You are here
Home > Player Breakdown >

Olofsson is the Swedish forward with a ton of finish

by Chad DeDominicis - 0

Victor Olofsson had a strong rookie campaign for the Buffalo Sabres. He finished the season scoring at a 30 goals per 82 game pace. It’s unlikely that he’ll have a chance at winning the Calder Trophy (rookie of the year), but it’ll be interesting to see if he’s one of the three finalists.

He was deployed on the top line and first power play unit for the majority of the season. An opportunity that many rookie players do not see and to Olofsson’s credit he took full advantage of it.

The Finisher

The 24-year-old forward is an interesting player to examine. His scoring stats are impressive and speak for themselves. Olofsson possesses one of the top shots in the game and he’s the perfect finisher. He has shown the ability to put the puck in the net at all levels and those players are key to have on your team. After all, the goal of the sport is to score more goals than your opponent.

On the flip side, he doesn’t provide a lot more beyond his shooting ability at 5 on 5. He’s not a play-driving winger offensively and he’s not great in his end of the ice either. Throughout the season he improved his game in some areas, like his play on the wall in both the offensive and defensive zone.

It’s important to understand his strengths and weaknesses at 5 on 5 to determine where he should play in the lineup. He needs to play with a strong playmaking forward that can create the offense and allow him to finish with his elite shooting talent.

You can see what I’m talking about in Micah McCurdy’s isolated impact chart above. He’s a net negative at both ends of the ice, but his scoring impact is excellent. On his offensive heat map above it shows that he doesn’t get a lot of shots around the net. Of the forwards on the roster to play at least 300 minutes for the team, only three players had a worse individual shot quality (ixG/60) rating than Olofsson, according to Moneypuck.

Olofsson’s style of play reminds me of another elite sniper in the league, Patrik Laine of the Winnipeg Jets. Both players succeed off of their shooting talent, but don’t provide much else offensively if they’re not scoring.

Laine is still the better hockey player of the two because he does provide a little more to his offensive game than Olofsson at his point. Laine is decent in his transition game and this season added some playing making ability to his game. Where Olofsson, on the other hand, relied strictly on his shooting at 5 on 5 to create offense.

I want to be clear that this type of player still can be successful in the NHL. Shooting talent is a trait that can allow players to outperform their shortcomings in other areas. In Olofsson’s case, he can improve his 5 on 5 game. This was only his first season in the league and some of his impacts could be low because of the high quality of teammates that he played with (Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart).

Power Play

Where Olofsson cashed in this season was on the power play. Half of his goals this season came with the man advantage and two more were scored in a 6 on 5 situation. According to Evolving Hockey, he was seventh in the league among all players to play 150 minutes on the power play in goals per 60 minutes (3.47).

When you combine his shot with his ability to find the spaces in the defense to make himself available, it’s easy to see why he’s dangerous with the man advantage. The unfortunate part with the Sabres power play is at times they would try to force the play to Olofsson and opponents began to catch onto that. It’s one of the reasons that the top power play unit struggled at times.

The Sabres are lucky to have a seventh-round pick pan out the way Olofsson has for them. This is an organization that hasn’t had a lot of contributions from late-round picks over the last decade.

There are some shortcomings in his game at 5 on 5 and that may not change. It’s possible he can go a stretch of games where he doesn’t provide a lot offensively and can be frustrating for fans. However, if he’s placed with the right linemates, he should be a consistent 20 to 25 goal scorer in the NHL, with the potential to reach 30.

It’ll be interesting to see how Jason Botterill handles his contract negotiation in the offseason. Olofsson is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights.

Data via Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz.com, Moneypuck, Corey Sznajder, and CJ Turtoro
Top