For the first time in years, fans of the Buffalo Sabres have reached a relative consensus. There are no real arguments about whether or not the 2021-22 roster is playoff-caliber. There is no dissension about where the team will land in the Atlantic Division. Everyone knows what is about to happen.

In a way, understanding that the Sabres will be a bad team right off the bat is relaxing. There are no expectations on a macro level, and everyone will be primarily focused on individual player development.

Still, it’s fun to make predictions. For that reason, I called my shots on a handful of basic categories, as well as a few fun twists as we embark on what will hopefully be at least an interesting season of Sabres hockey.

Record

Prediction: 31-43-8 (70 Points)

Strangely, my standing points prognosis probably leans a bit optimistic. I’ve earned a bit of a reputation as a Sabres Twitter scrooge in this regard, but I don’t see this roster performing as poorly as the original “tank team” circa 2014-15.

There’s not a lot to dive into here, so I’ll keep it simple. The defensive corps looks at least as good, and probably better than last season. While there is zero depth to speak of upfront, there are some young exciting pieces who haven’t had their spirits crushed yet.

Overall, I expect some fun hockey with a few wins sprinkled in.

Leading Scorer

Prediction: Casey Mittelstadt (51 Points)

This pick may come as a surprise to some, but it really shouldn’t. Mittelstadt is penciled in as the team’s top-line center, and he is currently skating with two of the best wingers on the team in Jeff Skinner and Vinnie Hinostroza (if practice lines are to be trusted).

On top of the fact that he’ll see a lot of ice time at even-strength, there is an expectation that the soon-to-be 23-year-old will consistently serve on the team’s top power-play unit this season. That will result in a boost to his base scoring totals, and it’s ultimately why I feel he will be the Sabres’ leading scorer in 2021-22.

If his trajectory from last season is a sign of things to come, he’s experiencing an xGAR upswing, particularly in his offensive impacts. I for one expect that to continue and result in increases to his counting stats.

Leading Goal Scorer

Prediction: Jeff Skinner (22 Goals)

After struggling mightily as a finisher the last two seasons, this pick wasn’t as much of an immediate slam-dunk for me. Then I remembered that the Sabres have nothing on the roster in terms of bonafide goal-scoring talent and immediately felt more comfortable with this choice.

As mentioned above, Skinner has strong linemates, and he won’t have to worry about spending time in the press box with Don Granato setting the lineup. Like Mittelstadt, he’s likely to see a lot of power-play time as well. Even if he improves a little bit as a finisher, it will go a long way. He could realistically end up being the Sabres’ lone 20-goal scorer this year.

Again, the disparity between Skinner’s expected numbers and actual production has been significant since he received his contract extension in Buffalo. I’m banking on a positive regression to his career norms, which is a risky proposition to be sure.

The only other player I considered here was Victor Olofsson, but given his lack of five-on-five production (and stale power-play production sans Eichel last season), I opted for the player with a more “proven” track record.

Team MVP

Prediction: Rasmus Dahlin

I considered Dahlin over Mittelstadt as the team’s leading point-scorer but ultimately thought better of it. That said, this is a massive year for him as he will serve as the team’s undisputed top defenseman.

Granato is going to lean on Dahlin and his defensive partner (who will be Henri Jokiharju, at least to start the year) a lot. The second-year coach will also facilitate Dahlin’s strongest quality, which is his proclivity for contributing to the offensive rush.

Perhaps more than any other player on the team, the pressure is on Dahlin to realize his draft potential this year. Following an excellent rookie campaign under Phil Housley, Dahlin regressed to a degree with Ralph Krueger behind the bench. There are no built-in excuses this season. It’s time to see what he’s made of, and I expect that he’ll rise to the occasion.

Rookie of the Year

Prediction: Arttu Ruotsalainen

Although the options for this category are extraordinarily limited, I decided to keep it as part of the article. Players like Dylan Cozens, Jacob Bryson, and Rasmus Asplund all have too many NHL games under their belts to qualify as rookies by league standards.

The only realistic players that even fit the “rookie” criteria are Ruotsalainen, Mattias Samuelsson, J.J. Peterka, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Samuelsson is injured, and likely Rochester-bound once he recovers. Peterka has already been sent down to start the season, and the organization might be reluctant to burn a year off his ELC in a rebuilding year.

That leaves Luukkonen, who is also starting the season in the AHL following a lackluster preseason showing with the big club. Other than that, there are no threats to Ruotsalainen’s bid here so, he’s the choice by default.

xGF/60 Leaders

Forward Prediction: Casey Mittelstadt

Defenseman Prediction: Rasmus Dahlin

I decided to break this down into two winners – one at forward, and one on defense. Upfront, Mittelstadt thrived offensively in what was a bounce-back year of sorts in 2020-21. As noted above, he’ll see a lot of ice time, and given his linemates, likely a high OZS rate.

