As we reach the home-stretch of our free-agent profile series, we’ve saved one of the most interesting for last. With the UFA period beginning this morning, fans of the Buffalo Sabres will have their eyes set on some of the more high-profile forwards on the open market. One name that many have expressed interest in is former Colorado Avalanche winger, Matt Nieto.

As a supporting cast member of Colorado’s very successful 2019-20 campaign, Nieto will almost certainly receive a significant raise. He’ll also likely get a chance to prove that he is capable of a more significant role elsewhere.

At 27 years old, his 21 points in 70 games this season certainly won’t jump off the page. As a team that has needed scoring help for the better part of a decade, fans have become somewhat tired of hearing about defensively impactful assets up front. While his underlying numbers are certainly positive, they may not be enough to justify the four-year, $3.55 million AAV salary he is projected to receive according to Evolving Hockey.

Before we pick apart the contract value, let’s dive into the metrics he’s posted with the Avalanche and the usage context behind them. Over the past two seasons, he’s been relatively consistent in terms of xG rates, both for, and against.

It’s important to note that prior to arriving in Colorado, his xG metrics were routinely sub-par. That is sort of a red flag, considering just how deep the Avalanche forward group has been, and how well they would be able to shelter his matchups as a result. A counterpoint to that theory is the fact that he has been successful while carrying an OZS rate of just under 46-percent.

Considering the fact that he was in Colorado’s bottom-six, but still held a difficult zone-deployment ratio, the next logical step in the analysis is to examine his most common linemates. Interestingly enough, the player who he skated with the most, and also experienced the largest xG disparity without, is Pierre-Edouard Bellemare.

In 2019-20, Nieto spent roughly half of his five-on-five ice time with Bellemare. In 364:07 together, their xG rate was fantastic at 56.11-percent. Even more impressive was the fact that they accomplished that rate while only starting in the offensive zone about 42-percent of the time.

The surprising aspect of that duo is how badly Nieto struggled without Bellemare. Away from him, Nieto’s xG rate plummeted down to 45.67-percent in a very similar deployment setup. It’s not as though his other frequent linemates were awful expected-goal entities either, but the one we struggled most with was J.T. Compher.

Despite both Nieto and Compher being provably valuable defensive entities, they struggled badly as a duo. In 169:40 together they posted an xG rate of 38.50-percent. It’s worth noting that their usage was even more heavily defensive with a 38.93-percent OZS, but still, that lack of success is odd, given their respective skill sets.

The issue there might have been a lack of a real offensive transition entity to go along with them, considering that Nieto and Compher are both relatively average transition players (though Nieto is better overall).

All of this is somewhat irrelevant at the end of the day. If Nieto had remarkable underlying metrics, maybe a team out there could talk themselves into paying him $3.5 million-per-year, despite his pedestrian scoring numbers. Quite frankly, it’s tough to argue that he’s a better all-around asset than someone like Dominik Kahun, who the Sabres just balked at paying far less money than Nieto’s anticipated ask.

If his camp was to seek out something short-term in the neighborhood of $2-2.5 million, the signing would be more palatable, but on a team that is looking to conserve cap and make shrewd value additions (or so they say), he just isn’t a fit. It’s also, especially problematic since there is no sample size to examine how he’d fare in a top-six role, alongside more offensive counterparts.

Without being able to prove that he’d have the versatility to potentially move up the lineup and contribute more offense, the projected price tag is really tough to justify. We’ve already seen that the Sabres have no interest in overpaying (based on the Kahun situation), at least not for bottom-six caliber free-agent assets.

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Charting Hockey

Teammate Data and Advanced Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick