Of all the defensemen projected to go in the lottery, Daxon Rudolph was the one I was most down on, furthest from consensus. I get why people like him. I don’t see the same player.

That’s not to say Rudolph isn’t talented. He is. There are flashes throughout his game that make you understand why teams believe there’s legitimate offensive upside here. I think there’s a lot more projection involved than people are willing to admit.

Let’s start with transition because that’s where so much of today’s NHL game is won.

Rudolph’s transition game is built around activation. He loves playing give-and-go hockey. He’ll make a quick outlet pass to a winger on the wall, immediately jump into the rush, and hope to get the puck back through the middle of the ice. When that works, it looks great. He creates odd-man situations and joins the attack naturally.

The problem is when he has to do the heavy lifting himself. As a puck transporter, I think he struggles. The puck skill is clunky, and he struggles to use his frame to shield pucks or his reach to keep pucks away from sticks. He doesn’t consistently manipulate defenders with his hands, and he lacks the lateral edgework to shift around pressure before protecting the puck. When defenders play him tight, he loses control, and too many possessions simply die.

Then there’s the passing. This might be the strangest part of his game. Rudolph loves one-touch passes. Sometimes they’re brilliant. He catches a puck, immediately zips it into space, and suddenly, his teammate is attacking with numbers.

Other times…

I’m left wondering why he moved the puck so quickly. He’ll have five feet of open ice, plenty of time to make a read, and instead he’ll one-touch the puck right onto an opposing defenseman’s stick in the neutral zone. It’s almost like he’s predetermined the play before the puck ever gets to him. Those are turnovers you can’t afford at higher levels.

The offensive-zone game leaves me feeling the same way. There are things I really like. When Rudolph activates down the wall, he has a knack for finding the slot. He understands where dangerous ice is, and he’ll make some really nice passes into scoring areas.

But then the puck gets back to the blue line…

…and he’s shooting.

Every.

Single.

Time.

He loves point shots. Honestly, I think he loves them a little too much. Instead of walking the blue line, changing his angle, or attacking deeper into the zone, he’ll often fire the puck immediately. Sure, sometimes it creates a rebound or a scramble in front. Other times it’s a shin pad. And now it’s an odd-man rush going the other way. That decision-making has to improve.

The defensive game is where I have the biggest concerns. I just don’t think he defends rushes well enough. He gives attackers too much space. He isn’t particularly eager to engage them early, and if he fails to angle them toward the boards, they can beat him wide with surprising regularity.

In-zone, I actually like him a little more. He isn’t overly physical, but he has an active stick, disrupts passing lanes effectively, and does a nice job cutting off those high-to-low plays that so many teams try to generate offense from. There are defensive habits to build on.

But for me, there are simply too many question marks. Can the puck transportation improve? Can the decision-making become more consistent? Can he defend NHL rush attackers? Can the offense translate when so much of it relies on quick-touch hockey and point shots?

That’s a lot of “ifs.”

There’s absolutely a path for Rudolph to develop into an offensive-minded NHL defenseman. He’s going to a great place to develop at the University of Denver. Ryan Lin may be going there as well, but Rudolph played on the half wall on the power-play at Prince Albert, so perhaps he’s still seeing PP1 opportunities next year as well.

I just think the runway is longer than consensus does, and players like Reid/Bjorck/Lawrence still on the board, I’d rather bet on prospects who have fewer hurdles between where they are today and where they need to be to become impact NHL players.

Photo Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images