The Buffalo Sabres’ eight-game point streak came to an end yesterday, but things are certainly looking up. Since March 18th, the blue and gold have posted a 5-1-3 record, and the almighty vibes are still riding high as we approach the final stretch of the season.

The team’s recent success coincides with Zemgus Girgensons’ return after missing 18-games due to injury (the nature of which was undisclosed). This isn’t to say that the Sabres’ point accumulation is a direct result of Girgensons’ return, but it has certainly helped.

As a former first-round pick with high expectations, fan perception of his value is all over the map. While he never really became what many were hoping for after being selected 14^th-overall in 2012 (and subsequent appearance in the 2015 NHL All-Star Game thanks in no small part to his native country of Latvia), he is still a valuable asset.

Last month, I wrote about the fact that defensively competent forwards are often undervalued by the general public, and Girgensons is no exception. In that spirit, I wanted to look at his impacts, not only since his return from injury (which we’ll touch on) but on the year as a whole.

The Zemgus Effect

Historically, Girgensons has produced consistently strong defensive impacts. Even though he’s never produced over a 50% xGF rate over an entire season, his xGA marks are consistently among the best on the team, despite a wildly disproportional OZS rate of 32.73% since 2018-19.

Any coach would be thrilled to have a player who can absorb a lion’s share of defensive-zone starts while also producing above-average (relative to the team) xGA results. Because he’s been so historically useful in that regard, he hasn’t had a lot of ice time serving as a complement to more offensively-inclined forwards.

Going as far back as 2016-17 his most common linemates have been Johan Larsson (who hasn’t been a Sabre for two years), and Kyle Okposo. It’s great that he’s been able to serve in a shutdown role, but I would like to see how much his presence would help the younger, more offensively-inclined forwards on the roster (perhaps a conversation for another time).

Regardless, in the 44 games, he’s played this season, Girgensons’ underlying metrics have remained consistent. His OZS rate of 37.74% has been right around his career average, and he ranks second among Sabres forwards with an xGA/60 rate of 2.20 (Rasmus Asplund is first at 2.04).

The most incredible thing about Girgensons is his ability to do the impossible – producing positive xG impacts alongside Cody Eakin. Well, sort of.

In 240 minutes playing alongside Girgensons at five-on-five, Eakin holds an xGF rate of 47.56%. Away from Girgensons, that same metric drops down to 39.32%. It’s worth noting that Kyle Okposo’s presence on that line probably helps as well, but when Girgensons was hurt, the Okposo-Eakin tandem only managed an expected goal share of around 45%.

Aside from Rasmus Asplund, every Sabres forward has performed better with Girgensons than without him, particularly in terms of their on-ice xGA metrics.

If counting stats is your thing, Girgensons’ scoring pace of 30 points over 82 games is his best rate since the 2014-15 season. It’s not like he’s experiencing any PDO luck either. His rate of .991 ranks right around the middle of the pack among his Buffalo contemporaries.

Deployment Impact

We’ve discussed Girgensons’ contributions, and his teammate impacts, but what about his effect on the team as a whole? It’s probably not a coincidence that the Sabres’ team xGA rate experienced a massive improvement once he returned to the lineup.

In the 18 games Girgensons spent recovering from injury, the Sabres’ five-on-five xGA/60 rate of 2.93 was the fourth-highest mark in the league. In the 10 games since his return, however, that rate has dropped down to 2.15, which is the fifth-lowest rate in the NHL during that stretch.

I know what you’re probably asking yourself – Anthony, you mean to tell me that the return of one player has singlehandedly caused such a drastic impact? Well, no. At least not directly.

You might be surprised to learn that Girgensons’ five-on-five xGF rate since his return is a paltry 37.24%. Without any context applied to that figure, you could be led to believe that he’s struggling badly.

While Girgensons isn’t out there bird-dogging every chance-against for 60 minutes a night, he has allowed Don Granato to do some different things with his lineup. Last week’s contest against the Winnipeg Jets (an opponent the Sabres largely outplayed, but ultimately lost to in a shootout) is a great example of what I’m referring to.

According to Natural Stat Trick, The Girgensons-Eakin-Okposo line skated for 10:39 at even strength. That TOI rate was virtually equivalent to the 10:37 posted by the de facto top line of Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch.

Why is this important? Well, the Girgensons line received only one offensive zone start the entire night. More than 85% of their zone starts came in the defensive zone. This allowed the three of the other forward lines to take on extremely favorable matchups. No other trio experienced an OZS rate of under 60% on the evening.

Because I love to nitpick, I went back to the game data since Girgensons’ return to the lineup.  As expected, this trend wasn’t unique to last night’s contest. In those 10 games, the Girgensons line received a total of 17 offensive zone starts.

This translates to an OZS rate of just under 30%. There were also only six individual instances during that stretch where another line was deployed with an OZS rate of under 50%. So, while Girgensons’ individual xGA/60 rate in those games comes in at 2.66, his absorption of difficult matchups has allowed the rest of the team to experience extremely favorable zone-deployment ratios.

As illustrated in the chart above, there is a distinct QoT versus QoC disparity this season, which isn’t uncommon for defensively specialized forwards. To go a step further, I was curious to see how Granato was handling zone deployments in Girgensons’ stead. In pulling up the handful of games leading up to his return, I got my answer. Frankly, there was no consistency at all.

While there always seemed to be one line taking a majority of defensive starts in a game, it never remained consistent. It was almost like Granato had all of the forward trios taking turns handling heavy defensive duties on a night-by-night basis. Regardless of which line was responsible for the DZS tilt on a given evening, they would regularly get caved in, allowing an alarmingly disproportionate amount of chances against.

The regained team consistency that Girgensons’ presence has seemingly allowed is beneficial on its own. Though he isn’t single-handedly lugging Eakin around en route to positive xG metrics, his impact is being felt throughout the roster. He’s mitigating just enough damage in his defensive deployments that Granato feels comfortable leaning on him. This, in turn, has resulted in heavy OZS increases for every other line.

Before his injury, Girgensons led the team with an xGF rate of 48.77%. If he can get back to full strength and consistently replicate that metric in heavy defensive minutes, the overall team benefit I just described will become even more apparent.

Advanced Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick
Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and JFresh Hockey

Photo Credit: Joe Hrycych/NHLI via Getty Images