A lot has changed for the Buffalo Sabres in the last four weeks. If you recall, at the beginning of December, most fans were talking about how an upcoming 14-game stretch would be the sink-or-swim moment. This particular 14-game window was significant because 11 of them were on the road.

Entering the December 3rd game in Philadelphia against the Flyers, the Sabres have not won on the road in regulation. They were 2-6-2 away from Buffalo with the lowest points percentage in the league, kicking off a six-game road trip.

The trip started with three losses in a row, and it seemed to be over for the Sabres. Rumors of a change at the general manager position began to swirl in the middle of the road trip out west.

The Turnaround

They snapped their losing streak in Edmonton with an overtime win after blowing a multi-goal third-period lead. Then, two days later, they picked up their first regulation win on the road in what ended up being Quinn Hughes’ final game with the Vancouver Canucks.

Fast forward to the final day of the year, and this club ran off 10 wins in a row. They climbed to a 9-10-2 record on the road now. The Sabres are still at the bottom of the league in points percentage earned on the road, but they rank 25th now, instead of 32nd.

The 14-game stretch ended with a loss in Columbus on Saturday to snap the winning streak. The whole picture is that, at this critical point in the season, they went 10-4-0, picking up 20 of a possible 28 points. This stretch has vaulted the Sabres back into the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference race with 42 games remaining.

Entering play tonight, the Sabres are two points out of the final wild card spot. However, they are in the second wild card spot if you go by points percentage. They’re six points out of third in the Atlantic Division, but they have games in hand on the teams ahead of them.

Some fans have scars from the last 10-game winning streak that amounted to nothing for this organization. That was a stretch of hockey with multiple overtime/shootout once, and puck luck to win through some poor on-ice numbers.

That’s not the case here. I’m not a fan of breaking down in smaller samples, but for kicks, here’s how they ranked at 5-on-5 in Evolving Hockey’s model over this whole 14-game window.

They were 15th in expected goal share (50%), 18th in shot share (50%), and 7th in goal differential (54%). The Sabres were still generating offense at a similar rate, ranking 16th in shot quality for and 16th in shot quality against.

Of course, the goaltending was a significant factor. They had the eighth-lowest goals against per hour rate at 5 on 5 over this stretch. On the flip side, they scored at a lower rate at 5-on-5 than their full-season number of 2.46 GF/60, which was 19th overall.

The goalies may come back down to earth a little, but the scoring rate should improve to counter it.

What I’m trying to say here is that all the numbers in the public sphere point to a team that is, at worst, average, and they should be in the playoff race. I’m not saying they’ll definitely be a playoff team, but they’ve dug themselves out of the early-season hole.

General Manager Change

With the team on the ice getting back into the mix, focus shifts to how new general manager Jarmo Kekalainen will play this. Of course, during the 10-game winning streak, you can’t touch much of anything. Now that it’s over, I’m curious to see how quickly he’ll be able to change things on the ice.

Does he look to add a forward to bring in more offensive talent? Would he target more depth on the blue line with Conor Timmins out long-term and Michael Kesselring battling an injury again? How eager would he be to force a coaching staff change if the power play continues to struggle?

Don’t forget, the Alex Tuch decision looms as well.

We’re essentially at the halfway point of the season, and this club is in a spot that hasn’t been in often during the playoff drought. Kekalainen finds himself in a position where he has to make the decisions he feels are best for moving forward as a new general manager, but also can’t fall into the trap of letting this opportunity pass him by.

It’s not an easy situation to balance, but it has to be one Kekalainen is thrilled to be in at this point. The fan base is excited about this team once again, and he’s working with a clean slate on molding this roster.

Last time the Sabres were in a playoff race in 2023, it was a lot of fun to live and die by the day-to-day scoreboard. I’m looking forward to that again and the excitement that will come with it. Hopefully, the final result will be different this time.

Photo Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images