Welcome to the 2024 xB Buffalo Sabres Draft Guide! For the 2024 edition, I took feedback from last year, and have broken this up into multiple parts so that it 1.) Can load on your mobile device and 2.) It can be consumed in various readings and doesn’t take an hour to get through.

If this is the first time you’ve read my draft guide, let me break down how each section will go:

– Each draft pick the Sabres have will be given five players which I think are reasonable selections for the Sabres. They are broken down as Dream Scenarios (two given for each draft pick), Realistic Selections (two given for each draft pick), and a Wildcard Selection (one given for each draft pick)

– Dream Scenarios are based on my evaluation of the player, and where I believe they are most likely going to go in the draft. They are based on my draft philosophies and don’t take into account my studying of the Sabres past draft philosophies nor the current needs of the team.

– Realistic Scenarios are based on where I believe players may go in the draft, and are based on studying the Sabres’ previous draft philosophies, current prospect pool depth needs, and players, that if I were a part of the Sabres draft team, I would be okay signing off on the selection.

– The Wildcard Scenario is a draft pick that doesn’t fall directly into the two categories above and is a player that I think would go slightly later than the current selection (or undrafted in the later rounds), but I believe it would make an interesting selection for the Sabres.

– First-time draft-eligible players will just have their names displayed in bold. Every asterisk after the player’s name will denote if they are a D+1 or D+2 draft-eligible player. For instance, Tanner Adams was eligible for the draft last year but was not drafted. He will appear in the draft guide as ‘Tanner Adams*”.

Last year this draft guide included Zach Benson in a Dream Scenario, Anton Wahlberg/Maxim Strbak in the Realistic Scenarios, and Gavin McCarthy in a Wildcard Scenario. Hopefully, this guide will get lucky again and provide insight to some of the players in the Sabres draft as they draft them. If not, then I encourage you to go to my draft rankings article to see if I had any notes about the player in that article before the recap article I will write.

After the mid-first round, the draft opens up considerably. What does this mean? There’s a group of players I think will go in the first 20 picks (this accounts for a few off-the-board picks that happen every year), and after that, there is a wide range of players that could be picked. In most years, I have a pretty defined tier of players for the early second round that get picked in that range, followed by a tier that goes into the mid-second to the early third round. This year that group is almost blended together. I could see players like Matvei Gridin or Cole Hutson going at the start of day two or not being picked until the mid-third round. That being so, I’ve decided to add an extra player in the draft guide for the first two rounds.

Pick 43

Dream Scenario #1: Teddy Stiga, LW, USNTDP

5’10, 179 lbs

61gp, 36g, 79pts

Every year I fall in love with prospects who think the game at an elite level and who play the game exactly like I’d want my players on my NHL team to play with high intensity, small-area skill, and able to make the right play almost every time. These players have included Zach Benson, Gavin Brindley, and Matthew Beniers in the last two drafts. Teddy Stiga is one of two of these players in the 2024 NHL draft.

In my 2024 NHL draft dataset of 97 forwards, there are three that averaged 7.5 shot attempts, 4 dangerous shot attempts, and 30 passing attempts with >20% of them going to dangerous areas and >50% off transition involvement per game. One of them has already been in the draft guide in Alexandre Blais, one is Teddy Stiga, and the other will show up in the first-round picks. The difference between Stiga and the other two? Stiga did it with 4 minutes less per game of average ice time.

Stiga was not a passenger to James Hagens on the NTDP’s first line. He was a driver of possession with Hagens and one who showed a grittiness to play as an F1 forechecker to generate turnovers deep in the offensive zone. He has an incredible motor, flying across the ice to continually put pressure on opponents and force turnovers. His skill level is very good, but not high-end. However, he makes up for it by being surgical in his approach to the game. He knows where the puck should go before he receives it, can make simple dekes and fakes to move defenders to get the passing lane he wants, and is tenacious in getting between the dots to get off his shot. He’ll crash the net, take the hit behind the net to feed a teammate out front, and find space in crowded areas off-puck to get himself open to take a shot.

He reminds me a lot of Benson in his draft year. There’s nothing to pick apart in his game outside of whether his skating and size be effective in the NHL. Well, Zach Benson played in the NHL as an 18-year-old and looked to be one of the smartest players on the ice during his rookie season. Stiga will go the NCAA route and will have time to physically develop and hopefully add a step or two in the meantime.

If the Sabres take a defenseman in the first round, then I’m screaming for them to take Stiga in the second if he’s available. (#8 in the video)

Dream Scenario #2: Alfons Freij, LHD, J20 Nationell

6’1, 196 lbs

40gp, 14g, 33pts

I just don’t understand why Alfons Freij isn’t talked about with the second tier of defensemen in this draft (Yakemchuk, Parekh, Dickinson), especially after watching every shift of his u18 performance for Sweden. He has one of the most translatable offensive skill sets in the entire draft. He has the puck-carrying ability to take the puck out of the defensive zone, excellent vision in his breakouts, great four-way mobility, and is one of the few defenders in this draft who can get past a defender at the blue line and get down in the offensive zone with the puck on his stick. He’s got a wicked wrist shot, I’d put him up there as one of the best wrist shots in the draft class from a defenseman. He’s not a slouch in the defensive zone and his mobility allows him to be a very good rush defender, and he battles hard in the corners and in the front of the net.

Yet, he’s continually put as a back-end second-round pick? There is only one fault in his game and that was his puck retrievals against extreme pressure and mobile forwards. When his feet weren’t able to get him out of a jam he didn’t have the secondary option readily available in his mind more than a few times that led to turnovers.

However, he is one of the best skating defenders in this draft with immense puck skill and I enjoyed his defensive game at the J20 level. Seeing how his game translates against men in Sweden in the Allsvenskan or SHL next year will be the next step, but I do not doubt that if he falls to 43 the Sabres will have drafted a player who should’ve gone at least twenty spots higher. I’ve gone forward-heavy faux drafting for the Sabres since 2019. I’ll tell you right now that if Freij is available he’s going to be the player I pick for my faux prospect pool. (#20 in the video)

Realistic Scenario #1: Sam O’Reilly, C/W, OHL

6’1, 183 lbs

68gp, 20g, 56pts

I’m going to continue the theme of putting defensively responsible centers as an option for the Sabres at draft picks. Earlier I gave Ollie Josephson, Jamiro Reber, and Aidan Park as potential mid-late round selections to fill this archetype. This time, I give the player who played a shutdown center role for the powerhouse London Knights who also has great skill and an offensive upside that could project as a needle-moving third-line center for a potential playoff team.

O’Reilly’s microstat profile was more facilitating than play driving. He was involved in over 40% of offensive transitions and often with the puck on his stick, and his passing was very good for the dataset. If I had one critique of O’Reilly’s offensive game at the moment it would be that I’d like to see him become more puck-dominant as he gets a larger role in the London Knight’s organization. He makes great reads in his passes and uses his size to protect the puck to give himself time to find players in the offensive zone as well. However, he’s often a bit too quick to give the puck up and I think keeping the puck on his stick for a second or two longer to drive down the wall or into the middle will help develop his creativity and also help his counting stats.

Defensively, he has all the hallmarks of an NHL shutdown center. He has tremendous motor and battles physically. He supports the puck better than most centers in the NHL draft and is there during 50/50 puck battles or loose pucks to make sure the puck starts going the other way.

I liked O’Reilly watching the Memorial Cup and their OHL playoff run. I thought his game was meant for the playoffs. There’s a wide range in his draft stock, with some rankings having him in the late-first round and others having him as a mid-late second-round pick. If he’s available, I think it makes a lot of sense for the Sabres to look at O’Reilly as a potential middle-six center who will open up the ice for more creative wingers in the NHL. (#23 in the video)

Realistic Scenario #2: Adam Kleber, RHD, USHL

6’5, 215 lbs

56gp, 5g, 26pts

Adam Kleber looks to be what the modern shutdown defender should be. Lengthy with very good mobility and a bit of a mean streak, it was rare to see Kleber not dictate play in the defensive zone this year in the USHL. When he kept a tight gap on defensive zone entries it was impossible to get by him. The only time I saw players get by him on a zone entry was when he gave them too much space to work with. He plays physically, but honestly, at his size, I thought he could play even more physically. Using his big frame to smash opponents coming along the wall or in the corners more often would bring an even greater depth to his defensive game.

