Buffalo Sabres 2021 Roster Battle: Forwards

Roster Locks (or close to it): Eichel, Skinner, Hall, Reinhart, Staal, Olofsson, Eakin, Girgensons, and Okposo

Before we get into the actual lineup battles, let’s briefly take a look at how many open spots we’re really talking about here. Obviously, players like Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner, Taylor Hall, Sam Reinhart, Eric Staal, and Victor Olofsson will have a spot in the top-nine. That group of six is really the biggest reason why anyone is giving the Buffalo Sabres even a sliver of hope to end their nine-year playoff drought in 2021.

While Cody Eakin, Zemgus Girgensons, and Kyle Okposo aren’t exactly fan favorites, we’d be kidding ourselves if we didn’t acknowledge the extreme likelihood that they’re going to play. Eakin was just signed to a two-year deal worth well over his market value ($2.2 million AAV). The same goes for Girgensons, who is clearly an organizational favorite.

Okposo is the only one who I wouldn’t necessarily bet my next paycheck on. Though he’ll undoubtedly be on the roster, he could serve as the team’s 13^th forward, especially if Kevyn Adams is keen to get a look at some of his younger fringe pieces. Though overpaid, he still plays a strong defensive role on the de facto fourth line and serves as a leader in the locker room.

So, that leaves us with three open spots in the offensive top-12 and quite a few players who could conceivably compete for them.

Fringe Battle: Cozens, Thompson, Rieder, Lazar, Ruotsalainen, Mittelstadt

We’ll give each of the above forwards their own section, ordered by how likely they are to cement themselves as “roster regulars” next month. What’s unique about this competition is the fact that all of these players have varying skill sets, which will obviously be a significant factor, depending on how Kreuger and Adams envision their bottom-six.

Dylan Cozens

It might seem ambitious to give Cozens the best odds here. He proved dominant with 85 points in 51 games with the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL last season, but he is still just 19 years old.

To be clear, the Sabres would be crazy to send him back to juniors. By all accounts, Cozens’ maturation process as a player has been swift. If Buffalo does indeed elect to keep him in blue-and-gold for the 2021 campaign, he’ll likely dress unless he really has trouble adjusting to the professional ranks.

In his D+2 year, they’ll want him playing, not wearing a suit in the press box. For that reason, he has the best odds of playing the most NHL games of the “fringe” group. Barring a catastrophic failure to transition to the pace of the NHL, he should dress regularly.

Tage Thompson

Thompson is sort of the wild card here. The front office certainly sees him as part of the future, as evidenced by the three-year, $1.4 million AAV extension they signed him to in the offseason. As far as his play on the ice goes, he’s a bit of a mystery.

Following an uninspiring inaugural season in Western New York, the 23-year-old rebounded nicely in 2019-20, posting 12 points in 16 contests with the Rochester Amerks. That hot start earned him another look with the Sabres.

Sadly, that stint was short-lived. In his very first NHL game last season, he was forced to leave early, sustaining a shoulder injury that would require surgery, and cause him to miss the remainder of the campaign. We’ll see if he picks up right where he left off, but for now, he’s probably the greatest “unknown” on this list.

Tobias Rieder

After signing a one-year, $700K contract, I hesitated to put Rieder so high on the list. Though he would represent something of redundancy on the fourth line, his experience on the penalty-kill and above-average play as a defensive entity are probably why the Sabres made it a point to pursue him. Otherwise, his NHL production basically screams 13^th forward.

In a season where teams will probably end up with a little more flexibility (i.e. a larger roster and “taxi squad”), it would be a surprise to see Rieder keep a consistent role unless he plays lights-out. While he might get one of the first cracks to show what he can do, his permanence is far from guaranteed.

Curtis Lazar

Despite being an obvious and significant downgrade from Johan Larsson, Lazar appears to be the heir-apparent at the fourth-line center this season. It’s probably safe to say that Sabres fans would probably rather see a player like Arttu Ruotsalainen get a crack at center this season over Lazar (and rightfully so). To put it bluntly, he’s a very “safe” pick here.

It’s not that the soon-to-be 26-year-old played poorly last season in Buffalo. He actually posted pretty strong defensive metrics, serving primarily as a bottom-six winger. Still, there is some concern about whether or not he would see the same success as a pivot on the team’s primary shutdown line. Like Rieder, he has the potential to float in and out of the lineup as a pseudo-regular.

Arttu Ruotsalainen

Considering the excellent season Ruotsalainen is currently putting together in Liiga (27 points in 19 games, a league-best), he should be a logical shoo-in for a roster spot. Unfortunately, given what we know about how the Sabres handle young players (particularly European imports), he might have to serve as an extra, at least at the beginning of the season.

Not only would Ruotsalainen add some scoring depth to a currently top-heavy lineup, but his positional flexibility and underrated two-way ability could give him an advantage (and a set of tools the Sabres need down the lineup). In the interest of balance, he might also look good alongside Eichel and Hall on the team’s top line.

At some point, Ruotsalainen will be an NHL roster regular. Hopefully, the organization learned from its mishandling of Lawrence Pilut. They cannot afford to alienate another cost-controlled young depth player.

Casey Mittelstadt

Mittlestadt’s inclusion in this section feels a little arbitrary. He is certainly a step or two behind the “field” and has probably proven the least of anyone listed above. That said, his draft pedigree puts him in the conversation. There were some flashes of greatness in his 36-game stint with the Amerks last year, but nothing to really represent demonstrable progress in his development.

Currently, the 22-year-old is in a bizarre game of contractual chicken with the organization. It’s especially curious considering his status as a 10.2C RFA. There’s a chance he’s traded before the start of the season, but if not, his climb to a spot on the roster is a steep one.

Opening Night Lineup (Prediction)

I’ll preface this section by saying that this is not my personal preference, but rather what I believe the Sabres will do based on the current financials and their past personnel-management history. It’s probably fair to expect a mix of experience and youth, but the fringe veterans will likely get the first opportunity to show that they belong.

Hall – Eichel – Olofsson

Skinner – Staal – Cozens

Rieder – Eakin – Reinhart

Girgensons – Lazar – Okposo

At least, in the beginning, the “winners” of those last few spots will likely be Cozens, Lazar, and Rieder.

The only potentially “glaring” omission here is Thompson, but for a young player recovering from a severe injury, I’d expect that they’d want him to get some practice in (especially considering the shortened training camp schedule) before hammering him with regular minutes. For that reason, I feel he’ll be left off the opening-night roster in favor of a veteran like Rieder or Lazar.

Personally, I believe that the biggest “mistake” here would be Ruotsalainen’s exclusion. If his dominance in Liiga this season isn’t enough to convince the Sabres that he’s ready to don the blue-and-gold, I’m not sure what will. Unfortunately, the franchise tends to defer to veteran contributors, especially in the bottom-six. Until that is no longer the case, I’ll remain skeptical at their propensity to try something bold.

One way or another, we’re in for a much more intriguing training camp than we’ve had in years past. For the first time in a long time, the Sabres have viable options in what finally looks like a legitimate crop of NHL-capable forwards. Stay tuned.