So March is over. Congratulations to all, not only for making it through a pandemic March but also some of the worst local hockey the region has ever seen. It’s a lot more difficult to find things to write about amidst 18 straight games without a loss, but alas, I found a lining for optimism even through *waves arms* all of that from March.

At the end of the 2020 season, Casey Mittelstadt’s NHL outlook was becoming grim, spending only 31 games in the NHL and 36 down the 90 with the Amerks. After starting this season on the taxi squad, he first joined the Sabres active roster on January 24. After his first two games back in the lineup, Chad saw some flashes back in early February on film, and now as the sample size has grown to 20 games through the end of March, a clearer data picture is emerging that shows positive development from the 22-year-old.

Note: All data for 2021 through March 31

Season by Season

5v5 On Ice Per 60 Numbers, per Natural Stat Trick

Season	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	xGF	xGA	xGF%
2018-19	858:51	53.64	57.00	48.45%	1.86	2.37	44%
2019-20	325:01	47.63	57.05	45.5%	1.68	2.51	40.13%
2021	234:25	53.08	52.31	50.36%	2.27	2.37	48.89%

The biggest difference in Mittelstadt’s 2019 and 2020 seasons came in an offensive drop-off of about 6 shot attempts for per 60, as shot attempts allowed per 60 remained around 57. When incorporating shot quality, he was on the ice with about 0.2 fewer expected goals for and, meanwhile, about 0.2 expected goals against per 60. So as shot attempts against stayed consistent in quality, there was an increase in the quality of those shots they allowed. 

Now this season, Mittelstadt’s shot attempts for have returned to his first full season’s production while giving up 5 fewer shot attempts against per 60. With expected goals, expected goals against has returned to his 2019 level while expected goals for per 60 have increased by 35% since last season. 

Not to jump to the conclusion of the article too early, but on a team that has lost 17 of the 20 games Mittelstadt has played in this year, hovering around 50% for both expected goals and shot attempts on ice is an important step in the getting-the-Ever-Given-out-of-the-Suez-Canal-level project that it is going to take to turn the Sabres around. Team building-wise, having a third line, where Mittelstadt has spent almost all of his career (per Hockeyviz, below), at 50% for shot quantity and quality at 5-on-5 is the first step at controlling games, given that the first and second lines are consistently playing above 50% for shot quantity and quality at 5-on-5.

There is still certainly more room to improve for Mittelstadt to solidify a long term place in the middle six, especially on the defensive side of the ice, but the improvement his offensive production this season is a point of optimism in his age 22 season.

2021 Game Logs

With 20 games being a relatively small sample size still for all season summary statistics, let’s look at the individual game logs to see how those have looked for Mittelstadt on ice. (Yes I screenshotted the table from google sheets. You try that many columns and rows on WordPress)

I’ll save some counting. He’s been above 50% 5v5 corsi for 10 times, below 50% 9 times, and at exactly 50% once. For 5v5 expected goal percentage, he’s been above 50% 10 times and below 50% 10 times. Talk about hovering around 50%, huh? Using the Sabres whopping 1.36 5v5 goals for per game as a reference point (49 5v5 goals in 36 games – WOOF), Mittelstadt’s 5v5 xGF per 60 has only been below that mark 4 times. While it’s not the most efficient way to detect who is carrying a team’s offense from game to game, especially on a team that has failed this year to generate offense at 5v5, it’s at least good from game to game to see Mittelstadt consistently atop the charts.

2021 Shooting

My main takeaway from Mittelstadt’s shot profile, via Moneypuck, is that he has done a good job this season getting net front shots with very few point shots, going against the grain of the offense that for most of 2021 has been allergic to trying to score.

With only 27 shots in 20 games, and near expectation results, there isn’t too much more to expect from Mittelstadt in terms of the results he’s produced this season. In that third line ideal role, I’d personally prefer he be taking more than a single shot per game with offense being his strong suit throughout his whole development to this point. Hopefully those shot numbers will increase in April as the injuries have piled up.

So Back to Conclusions

This is the fourth season since Casey Mittelstadt was selected with the 8th pick of the 2017 draft. As the range of possibilities continues to narrow for Mittelstadt’s career outlook, the conversation for the offseason will be not what he can become, but instead, how can we best utilize him in the role that his production has begun to outline for him. If that is on a 50% or better Corsi and expected goals third line with time on the second unit powerplay, the Sabres development plan around Mittelstadt will be to compliment his spot on the wing with a finisher and a two-way center that isn’t Cody Eakin. His most common linemates this season of Curtis Lazar and Jeff Skinner would fit that while also fitting the criteria of Skinner driving his own line, which has been analyzed all season, so we’ll save that for another day. But for now, at least there is a glimmer of hope that Mittelstadt could be a secure rostered player for the next few seasons if he can continue to play at or above a 50% rate for his underlying numbers.

Photo Credit: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images