Full disclosure, when it was first announced yesterday that the New Jersey Devils fired Lindy Ruff I wanted no part of bringing him back. We even mentioned it during our latest podcast episode on Monday night as something neither of us wanted. I didn’t think a nostalgia hire was what the Buffalo Sabres needed right now.

Then I started to look at the numbers behind his time with the Dallas Stars and New Jersey Devils. After spending some time in the data, I’ve done a 180.

5 on 5 Team Performance

Ruff may be the type of coach they need. He can bring structure and accountability to the roster. To go along with that, his teams have been at the top of the league in offensive output wherever he goes.

In Evolving Hockey’s model, the Dallas Stars were ranked second in scoring per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 from 2013 to 2017. Over that same period, they were second in offensive shot quality.

During his tenure with the Devils, his club was ninth in 5 on 5 scoring and seventh in shot quality. Overall in his last eight years behind the bench, his teams were top 12 in expected goal and shot share at even strength five times.

The most impressive part about Ruff’s offensive results is it has sustained through different eras in the NHL. His Sabres and Devils teams were effective offensively when scoring was up. With the Stars, he maintained offensive results when scoring league-wide was down.

Counter-Attacking System

I truly believe that the Sabres roster as constructed with its core pieces will have optimal success in a system that focuses on offense. In particular, attacking on the rush and using their speed to counter. That has been when this team has looked at top form.

Ruff’s style seems like a perfect fit in that regard. In All Three Zone’s tracking data, the Devils have been one of the best transition teams in the league this season.

Even before the Devils hit their stride last season, they were an effective transition offense in Corey’s data.

Defense and Goaltending

The downside in Ruff’s career has been that the defensive numbers are below average. As a result, poor goaltending results have followed him in all of his stops. The goaltending is what got him fired yesterday.

I would chalk it up to bad luck if it wasn’t consistent throughout his career, outside of his time with Ryan Miller. With the Devils, they allowed a league-high 79 goals above expected in all situations from 2020-24. From 2013-17, the Stars allowed the 10th-highest goals scored above expected of 12.45.

There’s something within it that causes poor goaltending performance. It all can’t just be blamed on having bad goaltenders. Ideally, Ruff can likely get the best out of a team with an established goaltender in place to counteract some of the defensive shortcomings within his system.

Ruff has net positive results throughout his career when all of this is put together. He seems to have a system that best suits this roster and from a public relations standpoint it would be a win for the Sabres.

It’ll be interesting what he decides to do now at this point in his career. Does he want to get behind the bench again? He has discussed working in a front office at some point. Perhaps now is the time when he makes that transition.

If that is the case, the Sabres may want to be open to finding a spot for him there especially if Granato remains as the head coach moving forward. Ruff’s experience could be useful to clean up some of the issues in the current system and special teams.

Data via: Evolving Hockey and All Three Zones