I rolled my eyes at myself writing out that headline. It’s the truth though. The next 10 games on the Buffalo Sabres schedule are an opportunity for them to try to salvage this season.

Here is who they play in their next 10 matchups: CBJ @OTT @MTL @PIT SEA OTT VAN SJ CHI TBL.

Now or Never

In that stretch, only one game is a back-to-back. That’s against the Senators this weekend on New Year’s Eve. They only play one team that is in a playoff spot entering tonight (Vancouver Canucks) and seven of the 10 games are on home ice. That includes a six-game homestand.

The catch here is realistically the Sabres need to get at least 16 of the next 20 points on the board to get themselves into a position where they can be taken seriously in a playoff race. That would mean they’d need a record of something close to 7-1-2 in this window.

It’s laughable right now to think this team can achieve that. They haven’t won two in a row since November 1st. It’ll be 60 days between back-to-back wins if they take both games this weekend. Some of the worst teams in hockey run into a three or four-game winning streak throughout a season. Having not won back-to-back in two months is embarrassing.

Nonetheless, this is their final real opportunity. If they can pull out 16 points in this stretch, that would give them 48 points through 46 games. That would be three points off their pace from last season when they had 51 points through 46 contests.

That would only put them on pace for 82 points if they pulled this record off over the next 10 games. That’s how big the hole is they dug from themselves. To reach 94 points, they’d need to get 48 of the remaining 72 games in the final 36 games of the season, or 66%.

Hope

As Morgan Freeman said in Shawshank Redemption, “Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.”

There are a few things here in all of this that we can try to pull some belief that things will start to turn around. First and foremost, the roster is the healthiest it has been since opening night. It has only been a few games. However, they looked good against the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers with everyone back besides Zemgus Girgensons. Of course, we can’t overlook the 9-4 humiliation at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets before those two games.

In Evolving Hockey’s model, the Sabres are trending upward in a few areas. Their 5 on 5 expected goal share is trending up on a 10-game rolling average.

Perhaps more importantly, their shooting percentage is headed in the right direction at 5 on 5. This team performs at its best when they’re finishing at a high level.

There’s no reason to think they can pull off a run. The inconsistency is maddening and at nearly the halfway point of the season, this is who they are. On the flip side, hopefully, they surprise us all and at the very least keep interest up early in 2024.

Data via: Evolving Hockey

Photo Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports