Johan Larsson is the Buffalo Sabres’ most important unrestricted free agent this offseason. After seven years with the club, the 27-year-old has the opportunity to move on to another team.

Unlike the majority of their unrestricted free agents, the Sabres would like to keep Larsson around. Unfortunately, the feeling doesn’t appear to be mutual. As I’ve shared before, I’ve been told by team sources that Larsson would like to explore his options on the open market and would prefer a new opportunity.

Outside of a big contract offer from the Sabres (unlikely), I would be surprised if he’s back in Buffalo. Evolving Hockey projects Larsson to receive a four-year contract with a $3 million cap hit in free agency. The Sabres would likely need to pay more than that for him to stay.

Shutdown Forward

Under the assumption that Larsson departs for greener pastures, the Sabres are going to miss him more than some think. I understand the points are nothing special, but that’s not what the Swedish forward is supposed to do. His job is to play a shutdown defensive role against the opponent’s top forward lines on most nights.

It’s a role that he has played with a lot of success. So much so that he’s arguably one of the top defensive centers in the league. You need to tread carefully when we look at with or without you (WOWY) charts, so I’ll stay a high level without going down the rabbit hole. In Larsson’s case, there’s a big discrepancy in defensive performance by the team when he’s on the ice.

Below is team defense performance this season at 5 on 5 when Larsson is on the ice from Micah McCurdy’s environment distiller.

Now, take a look at when he’s not on the ice.

The Sabres go from a very strong shot suppression club to an average one without Larsson. According to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals above replacement model, Larsson is ranked 18th among all forwards to play at least 500 minutes in even-strength defense per 60 minutes. In the twins RAPM data, he ranks sixth among forwards in shot quality against and 11th in shot attempts against at even-strength.

This isn’t a situation where people can use matchups as an argument against Larsson. He’s often matched up against the top offensive forwards on a nightly basis. If you go and look at Micah’s environment distiller I referenced above, his opponents played against are names like Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Nick Foligno, and Alexander Ovechkin. He also was the seventh highest forward in time on ice at 5 on 5 on the Sabres roster.

Larsson has some of the most drastic defensive deployment in the league as well. Over the last two years, he has an offensive-zone start rate of 26.52% at 5 on 5, which is the ninth-lowest among all forwards according to Natural Stat Trick.

No Roster Replacement

This all adds up to the Sabres not having anyone that can step into this role. They have nobody on the roster or in the system that can handle the defensive minutes against the opponent’s top forwards as Larsson has.

Curtis Lazar is probably the best candidate currently with the organization. He performed well this past season defensively, but this was only his second year in his career that he was deployed at less than 50% offensive-zone starts. He also didn’t play against the similar competition that Larsson faced routinely.

Rasmus Asplund missed an opportunity last season to show that he can fill the role Larsson was playing. After a strong start in the NHL, he faded and had some struggles in the AHL. Former Amerks head coach Chris Taylor deployed Asplund in more of a defensive role. In the 15 games I’ve tracked from last season, Asplund had an offensive-zone start rate of 38.5% and a 5 on 5 shot share of 45%.

The only other option in the organization is Arttu Ruotsalainen, but he hasn’t played an NHL game yet.

Larsson leaving the Sabres also opens another hole at center. They would only have one legitimate center on the roster in Jack Eichel. If you pencil in Dylan Cozens at center, even though it may be better to start him on the wing, Kevyn Adams needs to find two centers to fill out the Sabres roster.

He needs to find a center to add some more offense and a center to absorb the defensive minutes that Larsson was playing. That’s a tall order for any general manager, especially for one in his first year with little experience.

There’s a lot that Johan Larsson does for the Sabres that doesn’t show up on the score sheet. If they fail to properly address his departure with an adequate replacement, they’re going to struggle next season defensively.

Data via: Hockeyviz.com, Natural Stat Trick, Charting Hockey, and Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit: Jonathan Kozub/NHLI via Getty Images