As we enter the 2021 offseason, only three teams in the NHL have more current salary cap space than the Buffalo Sabres. With just 12 NHL contracts on the ledger for next season, Kevyn Adams’ club has just over $34 million in cap space to work with.

There is a very high likelihood that the Sabres will embark on another rebuild in the coming weeks. Barring something unforeseen, there is an expectation that Adams will attempt to collect future pieces in exchange for current core players, namely Jack Eichel. If that turns out to be the case, the Sabres front office would be wise to try and “weaponize” some of their cap space.

How do they go about doing that? Quite simply, Buffalo should be interested in relieving other teams of expensive short term deals in exchange for compensation in the form of young players or draft picks. As it stands, there are currently 10 NHL teams that will enter the offseason with less than $10 million in cap room.

In this series, we’ll cover each of them and examine how the Sabres can leverage their lack of financial commitments in order to amass additional futures. First up is the franchise with the least financial wiggle room in the NHL – the Stanley Cup champion, Tampa Bay Lightning.

Viable Cap Dump Targets

As of today, the Lightning are $3.5 million over the cap for 2021-22. With 11 forwards, five defensemen, and one goalie currently under contract, they’ll obviously need to find some relief. Eight of the eleven forwards on the Tampa Bay ledger make over $4 million per year and six of them are over the age of 28.

Tyler Johnson

It feels as though Sabres fans have speculated about acquiring Johnson for a few years now. At 30 years old, he carries a cap hit of $5 million for the next three seasons. While he remains a serviceable middle-six forward, the Lightning will have to make it worth an acquiring team’s while, given the amount of term remaining on his contract.

Before we dive into what Tampa Bay would need to add onto their side of the deal in order to make it palatable on the Sabres’ end, let’s take a look at what Johnson brings as a player. Over the course of his career, he’s experienced some volatility in his base scoring numbers (which have seen a modest, but noticeable decline since 2017-18). Last season, he posted a career-low scoring rate, registering 22 points in 55 contests (33 points over 82 games).

The same volatility exists in his underlying metrics, but in a rather interesting way. Year-over-year, Johnson’s xG impacts tend to vary at both ends of the ice. He has been consistent in terms of posting positive offensive impacts and negative defensive impacts, but the extent of said impacts tends to go up-and-down from season-to-season.

Interestingly enough, Johnson always manages to post positive xGF impacts. Part of that has to do with the fact that he’s played on one of the best teams in the NHL for his entire career, but in seven of his eight professional seasons in the league, he’s posted an xGF rate of over 50-percent (49.09-percent in 16-17).

The biggest hurdle (as it pertains to a Johnson trade) is his modified no-trade clause. He would obviously need to waive it in order to help facilitate any deal. If Julien BriesBois were to essentially say “look, it’s either this or we waive you” perhaps he could be enticed to bring his talents to Western New York. After all, he has two Stanley Cup rings at this point, so it’s not like he’s a veteran player who is chasing his first title. It’s a potential roadblock, but probably a manageable one, especially if something like the Sabres’ vacant captaincy was offered as part of it.

Yanni Gourde

Tampa Bay might be keen to rid themselves of Gourde’s cap hit, but this situation isn’t as straight-forward as the Johnson scenario. Though the two are very close in age and earn near identical salaries, Gourde is signed for four more seasons. That being said, he is by far the superior player of the two.

While Gourde and Johnson tend to post comparable career point totals (2020-21 season notwithstanding), Gourde’s underlying impacts are nothing short of stellar. Since 2017-18  (his first full season at the NHL level), he ranks 31^st among all NHL forwards in xGAR rate. In that same span of time, he ranks 28^th among NHL forwards (minimum of 2,000 minutes played) with an xGF rate of 54.82-percent.

Despite never really posting elite point totals (career average of 49.46 points per 82 games), Gourde has some of the best two-way on-ice impacts in the league. As with any Lighting player, it’s important to note the amount of talent he’s surrounded by, but that level of impact consistency is impossible to ignore. Both offensively, and in his own end, his year-over-year production is really awe inspiring.

So, why would the Lightning want to rid themselves of a player like this? Even more importantly, why would a forward of this caliber ever be considered a “cap dump”? Well, that’s why this proposition is a bit more complex. Obviously, Tampa Bay would have to be unable to deal Johnson in order to consider trading Gourde. On top of that, there would assuredly be competition for Gourde’s services, and the Lightning probably wouldn’t need to add much if anything to their side of the deal.

So, how would this make sense for the Sabres? Quite simply, they’re one of only a few teams that can absorb both the cap hit, and the term. Should they decide to pursue Gourde as an option, they must be extremely confident that he’ll remain a positive-impact asset for at least three more years, when Buffalo would ideally hit its window for contention.

