Most of the Buffalo Sabres’ fan base has likely grown tired of the Jack Eichel trade discourse at this point. With that in mind, let’s shift some focus to the team’s second-most debated topic of the offseason – Rasmus Dahlin’s contract extension.

As a current RFA, the 21-year-old has inspired some discourse on Sabres Twitter, primarily as it pertains to what type of term the organization should be offering. For a player that came into the league with a lot of pre-draft hype, Dahlin has had some ups-and-downs in his three full (sort of) NHL seasons. That being said, there is a specific factor in his production that likely contributed to his worst stretch as a pro, which we’ll touch on shortly.

At the end of the day, Kevyn Adams has a decision to make. He can either try to secure his de facto top defenseman on a long-term deal (i.e. six-to-eight years) or offer him another bridge contract where he would remain an RFA at the end of it (i.e. a two-year agreement). Let’s dive into his impacts, the circumstances behind them, and the current market landscape in order to draw a fair conclusion.

The Krueger Effect

In his 197 NHL games to date, Dahlin has posted an xGF rate of 48.13-percent. That number on its own could inspire some concern. On top of that, his point production in 2020-21 (23 points in 56 games, which equates to about 34 points over a full season) took a drastic hit from the near 60-point pace (projected over an 82-game season) he posted in his first two years in the league.

In terms of his overall underlying numbers as a Sabre, his offensive xGAR numbers are really the only positive, and that mark is boosted significantly by what was an outstanding rookie campaign in 2018-19. As a player that displayed excellent zone-transition skills in that first season, his marks were pretty pedestrian in that regard last year.

So, what’s the context? Well, there’s a catch to all of this. A fly in the ointment if you will. That particular fly’s name happens to be Ralph Krueger.

There is a significant data disparity between Dahlin’s metrics under Kreuger compared to his rookie year under Phil Housley, and a 28-game stretch last season with Don Granato at the helm (following Krueger’s dismissal from the team). If it wasn’t already obvious by simply watching the games, Krueger’s conservative approach effectively neutered any of Dahlin’s trademark creativity and puck-carrying ability.

So, let’s compare timelines. In terms of games-played, Dahlin has spent a little less than half of his career with Kreuger as the team’s bench boss (roughly 44% of his NHL contests to date). In that span, his xGF rate was atrocious at 45.8%.

Interestingly enough, his base scoring production remained relatively consistent in that span which saw him produce 51 points in 87 contests. It’s worth noting however, more than half of that production came on the man-advantage (27 points). Dahlin’s even-strength struggles are the subject at hand here.

In the time he spent under Housley and Granato (i.e. anyone other coach but Krueger), Dahlin’s numbers experienced vast improvements across the board. In the 110 contests he’s appeared in sans Krueger, his xGF rate increased to 49.9%. That’s still not the impact you’d expect from a player billed as a “generational” talent, but it’s obviously much better.

Another factor to consider here is the timing of it all. Going from a wide-open system under Housley (one that accentuated Dahlin’s strengths) to an extremely conservative Krueger system probably had a negative effect on the development of a then 20-year-old player. With some consistent direction and long-term creative freedom, it would be interesting to see if and to what extent his xG impacts can climb.

Terms and Comparables

Now, let’s talk dollars and cents. Obviously Dahlin’s AAV demands would vary depending on the term offered. According to Evolving Hockey, a two-year bridge contract would likely land somewhere close to $4.9 million AAV. Alternatively, they anticipate a six-year agreement (for example) landing in the $6 million AAV range.

By my own estimation, the latter figure seems a bit modest (though EH has proven me wrong in this regard before). We’re talking about a league where an oft-injured Jake McCabe just signed a four-year, $4 million AAV deal last month. Dahlin and McCabe are not comparable players in terms of both age and skill set, but there’s no denying that the market for defensemen is inflated at the moment.

The most direct Dahlin comparable is probably 22-year-old Miro Heiskanen of the Dallas Stars who recently signed an eight-year, $67.6 million RFA extension. Both players are young, left-side defenseman who have posted similar point totals in their respective three seasons at the NHL level.

To date, they’ve also managed to produce similar RAPM impacts. That said, Heiskanen has had more success from an xG standpoint, holding a career rate of 52.82% on a very effective Dallas blue line. When adjusted relative to their respective teammates however, Dahlin’s overall xG marks gain a slight edge.

The general consensus is that the Stars probably overpaid to lock down Heiskanen on a max-term contract. Still, his AAV figure certainly doesn’t help the Sabres cause. There is an AAV threshold where a long-term Dahlin agreement stops making sense in favor of a bridge deal.

If Dahlin’s ask is anywhere close to what Heiskanen signed for, Adams will almost certainly opt for a shorter-term alternative. Every day that passes, more RFA defenders are signing gaudy contract extensions (see Seth Jones’ and Neal Pionk’s respective long-term agreements as examples).

Conclusion

Either option the Sabres decide to pursue comes as something of a risk. If they decide on a bridge contract, they are gambling against continued statistical improvements from Dahlin in Granato’s system. On a long-term deal, Adams must be careful not to approach Heiskanen’s valuation. Otherwise, in order to avoid the deal becoming an albatross, they’ll need to hope that Dahlin develops into the marquee defenseman he was billed to be.

So, where do we draw the financial line? How much AAV is too much when examining the prospect of a long-term agreement? To my eye, that threshold is around $7.5 million per year (though I am admittedly more optimistic about his continued growth in a more open system). If Adams can negotiate a long-term extension for less than that amount, he should absolutely choose that option.

Again, we’ll cite the market for recently extended RFA blueliners, several of whom don’t have the scoring stats, or underlying impact success that we’ve seen from Dahlin. A short-term contract could end up being an act of kicking a very expensive can down the road.

Saving cap space now only to risk spending a lot more later (i.e. when the Sabres would conceivably start hitting their competition window) seems like a foolish move. This is especially the case when one considers the superior production we’ve seen from Dahlin when he isn’t playing under Krueger. Simply put, if his demands resemble anything remotely close to the $6 million AAV mark that EH is predicting, Adams would be crazy not to take that option.

Is it a gamble? Absolutely, but it’s a manageable figure even if Dahlin never reaches his full potential. If he does start resembling the player we thought he could be following a historic rookie campaign, that AAV figure will look like chump change on the books.

We’ll have to wait and see how this all shakes out, but the savvier wager would be to push for more term, so long as the financial demand isn’t ludicrous.

RAPM Charts and xG Metrics courtesy of Evolving Hockey

Zone-Exit Chart courtesy of Corey Sznajder

Photo Credit: Sara Schmidle/NHLI via Getty Images