Welcome to the 2024 xB Buffalo Sabres Draft Guide! For the 2024 edition, I took feedback from last year, and have broken this up into multiple parts so that it 1.) Can load on your mobile device and 2.) It can be consumed in various readings and doesn’t take an hour to get through.

If this is the first time you’ve read my draft guide, let me break down how each section will go:

– Each draft pick the Sabres have will be given five players which I think are reasonable selections for the Sabres. They are broken down as Dream Scenarios (two given for each draft pick), Realistic Selections (two given for each draft pick), and a Wildcard Selection (one given for each draft pick)

– Dream Scenarios are based on my evaluation of the player, and where I believe they are most likely going to go in the draft. They are based on my draft philosophies and don’t take into account my studying of the Sabres past draft philosophies nor the current needs of the team.

– Realistic Scenarios are based on where I believe players may go in the draft, and are based on studying the Sabres’ previous draft philosophies, current prospect pool depth needs, and players, that if I were a part of the Sabres draft team, I would be okay signing off on the selection.

– The Wildcard Scenario is a draft pick that doesn’t fall directly into the two categories above and is a player that I think would go slightly later than the current selection (or undrafted in the later rounds), but I believe would make an interesting selection for the Sabres.

– First-time draft-eligible players will just have their names displayed in bold. Every asterisk after the player’s name will denote if they are a D+1 or D+2 draft-eligible player. For instance, Tanner Adams was eligible for the draft last year but was not drafted. He will appear in the draft guide as ‘Tanner Adams*”.

Last year this draft guide included Zach Benson in a Dream Scenario, Anton Wahlberg/Maxim Strbak in the Realistic Scenarios, and Gavin McCarthy in a Wildcard Scenario. Hopefully, this guide will get lucky again and provide insight to some of the players in the Sabres draft as they draft them. If not, then I encourage you to go to my draft rankings article to see if I had any notes about the player in that article before the recap article I will write.

Pick 172

Dream Scenario #1: Tanner Adams*, RW/C, NCAA (Providence)

5’11, 183 lbs

35gp, 6g, 21pts

Tanner Adams was the highest-ranked player in my draft rankings last year who didn’t get selected in the 2023 NHL draft. As a draft-eligible pivot, he was hyper-involved in his team’s transitions and facilitated play in the offensive zone. His skating has always popped when watching him play, and his motor and defensive responsibility made me believe that he had a versatile game that could play a specialized bottom-six role in the NHL if his offensive game didn’t take a leap.

At Providence this year, Adams made the transition to the wing. He showed a relentless motor, often deep in the forecheck as the F1 and occasionally as the F2 and his physicality and speed helped define the Providence offensive system. Providence wasn’t blessed with much in terms of offensive talent at forward this year (perhaps Trevor Connelly will change that in 24-25), but I found that Adams was able to facilitate play in the cycle game, and looked to gain inside advantages or move pucks to dangerous areas when possible.

Last year I attributed his bad puck luck when scoring goals to just that: bad luck. This year it became evident that, perhaps his biggest flaw, is that his wrist shot needs to be dramatically improved if it’s going to beat goalies from anywhere outside the front of the net. I think Tanner Adams had a great freshman year at Providence both qualitatively and on the stat sheet, but if he’s going to build on this past season and improve his statistical point line, it’s going to start by becoming a dual-threat weapon in the offensive end.

Dream Scenario #2: John Whipple, LHD, USNTDP

6’1, 194 lbs

61gp, 2g, 17pts

I’ve followed John Whipple’s career since his u14 Shattuck-St. Mary days. At Shattuck, Whipple was one of the most fun u14 players I saw that year. Playing with Celebrini and Eiserman, Whipple was the clear third wheel for me coming out of the program and he was a dynamic offensive weapon and was one of my favorite defensemen going into entering the USNTDP program.

Whipple’s trajectory changed dramatically as he went from an offensive dynamo before going into the program, to becoming one of their best defensive defensemen. His speed and agility have never wavered and remain the hallmark of his game, but his puck skill and manipulation tactics that gleaned power play quarterback at one time, have evolved to much more simplistic puck-moving defensemen without the carry-out skill or skill at the blue line to generate offense.

His microstat profile is underwhelming offensively. He was a very efficient passer completing over 76% of his passes but they weren’t generating dangerous chances. He was effective in transition but didn’t do much in carry-out transition. His defensive metrics were great in Corsi and turnover generation, where he was in the top 10 in the dataset.

