigeurs in a depth role behind Sabres prospect Vsevolod Komarov. The right-shot defensemen never popped during any of my viewings, and I didn’t track him as I didn’t see anything more than a sound defensive player with mobility and a decent reach. With the QMJHL, I have a high bar of what I want a prospect to accomplish given that the lack of talent in the league makes it a tough barometer to gauge effectiveness or projectability of a prospect.

In the Memorial Cup, I found him to be very good defensively against the top competition. He still played a minimal role in the games (they double shifted Komarov and he went out every other shift for about 14-15 minutes a night) and saw only the back part of a couple penalty kills, but his physicality and defensive game stood out. I’m not overly impressed with his transition game, but in the Memorial Cup teams tend to play it safe with clears and dump ins instead of attempting riskier transition plays.

He’ll get a major upgrade in role next year with the graduation of Komarov out of the QMJHL. Hopefully we see more of an offensive game and a shutdown defender in his D+1 year.

Round 6, Pick 172

Sabres pick: Patrick Geary**, LHD, NCAA (Michigan State)

6’1, 185 lbs

32gp, 5g, 13pts

Geary grew up playing for the Jr. Sabres until eventually going to the USHL before heading to Michigan State this year for his freshman year. He played a middle-pairing role for the Spartans and showed good mobility and there were flashes of a skill from the backend that I remember looking him up a few times on Elite Prospects to see if his counting stats lined up with any of the flashes of skill I saw.

He’s a D+2 prospect who has flash offensive skill but does not have the production profile that I’d expect from a future NHL player in their D+2 in the NCAA. His defensive game is hard-working and he’s a competitor, but he can get beat wide as his foot speed isn’t extremely mobile.

He’ll be a long shot to make the NHL, but there is something there to hope that he could work his way through the AHL to see bottom pairing defensive minutes one day in the NHL.

Round 7, Pick 204

Sabres pick: Vasili Zelenov, RW, AlpsHL

6’0, 181 lbs

40gp, 14g, 37pts

I knew nothing about the player when he was drafted and just watched his two most recent games on Instat to write this profile. What I can say about the player before getting into the tape is that the most interesting aspect of NHL draft profile is that the Green Bay Gamblers hold his USHL rights, so if I’m the Sabres, that’s where I Zelenov playing next year and then possibly going the NCAA route if he’s academically eligible to do so.

I watched his two most recent games on Instat to get a feel about the player. The AlpsHL league is a low-event, low pace hockey league. His team’s transitions mostly consisted of getting a defensive zone exit, get to the red line, and dump it in. Zelenov wasn’t involved in transition very much in either game. He is clumsy in his puck reception and takes an extra touch to settle the puck which allows defenders to get on top of him. His pace is low but his effort his high; he has a wide skating pace with short strides that limit his top speed.

The positives: he flashes some puck skill but it’s not consistent nor does he have the skating to go laterally to take advantage of it. When he has space with the puck he’s able to get to areas of the ice and he made a few nice high danger passes. He only attempted three shots across two games at even strength.

Cup half full: he has a motor and he flashes some skill. Get him to the USHL and see what he can do.

Round 7, Pick 219

Sabres Pick: Ryerson Leenders, G, OHL

6’2, 179 lbs

46hp, 3.12 GAA, .909 sv%

I’m not going to pretend I know how to scout goalies. For me, I always just look at the save percentage and consistency in net. The positives: he had the second highest save percentage in the OHL, had a over a .930 sv% in the playoffs and saved over 96% of the shot attempts in his one game for Canada in the u18s.

The negative? The other Missassauga goalie had a higher save percentage then him which could indicate it was a team defensive effort instead of a goalie making saves.

He’s big and has over 80 games of experience in the OHL. Hopefully he can get over a .915 sv% next year and see a role in the World Junior Championships.

Sabres Draft Grade

Sabres Choosing Players: B

Sabres Draft Process: C

I have no problem with the players with the players the Sabres selected. They didn’t swing for upside in the first three rounds which is why it’s not an A. I would’ve liked them to take a swing at a player with a longer runway to hit big than Kleber and Ziemer, but there are good players who I can safely project that they could see NHL games and thrive in the NHL with proper development.

The draft process this year was a bit nutty. I didn’t mind trading back from 11, but to then trade that second round pick for a depth forward when other players were going for much less or for not much more seemed odd. I feel like you can find a player like Beck Malenstyn in free agency for not much money. To give up an early second round pick (one where players like Teddy Stiga were still available) didn’t make much since.

I don’t ever agree with trading up in the draft, so trading up to take Ziemer I didn’t approve of. Trading back in the early 4th for a 7th round pick when there were a lot of players I liked that we missed out. Ryerson Leenders isn’t a bad pick that late in the draft, but when players like Raoul Boilard, Blake Montgomery, and Javon Moore were still on the board: those are lottery tickets I’d have liked to see us take a swing on.

My Own Faux Draft Picks

14: Michael Hage, C, USHL

42: Teddy Stiga, LW, USNTDP

71: Luke Misa, C, OHL

108: Luke Osburn, LHD, USHL

123: Daniil Ustinkov, LHD, NL

172: Mac Swanson, LW, USHL

204: Topias Hynninen, LW, Liiga

219: Aidan Park, F, USHS-Prep (Shattuck-St. Mary’s)