Future Pieces

So, what should the Sabres be targeting in addition to Johnson or Gourde in order to agree to relieving the Lightning of their restrictive salaries? The obvious and most logical answer exists on the Tampa Bay blue line.

There are three young Lightning defensemen who could conceivably and realistically be included in part of a trade like this. The first is Mikhail Sergachev who, at 23 years of age, is coming off his most productive scoring season to date where he registered 30 points in 56 games.

As a target, he’s probably the loftiest expectation. Trading Sergachev in addition to Johnson would relieve the Lightning of another $4.8 million on the books ($9.8 million total) for next season. Still, that’s a very reasonable salary for his level of production and might require Buffalo to add more to its side of the deal in order to make it work. This is especially the case considering the Sabres would still hold his RFA rights once his deal expires after the 2022-23 campaign.

In the middle of the “realism spectrum” is Erik Cernak. At 24 years old, he too has two years remaining on his current contract until he becomes an RFA. At $2.95 million AAV, he would represent some additional relief for Tampa and would likely be easier for them to part with than a top-4 stalwart like Sergachev.

Analytically speaking, Cernak is probably the best target option. In three full seasons at the NHL level, he produced outstanding underling numbers, particularly at his own end of the ice. It’s worth noting that he’s played with a very high QoT level (his most common defensive partners since 2018-19 are Ryan McDonaugh and Victor Hedman). That said, he also has faced the highest QoC level among Tampa defensemen in the same stretch (opponent RAPM xG/60 rate of .027).

The last, and likely least enticing of the options is Callan Foote. In his rookie campaign last season, he struggled to produce much of an impact. Not known for his offensive prowess, his three points in 35 games wasn’t a surprise, but it still left something to be desired. The real problem was how poorly he fared defensively.

For a team that did an excellent job of dominating offensive chances-for (and subsequently limiting chances-against), the Lightning experienced a six-percent uptick in xGA when Foote was on the ice. At 22 years old, the ship certainly hasn’t sailed on his viability as a future NHL regular, but his debut was disappointing, particularly on a team with so much insulating talent. If he was to come back as part of a Johnson trade, the Sabres would need something else in addition (likely a high draft pick).

Trade Frameworks

Let’s close this out by performing a few hypothetical trades. While all of the information above helps paint a picture of what each asset brings in terms of on-ice value, it’s fun to speculate what these transactions might ultimately look like. For that reason, I’ve assembled three proposals, two of which involve Johnson (the more realistic of the two targets).

Proposal #1

To Buffalo: Tyler Johnson, Mikhail Sergachev,

To Tampa Bay: Jacob Bryson, 2022 4th-round pick

This one is pretty simple. Essentially, this deal assigns a first-round valuation on Sergachev. Due to the probability that Tampa Bay would have to part with at least a 2^nd round pick in order to unload Johnson straight-up, Sergachev’s presence serves as a replacement, given their complete lack of draft capital for the next two seasons (Tampa only possesses two picks in the first three rounds over the next two drafts).

Going back the other way, the Lightning get a cost-controlled asset to plug into their third-pairing for next season. With the talent on their team, they should be able to shelter some of Bryson’s shortcomings. A worthwhile endeavor, given his salary.

Proposal #2

To Buffalo: Tyler Johnosn, Erik Cernak, 

To Tampa Bay: Sabres’ 2021 6th round draft choice (Via Colorado 188th overall)

Even though I personally like Cernak just as much as Sergachev, there is no doubt which one holds higher value on the trade market. With that in mind, the Sabres would have to give up less in terms of value going back the other way. In this scenario, they part with the latter of their two sixth-round picks in 2021.

Proposal #3

To Buffalo: Yanni Gourde, Callan Foote

To Tampa Bay: 2021 2^nd Round Pick (Via Boston 53^rd Overall)

As stated above, Gourde is still a valuable asset, and despite being 29 years old, has shown no signs of slowing down. He’s a risk for a team like Buffalo, which is why he probably doesn’t make as much sense as Johnson (given the teams anticipated contention window) if Adams is indeed planning a full rebuild.

As a former first-round pick that has fallen short of his draft year expectations, Foote is a reclamation project of sorts for the Sabres back end. His value as a right-shot defenseman is notable since Buffalo doesn’t really have any of note currently developing on the farm aside from Oskari Laaksonen.

Tampa receives a second round pick, which they certainly could use, given their aforementioned lack of capital. Despite their prowess at the NHL level, the Lightning’s farm system looks very thin at the moment, which is another reason why this deal could look enticing to them (in addition to the cap savings).

Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Data via: Evolving Hockey and Micah McCurdy