Two weeks ago it seemed highly unlikely that the Rochester Amerks would be in the Calder Cup Playoffs this year. Thankfully, the Toronto Marlies failed to secure their spot and the Amerks did their part to win the game they had to win.

The Amerks will meet the Belleville Senators in the first round as fifth and sixth seeds in the North Division. The winner of the best of three series will go on to face the Utica Comets in the division semi-finals.

Series Dates

Game 1 – 5/4 @ ROC | 7 PM EST.

Game 2 – 5/6 @ BEL | 7 PM EST.

Game 3 (if necessary) – 5/8 @ BEL | 3 PM EST.

What to Watch

Snap the Streak

The Amerks go into this series looking to snap their long playoff losing streak. They haven’t won a playoff game since 2015 and haven’t won a series since 2005. There were a few well-known soon-to-be Sabres on that 2005 club.

Goaltending Matchup

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was injured in the final game of the season when he was run into and crashed into the post. He’ll miss at least the first round and may not be ready for the next round if the Amerks advance.

Update from Coach Appert: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s injury is not short-term — at least 1-2 weeks — so he’ll be out for the play-in series.

— Rochester Americans (@AmerksHockey) May 1, 2022

Therefore, Aaron Dell will be between the pipes for the Amerks in this series. The good news is that he has a good record against the Senators this season. He’s 3-0-0 with a .926 save percentage against them this year.

The Sens will counter with Filip Gustavsson in goal. He has been strong for Belleville down the stretch. Gustavsson was 4-0 with a .936 save percentage in his last four games. They also have 2019 second-round pick, Mads Sogaard, behind Gustavsson. He performed well in his first full pro season in North America in 35 appearances.

In a short three-game series, goaltending is a huge factor.

Future NHL Players

The Sabres assigned Mattias Samuelsson and Peyton Krebs to the Amerks to get some playoff experience. We’ll see if Samuelsson plays as he’s still dealing with the effects of an injury he suffered with the Sabres.

Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka will also get the all-important playoff experience. It’ll be interesting to see how they perform when the pressure increases. They’ll need to come up big for the Amerks if they want to have a chance to get out of this round.

The Senators’ roster features a few high-end prospects of their own. Lassi Thomson, a first-round pick in 2019, is their big future NHL player on the blue line. However, he’s not the only former first-round pick in that defense group. Jacob Bernard-Docker is from Ottawa’s 2018 draft class.

They’ve recently had their forward group by the addition of 2019 fourth-rounder Viktor Lodin. He played most of this season in the SHL for Timra IK. In his 10 AHL games, he has produced five goals and eight points.

Roby Jarventie is the other young forward out of the 2020 draft class. He has had a good first pro season in the AHL with 33 points in 70 games.

Series Prediction

The Amerks have the talent to get by the Senators in this series. I feel that it’s critical for them to get Game 1 if they want to move on. This team hasn’t given up all season after dealing with injuries and long-shot playoff odds. So they’re going to give it their all.

They’re also nearly fully healthy from a skater’s perspective. Brandon Davidson could play in this series after missing most of the year. Samuelsson is the only other question mark.

Prediction: Amerks win the series 2-1

Photo Credit: Rochester Amerks/Facebook