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Casey Mittelstadt could be the key to the Sabres power play

by Chad DeDominicis - 0

For the past six years, the Buffalo Sabres power play has run through Jack Eichel. That’s going to change this year, While Eichel is still on the roster, he won’t be healthy enough to play at least early in the season if he’s not dealt.

Someone else on the club is going to have to step up and fill that void. Casey Mittelstadt is the player that I feel will be a key piece of the Sabres power play unit next season. Of course, he’s not at Eichel’s level, but he has a few traits that make him a lethal player with the man advantage.

Past Success

Over the last three years, Mittelstadt has been an effective player on the power play when he was given the opportunity. His underlying numbers with the man advantage were among the best on the team in the 2018-19 season and last year. There was a poor 2019-20 campaign sandwiched in-between there.

In 2018-19, Mittelstadt ranked fourth in the Sabres in on-ice shot quality (xGF/60) on the power play in Evolving Hockey’s model. Most of that time was spent on the second power play unit in only 133 minutes of ice time.

You’ll see above in the twins’ RAPM model above that the power play is where Mittelstadt made his impact with the Sabres in his first full pro season.

Last year Mittelstadt didn’t start to get a lot of power play utilization until Don Granato took over. At the end of the season, he ranked fifth on the team in on-ice shot quality per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey. Overall, the former eighth overall pick was one of the most impactful players on the team with the man advantage. He was fourth on the team in power play offense in Evolving Hockey’s goals above replacement model.

One thing that I like about Mittelstadt is his ability to play in multiple positions in the power play structure. He can step into that spot on the wall opposite Victor Olofsson that will be vacated by Eichel. He can be effective with his passing ability from that spot, but he can use his underrated shot as well. A handful of times throughout his career he has circled off the wall on the power play and beat the goaltender clean. Below is a clip of him doing this in college

Mittelstadt also can see the ice well to hit the seems on cross-ice passes to get the defense moving from anywhere within the structure. That’ll important so that the Sabres can continue to use Olofsson’s shot as a weapon as you see in the clip below.

He can also be effective in the middle of the ice with his quick release.

Mittelstadt’s versatility is what makes him a good player on the man advantage and is what this team needs. They had a stationary unit last year that relied on shots from primarily three locations.

You can see above in Micah McCurdy’s heat map that the Sabres relied heavily on shots from three spots. The two walls with Eichel and Olofsson, as well as the top of the umbrella. At times this strategy became too predictable and easy for the opponent to defend. Having players like Mittelstadt and Dylan Cozens on the top unit this season should allow the Sabres to move players around the zone with their versatility.

Zone Entry

Mittelstadt’s most important job on the power play next season could be his ability to enter the offensive zone with possession to set up the structure. Throughout his career, he has been effective at entering the offensive zone with possession not only with the man advantage but at 5 on 5 as well.

Eichel was the main facilitator of entering the zone for the Sabres over the past six years. He was one of the best in the game and opponents respected his ability by backing off at times. Mittelstadt has a similar ability to attack the defense with speed and create off of the rush.

According to Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, in the 2018-19 campaign Mittelstadt had a carry-in percentage of 76.5% on the power play and a setup rate off entries of 64.7%, which was second on the team. This past season he had a 66% carry-in rate, which ranked him first, and a 50% setup rate (second-best).

Mittelstadt is going to get the opportunity to play a huge role with the Sabres this season. Not only will his play at 5 on 5 be a key to their success, but his impact on the power play will need to be significant as well. I’m interested to see how Don Granato develops this system without the key cogs of years past in Eichel and Sam Reinhart.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, Corey Sznajder, and Hockeyviz
Photo Credit: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
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