Even if I draft Whipple for what he is now, I think that getting a defensively responsible player who plays with a mean streak and will lay some big hits while not giving up a defensive position is a great add in the last two rounds. I hope that his offensive game evolves as he transitions to the University of Minnesota and some of what I saw previously before the NTDP starts to show up in the next few years.

Realistic Option #1: Hagen Burrows, W, USHS-Minnesota

6’2, 165 lbs

28gp, 19g, 58pts

Burrows won the coveted Minnesota Mr. Hockey for his play in the 2023-24 season. He oozes skill and has a fantastic wrist/snap shot that destroyed the Minnesota high school circuit. When watching him play in high school, it was apparent that he wasn’t the fastest skater on the ice. When he transitioned to the USHL and played at Sioux City his lack of pace became even more evident. Despite putting up 22 points in 25 games in the USHL, Burrows remains outside of many public scouts’ mid-round rankings because of his low-end pace and skating speed.

I have grown fond of Burrows’ style of game. He reminded me of the USHL version of Luka Doncic, where you don’t understand how a guy who plays that slow can do just about anything he wants. The lack of pace has me slotting him as a winger even though he played both center and wing in games I’ve seen, and don’t get me wrong, skating and pace are perhaps one of the most important aspects of playing in today’s NHL.

However, with a lengthy runway going to the University of Denver in the fall and the above-average tool kit he has that still can be developed even further, I think a sixth-round pick is the perfect place to roll the dice and see if you can land a scoring winger in the late rounds.

Realistic Option #2: Blake Montgomery*, LW, USHL

6’4, 181 lbs

58gp, 22g, 43pts

Blake Montgomery pops off the screen when you put on the film. The 6’4 winger has great north/sound speed that he blends with creative puck skill and the willingness to throw his body around. It’s not too often that you find the size, speed, skill, and physicality all wrapped up into a single player, but Montgomery had it all in his D+1 year in the USHL playing for the Lincoln Stars.

The first paragraph screams of a player who should be picked in the mid-rounds, but a lot of what I talked about occurs off the rush or when he’s able to get his motor going with the puck on his stick in transition. Small area, in-zone offensive play for Montgomery will be the next step of his development. His passing off transition plays showed the ability to go cross-ice to the slot or dangerous areas, whereas his in-zone play was more about facilitating low-to-high cycles and crashing the net. Part of the reason his point production wasn’t nearly as high as his potential is the lack of detail in his game when the ice becomes compressed.

Still, the University of Wisconsin commit has a lot of potential for a player who is in his second go-around in the draft. If all goes well, he could similarly to Burrows, be viewed as a lottery ticket for a player who can play in the top-6 as a power forward with transition ability. There’s a lot to like in Montgomery’s game, and the hope is that he continues to make as big of a leap next year as he did going from high school prep hockey to the USHL this year.

Wildcard: Aidan Park, C/W, USHS-Prep (Shattuck-St. Mary’s)

6’0, 185 lbs

56gp, 30g, 93pts

Whereas Burrows and Montgomery show tremendous developmental aspects to their game with high-end skill, Aidan Park demonstrates a prospect of the opposite variety. Park is highly developed in the details and high-end thinking of the game. He is always in the right place at the right time, makes the right play more often than not, and his off-puck movement drives his goal-scoring and being proactive in his mental processing of the ice to be where the puck will be and not chasing the puck.

However, sometimes his hands and feet cannot pull off the highly skilled plays that he attempts. While there is a lot to love with his motor and his ability to play in a high-pressure, small-area game; I often find myself wishing there was a bit more skill to go with his game that could project him higher up in the line-up. However, being able to transition the puck and find open teammates in simple but dangerous situations showed up even in his USHL tape.

Park will go to the University of Michigan for the 25-26 season and will spend a full year in the USHL. If he can develop more higher-end skill manipulation to open up the passing lanes he’s looking for, there could be a developmental curve that sees him being an offensively productive middle-six type of player as he goes through the AHL to the NHL.

I like the fit for the idea of chasing a better bottom six for the Sabres. Having players that are defensively responsible and think the game in terms of possession will go a long way to improving the flexibility Lindy Ruff and the future coaching staff have when building lineups. Park has the pedigree and mental processing to continue to develop, but his ceiling may not be as high as it was once thought as he tried to make the NTDP a few years back.