Dylan Cozens’ regression from his breakout season two years ago has been difficult to explain. There were some issues in his game while he was putting up 30 goals that you would have thought went away with age. Not only have they continued, but new ones have popped up over the last season and a half.

This is no longer a small sample of poor play that we can write off as development hiccups. 127 games and counting of performance nowhere near the level we saw during the 2022-23 campaign. He turns 24 in a few weeks and it may be time for the Buffalo Sabres to seriously consider cashing in on his value in the trade market.

Trending the Wrong Way

Almost any data point you look from raw production to advanced stats tells the story of a player that’s continuing to decline with no signs of recovery. Pick your public model of choice. The results are going to be similar. Hockeyviz’s model shows a concerning trend.

Evolving Hockey’s goals above replacement model has him in year three of a decline from his peak a few years ago.

His on-ice numbers at 5 on 5 are all down compared to two years ago from an offense perspective.

Season	5v5 GF/60	5v5 xGF/60
2022-23	3.20	3.07
2023-24	2.54	2.72
2024-25	2.69	2.33

The same can be said for the individual stats at 5 on 5.

Season	Goals per 60	Points per 60	Shot attempts per 60	Individual shot quality per 60
2022-23	1.32	2.54	14.68	1.09
2023-24	0.48	1.57	15.34	0.83
2024-25	0.87	1.83	12.35	0.60

What’s concerning for me is the shot attempts and individual shot quality reduction we’re seeing. He’s shooting the puck less and when he does it’s from poor locations. Last season it was easy to point to his 5% shooting percentage at 5 on 5 and chalk it up to bad luck. This year, he’s shooting over 12% at 5 on 5.

Cozens is shooting 2.75 goals above expected in Evolving Hockey’s model this season at 5 on 5. Compared to -5.75 during the previous campaign. Overall, in all situations, he’s at -2.5 goals scored above expected. That’s due to power play opportunities he was receiving in the first half of the season that he was unable to finish.

Even the microstat numbers from All Three Zones are showing a decline in areas that made him an effective offensive threat. He’s still good at entering the offensive zone with possession, but it’s no longer leading to scoring chances for the team.

This aligns with what I’m watching on a game-by-game basis. There’s hesitancy with the puck and he’s slow processing what’s happening. There are poor puck management decisions and turnovers consistently leading to killing plays that look like a threat is developing.

Role Reduction

Over the last month of the season, the Sabres have started to cut back on some of Cozens’ power play opportunities. He’s no longer on the first power play unit. Before the holiday break, he was getting 2:56 TOI per game on the power play. Since the break when they made adjustments, he’s down to 1:21 per game.

Lindy Ruff has rarely used him on the penalty kill this season. An area that he was a constant in the two years prior. He’s down to 50 seconds of penalty kill time on ice per game this season. He was 1:37 and 1:15 in the last two seasons respectively.

The interesting part is that his 5 on 5 minutes per game are the highest of his career this season. However, we’ve all witnessed Ruff have a difficult time finding a role for him in the lineup. He spent some time at wing, but that didn’t hold as an improvement on his play.

He saw time on the top line with Jason Zucker and Tage Thompson. Once again that was short-lived. Jiri Kulich has now jumped him in the pecking order as he has excelled in that role on the top line.

Trade Market

I understand that some people may be hesitant to give up on a player who isn’t 24 years old yet. This may be the perfect time for the Sabres to act on making this type of move. It provides a player with a new opportunity because it doesn’t appear there’s success to be found in this situation. The return should be valuable if there are truly as many teams calling as NHL insiders lead on to.

The other thing it accomplishes is shaking up a roster that isn’t meeting expectations. This team as constructed cannot lead this organization back to the postseason. There needs to be changes and a move like this could be the start of it.

According to Elliotte Friedman, the Sabres and Detroit Red Wings were close to a deal involving Cozens before the holiday roster freeze. I don’t know the exact details of that potential trade, but I do believe that Marco Kasper was a primary target of the Sabres in those discussions.

Those discussions are likely done or at the very least put on hold for now. The Red Wings had a coaching change and have been playing better over the last month. It does give us an idea, however, of what the Sabres may be looking for in return for the former top-10 pick.

Cozens has been tied to the Vancouver Canucks at times throughout the year in rumors as well as other teams. It appears the Sabres are open to the idea of moving Cozens. Now we wait to see if they pull the trigger on something or wait a little bit longer to see if there are signs of a turnaround.

The longer they wait to make this move it could come back to haunt them. If they feel that he won’t reach the potential they expected, there should be a move sooner rather than later. Don’t allow his value to potentially decrease with more underwhelming play.

Data via: Evolving Hockey, All Three Zones, Natural Stat Trick, and Hockeyviz

Photo Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig