Though it probably isn’t something that fans of the Buffalo Sabres will want to hear, it’s time to face reality – Victor Olofsson hasn’t shown much (if any) improvement at even-strength this year. Last season, his incredible production on the power-play (and subsequent long-term injury to close out the season) gave the illusion that the 25-year-old was developing into a “core piece” on the roster.

The good news here is that Olofsson is still an elite goal-scoring entity on the man-advantage. Given his current salary of $3.05 million AAV, his 24-goal pace (over an 82-game season) still represents solid value. That being said, he’s exactly the type of asset that a smart team would “sell high” on, and a naïve team would overpay to retain.

Before we dive into asset value (and what the Sabres’ next move should be in that regard), let’s examine his underlying metrics. Comparatively speaking, Olofsson’s expected-goal numbers are staggeringly similar to last season.

In 2019-20, he spent a vast majority of his time flanking Jack Eichel on the Sabres’ top line. Despite playing alongside an elite centerman, Olofsson still only managed to score five goals at five-on-five through over 654 minutes of action.

This further emphasizes how heavily his base scoring impacts were skewed toward his production on the power-play. The idea that he was a “good fit” next to Eichel last season is a misguided one. Eichel produced MVP-caliber numbers in spite of Olofsson.

Through 32 games so far this season, his current on-ice xGF rate of 41.62-percent is actually on pace to fall short of his mark from 2019-20 (44.41-percent). Only Cody Eakin, Kyle Okposo, and Tobias Rieder have posted lower xG metrics on the year.

The only real contextual difference for Olofsson this season is that he’s spent significantly less time with Eichel (who, as previously stated, didn’t really help elevate his impacts anyway). Instead, Eric Staal has been his most common centerman this season. Unsurprisingly, Staal’s on-ice xGF rate experiences a six-percent reduction when he skates with Olofsson on his left side.

To go a step further, there isn’t a single Sabres forward who has experienced a positive xGF rate alongside Olofsson (minimum 50 minutes TOI). Sam Reinhart has actually spent more even-strength time on the ice with Olofsson than any other Buffalo forward in 2020-21. Reinhart’s xGF rate has experienced more than a 13-percent reduction while playing with the second-year left-winger. Compounding on that problem is the fact that Olofsson’s xGF rate only improves by about two-percent alongside Reinhart, a player who tends to elevate his linemates’ metrics.

In an attempt to find something Olofsson does well at even-strength, I looked into his transition metrics as well. In terms of five-on-five zone-entries, he is pretty below-average. While the Sabres experience a higher-degree of zone-entries per-60 while he’s on the ice, he has one of the lowest carry-in rates on the team.

One positive note I did stumble upon was how well Olofsson does recovering the puck in the offensive zone. In fact, he leads all Buffalo forwards in dump-in recoveries. That’s about it though. He doesn’t contribute a high degree of primary shot assists, individual scoring chances, or opportunities off of rebounds.

Those are all just offensive metrics for the most part. It might come as a surprise that, for as poor as he is on defense, his offensive marks have been arguably worse in terms of xG over/under team average. He’s genuinely been a five-on-five drag in nearly aspect of the game. It’s not hyperbole to say that he really only does that one thing (i.e. stand in a stationary spot and shoot pucks on the power-play).

So, what should the Sabres front office do here? While Olofsson is only in his second NHL season, he is going to turn 26 years old this summer. After next season, his current contract will expire, and he will become a restricted free agent. There are a couple different ways Kevyn Adams can approach this situation.

He could also use another productive goal-scoring year to leverage a trade this summer. Considering Olofsson’s very manageable cap hit, now might be the best time to see if a team would be willing to overpay for a young sniper.

The Sabres have a lot of holes to fill and selling high on a depreciating asset wouldn’t be the worst idea. It also helps that the organization has Arttu Ruotsalainen developing in the system. His power-play prowess as a right-side sniper has translated from Finland to the AHL level, so the special teams drop-off caused by losing Olofsson could be mitigated (to an extent).

The second, and perhaps smartest option would be to finally come to grips with Olofsson’s five-on-five shortcomings and utilize him as a bottom-six player/power-play specialist. That move (i.e. ice time and situational deployment reduction) wouldn’t really impact his box score production (or by extension, his trade value) since, as previously explained, most of it occurs on the man-advantage.

One way or another, the Sabres need to find a way to mitigate the negative impact results Olofsson produces at even-strength. The worst conceivable option would be to double down in 2021-22 and force him into a top-six role yet again.

Extending him to an expensive long-term contract would also be ill-advised. If he continues to rack up power-play points next season, he’ll expect a significant raise. Buffalo would be wise to try and trade him in lieu of overpaying for a player who only has one specific utility (see Patrik Laine). Given his RFA status, the fact that he’s on an expiring contract isn’t overly detrimental. The Sabres could still get a sizeable asset return for his services either at the 2022 trade deadline, or the following summer.

Again, this is a tough conversation to have about a player who quickly became a fan favorite in his rookie season. Still, if the Sabres want to turn the tides and become an strong asset evaluation team sometime this century, they need to be objective. Power-play proclivity is great, but it can’t be at the expense of five-on-five xG share. Reduce his even-strength role, and look for a trade if his representatives expect a significant raise next summer.

xG Metrics and TOI Metrics courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Charts Courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and Corey Sznajder

Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images