Last season, the Sabres experienced a significant xGF reduction when he wasn’t on the ice. For a team that spent half the season playing a very defensive style of hockey, he ranked fourth on the team with an xGF/60 rate of 2.30 overall and was weirdly second behind Taylor Hall in this regard under Krueger (xGF/60 rate of 2.41).

On the blue line, Dahlin was the obvious choice. He’ll see deployment in a myriad of different scenarios, but if he is allowed to contribute as we expect offensively, there are no other offensively-inclined defensemen to contend with him here.

Unless a player like Jacob Bryson (who boasts some offensive acumen as well) receives extremely sheltered QoC rates all year, Dahlin should run away with this one.

xGA/60 Leaders

Forward Prediction: Anders Bjork

Defenseman Prediction: Mark Pysyk

Like the xGF/60 rankings, I wanted to award a forward and a defenseman separately. Upfront, I chose Bjork for a few reasons. For one, he was one of the Sabres’ top defensive impact forwards under Granato to close out the 2020-21 season (xGA/60 rate of 2.14 through 15 games). Only Drake Caggiula put up better xGA numbers in that span.

While players like Rasmus Asplund and Zemgus Girgensons are better defensive entities, there are factors weighted against them. Girgensons is likely to the fact a disproportionate amount of zone starts in his end, and with Cody Eakin and Kyle Okposo as his linemates to kick-off the year, the odds are already stacked against him. Asplund is serving on a line with Tage Thompson (a notoriously dismal defensive entity) as his centerman.

Defensively, the choice was a bit more difficult. Relative to his teammates last season, Pysyk was the top xGA player on the Dallas Stars’ blue line (the top xGA team in the NHL in 2020-21). As a veteran who has played with three different organizations, he’s been relatively consistent in this area.

Of the 171 NHL defensemen to play at least 3,000 minutes since 2017, Pysyk ranks 15^th overall in relative xGA-60 rate (-0.14) between his time with the Stars and Florida Panthers. Hilariously, his pairing-mate to start the year is likely to be Robert Hagg, who had the second-worst mark (0.24) in the league under the same criteria.

That’s the only thing working against Pysyk here, but defensive tandems get switched around a lot, so I decided to go with history here.

Corsi Differential Leader

Prediction: Henri Jokiharju

This one was a little strange to try and project. Although he ranked only third among Buffalo defensemen with a poor Corsi rate of 46.18% last season, I think we’ll see an improvement. If he sticks with Dahlin as his partner for the majority of the year, that mere association should result in a positive on-ice impact in this regard, assuming they get a lot of offensive opportunities.

I’m going against the analytical trends here, and gamble with my gut. We’ll see if the math makes me look foolish, but on a team like the 2021-22 Sabres, there are very few players who would surprise me as the team’s leading Corsi leader at the end of the year.

Biggest Surprise (In a Good Way)

Prediction: Vinnie Hinostroza

This category is fun because there are a lot of players who could reasonably fit the bill. I picked Hinostroza because I wrote about him two offseasons ago as a cost-effective UFA option, and I was happy to see Kevyn Adams pursue him on a bargain deal this summer.

Vinnie Hinostroza gets a gritty goal in front 👊

We're up 2-0! #LetsGoBuffalo pic.twitter.com/w3MHsjBov5

— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) October 5, 2021

Following a strong preseason, my initial assessment looks to have been pretty accurate. There is a strong argument to be made that he was the Sabres’ best player in preseason action. The coaching staff feels the same way, as he is currently slated to serve as the right-wing on the de facto top forward line.

While he’s very likely to end up being traded at the deadline (assuming he puts up decent offensive numbers leading up to it), I expect him to be a rare veteran bright spot regularly.

Amerks MVP

Prediction: John-Jason Peterka

This might sound like a safe and easy bet, but Peterka is going to have some competition here. There’s also no guarantee he stays in the AHL for the majority of the year, which is another possibility that needs to be considered.

I don’t see Buffalo spending a year on his ELC, and expect him in Rochester for most of the 2021-22 campaign. Other players who could contend with him as the Amerks’ MVP are AHL veterans like Brett Murray, Oskari Laaksonen, Jimmy Schuldt, and even Luukkonen between the pipes.

At the end of the day, I went with offensive potential, and if the preseason was any indication of where he’s at in his development, Peterka should make an immediate scoring impact on the farm.

First Player Not Named Eichel to be Traded

Prediction: Colin Miller

This one is just for fun, because why not? Jack Eichel is the clubhouse favorite to be traded first. On a team with 10 pending UFA’s on the books, there is a wide range of players who could be dealt in-season.

Since he’s been involved in trade rumors dating back to the beginning of last year, I went with Miller here. There’s also the fact that Samuelsson, Schuldt, and Laaksonen could all push for playing time on the right side of the defense (I know Samuelsson is a lefty by trade, but the point stands).

Jokiharju isn’t going anywhere, and Pysyk is the superior player (not to mention a newly acquired veteran entity). Should one of the youngsters start strong in Rochester, Miller could very well end up as the odd-man-out on the back end.

Charts courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockeyviz, and JFresh Hockey

Advanced Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit: Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images