Offensively there are some tools to work with, but the dataset didn’t scream a player who is poised for an offensive breakout. He didn’t send many passes to the dangerous areas of the ice in the offensive zone, nor did he find space to get off shots to ramp up his goal total. He does activate off the blue line and when he does, his mobility allows him to gain a step on defenders for him to have space to facilitate play. His hands don’t allow him much manipulation at the blue line, so he’s mostly looking to feed pucks down low or use his wrist shot to get pucks through as his offensive game.

Kleber isn’t a sexy pick. My thoughts are that if we take Kleber we’re drafting for needs and holes in the prospect pool over going best player available. However, given the state of the defensive core with Dahlin/Power/Byram, it’s hard to justify chasing other defenders in that archetype. (#2 in white in the video)

Wildcard Scenario #1: Marek Vanacker, LW, OHL

6’0, 165 lbs

68gp, 36g, 82pts

Vanacker was one of my favorite power forwards to watch this past year in North America. He blends a physical, one-touch power forward game with very good puck skill for his archetype and is one of the best forechecking and neutral zone defensive wingers in the draft.

His data profile was really good as well. He was involved in almost 30% of his team’s shots at even strength when he was on the ice, and he accounted for 43% of his team’s dangerous shot attempts. He was over a 50% offensive transition involvement rate and 23% of his passes went to dangerous parts of the ice. All of these are extremely impressive given the type of game he plays.

Defensively it seemed like he had the reach of a Tage Thompson and not a 6’0 forward. His stick was everywhere. If he was near a player trying to make a pass I began to just assume Vanacker was going to get a piece of it. He finishes hits and doesn’t shy away from physical confrontation.

The biggest developmental skill set he’s going to have to improve is his pre-scanning and mental processing to speed up his passing decisions. He completed less than 60% of his passing attempts which hurt his offensive transition success percentage as well. He was often receiving pucks off a defensive zone exit and then the next play determined the offensive sequence for his line. If he was able to find the next play his team would then dominate in the offensive zone, but too often he turned the puck over or dumped in the puck unnecessarily which lost possession for the shift.

I’m a big fan of his game, and think this would be a perfect selection for the Sabres given his upside and rounded two-hundred-foot game.

Wildcard Scenario #2: Ben Danford, RHD, OHL

6’1, 190 lbs

64gp, 1g, 33pts

Danford is what my late father would call a “Jeanneret player”. We often listened to the radio play-by-play of Sabres games growing up, and a Jeanneret player was a player that my dad would say “I don’t know what he’s doing, but he’s getting his name called an awful lot for doing good things” as he rarely watched the game and would be reading a paper or book.

Danford was heavily involved in just about everything that Oshawa was doing this past year. He thinks the game very well, and his positioning off the puck allowed him to clog passing and shooting lanes before the puck arrived at his assignment. He has very good mobility and defends the rush very well, with no hitch in his pivots he’s able to pivot to forward skating to defend oncoming rushes from faster offensive players. He battles hard in all facets of the game, and, rarely, you don’t see him finish a hit when given the chance.

Offensively is where the question marks lie. He has a much more offensive game than the counting stats say. He was one of the more active defenders in creating offensive transitions, and he has mobility and puck skill to hold on to the puck at the blue line to generate scoring chances as well. The issue lies in the execution and consistency of his offensive game. Right now, I would say he safely projects as a puck-moving bottom-four defender without power play responsibility. However, there is a skill set that he possesses that could see him become a PP2 quarterback on a team without an elite second option to quarterback the power play from the point.

The Assistant Captain of the Generals is someone I think more highly of than other scouts I’ve talked to, and taking a chance on the RHD in the second round and reaching 10-15 spots too early for him wouldn’t be out of the question. (#77 in red activating down in the video).