As more teams are eliminated from playoff contention, fans of the Buffalo Sabres have become growingly eager for what is sure to be an eventful offseason. While it certainly isn’t at the top of the agenda, many have speculated what Kevyn Adams will do (if anything) to address the team’s shortcomings between the pipes.

Many feel that the Sabres would be wise to pursue a proven veteran to split starts with Linus Ullmark next season. One of, if not the biggest name expected to hit the unrestricted free-agent market is 30-year-old, Braden Holtby.

The current Washington Capitals netminder turned himself into a household name after a very impressive start to his career. In 2015-16, his stellar campaign earned him a Vezina Trophy. In 2017-18, he helped lead the Capitals to the franchise’s first-ever Stanley Cup Victory (in what was actually a down year for him, statistically).

Sounds amazing, right? Unfortunately for Holtby, his performance has tapered off over the past few seasons, and 2019-20 was almost certainly his worst yet. In a contract year, posting a career-low .897 save-percentage isn’t what he or the Capitals expected.

Over the last two seasons, Holtby’s even-strength xGA/60 mark of 2.51 ranks 45^th among NHL netminders who played for at least 2,000 minutes (of which there are 50 total). His current salary of $6.1 million AAV on the other hand, ranks as the eighth-highest among his contemporaries.

Of the 42 goaltenders who played a minimum of 1,700 minutes in 2019-20 (42 total), only Matt Murray has a lower GSAx rate than Holtby’s mark of -22.74. That performance was so bad that it truly tanked his career GSAX average, which now stands a little above replacement-level.

Now, it is worth mentioning that the Capitals’ defense has performed below the league-average over the past three seasons. That being said, their xGA/60 mark of 2.61 this year was much better than their averages of 2.84, and 2.82 in 2018-19, and 2017-18, respectively.

Another point to be noted here is the high concentration of high-danger attempts the Washington defense tends to allow on a perennial basis. Pair that with Holtby’s high-danger save-percentage of .786 at even-strength this season, and it was a recipe for disaster. For comparison, his backup, Ilya Samsonov registered an HDSV% of .835 behind the very same defense.

In terms of Holtby’s contract projections on the open market, there are a lot of question-marks. In a year where several teams are shopping over-performing backups on the trade market, the market could be saturated, leading to lower interest in his services than one might expect.

Pair that issue with the fact that many teams will be operating under tighter internal budgets as a result of lost revenue from the COVID-19 pandemic, and it could force the eight-year veteran into a tough spot. Though he probably won’t be asked to take a real pay cut from his current salary, he may have to settle for a shorter-term contract.

Had he put up similar numbers to his 2015-16, or even his 2017-18 campaign, we might have been talking about a Sergei Bobrovsky type of UFA deal (well, maybe not that high). Instead, he fell flat and left some question-marks surrounding whether or not he’ll ever truly rebound. Still, he’s Braden Holtby. Someone will pay him, and it’ll likely be somewhere in the $6.5-7 million range.

Goaltenders are a relatively unpredictable, and fickle bunch. Even Bobrovsky (who was sensational the year before signing his seven-year, $70 million mega-deal with the Florida Panthers) saw a steep decline in performance this season. Handing a goalie that type of contract is always a risky proposition, but nothing about Bobrovsky’s metrics leading up to that point predicted such a steep regression.

That trend could go in the opposite direction as well. The key here is that it’s extremely difficult to do predictive analysis on the position as a whole. Bobrovsky is an excellent example of sporadic highs and lows throughout a career. His highs just came at the right time.

Unless Holtby would be open to a short-term “prove it” deal (which seems relatively unlikely), the Sabres should turn their sights elsewhere. While a household name would certainly peak fan interest, it’s too big a risk to take after what was a brutal showing this season.

As we’ve mentioned in several of our articles leading up to this – if Adams cannot find reinforcements in net via trade, there are safer, more cost-effective options via free-agency (albeit with lower-ceilings). Ullmark isn’t nearly enough of a hindrance to justify investing big money into the position.

If the cost-projections above are accurate (or close to it), Buffalo would be hard-pressed to afford such a deal anyway, even if Holtby’s recent performance had justified it. Regardless of the myths surrounding the team’s cap space, they need to be careful with how they address the many holes on their roster this offseason.

Goalie Metrics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

GSAx Charts courtesy of Charting Hockey