(Yes, I started writing this last night, which yes was before the team did waive Mason Geertsen, but as you’ll see, this wasn’t just a today decision)

Yesterday, Chad wrote how the returns of Zach Benson and Jason Zucker will mean that two roster spots need to be opened up to get them back into the lineup, which could happen as early as tomorrow.

If it is a waiver-exemption-based decision, Isak Rosen and Noah Ostlund (this was a sentence written before Geertsen was waived, so now it would be an ‘or’) will be suiting up to face the Bridgeport Islanders tomorrow instead of the Chicago Blackhawks.

And while both players have played well (I won’t re-print their charts since they were in here yesterday), after the 6-2 loss yesterday to the Calgary Flames, there’s one more day removed from good vibes to justify it “being time” for them to go back down until the next injury (…sigh…).

But this would only be a temporary “easy decision”. Josh Norris’s return, whenever it is, will mean that unless another forward gets injured or sick, someone is going to have to be waived. And that, friends, is why this deserves a second consecutive day of content.

Josh Dunne is probably the next to be sent back. But then what happens if Justin Danforth starts ramping back up soon? And aren’t these guys playing well enough to crack the lineup still?

Needless to say, this roster crossroads isn’t a blip, it’s a feature.

Whether anyone cares to admit it, the Sabres are rolling with the equivalent of two checking lines worth of forwards right now to obviously mixed results, which is also why it shouldn’t be surprising that it takes either powerplay goals or secondary scoring to get the wins that they have, and those things have left plenty to be desired on their own.

Trust

When Tyson Kozak returned from injury, Lindy Ruff spoke about how he trusts the 22 year old as a matchup player against any line. While Kozak’s shot quantity differential (per natural stat trick) stands at 42.55% this year, his shot quality share sits at 53.95%, so he certainly is showing positively on defensive impacts. And as you’ll see a little further down, he appears to be deserving of keeping his roster spot even as the rest of the team gets healthy.

Unfortunately, last night he was on the ice for 5 shot attempts for but 22 against in the third most forward minutes last night. The line he played 10 minutes Only two of the 13 faceoffs they were on the ice for took place in the offensive zone.

Ah.

The majority of the team struggled last night, but with Peyton Krebs playing 3 full more 5v5 minutes than any other forward last night, while there aren’t headline quotes about it, the coaching staff is showing with their actions how much they trust Jordan Greenway and him (and this trend has extended for most of the month).

In many of the games so far this season, the line of Krebs, Beck Malenstyn, and Josh Dunne have gotten starts with the intention of creating energy to begin games.

Malenstyn did have a good game last night, but the greater point here feels like the embodiment of their mantra of being harder to play against being a sacrifice of offense. And in games where your matchup line is getting dominated, that’s an immediate place behind the 8 ball most nights.

And if these are the trust guys, it means that other guys might play better and still end up back in the minors.

No End in Sight

As far as the public community has gathered, the front office and coaching staff’s contracts are all expiring at the end of the year. From what we’ve also gathered, a lot of the players that have been brought in the last couple of seasons have had heavy influence from the aspirations of the coaching staff.

So then why were so many two year contracts signed this calendar year?

From Jason Zucker and Jordan Greenway getting between $4M and $5M a year for two years, to the RFA bridges for Bo Byram ($6.25M AAV) and Jack Quinn ($3.38M AAV), no matter how this season plays out, all of those players are going to have roster spots next season. Other than Alex Tuch, Beck Malenstyn and Josh Dunne are the only two forwards who are pending UFAs, and we know how Malenstyn is a Seth Appert favorite.

We know that they still want to sign Tuch, but they also have RFA decisions to make for Zach Benson, Isak Rosen, Peyton Krebs, Josh Doan, and Michael Kesselring with the latter three being arbitration eligible. Those 4 two year contracts take up $24.63M in salary cap alone. Not to mention that Connor Timmins and Justin Danforth also signed two year deals.

If the staff has just this year remaining on their deals, but all this non-core money is in place for next season, what is the plan here? Did they think that the summer changes made them a no-doubter playoff team that would get the staff all extensions from ending the drought? Did they not account for the possibilities of at least some injuries? Are they also going to get next year because of the injuries? Does that mean they really only needed to have a better point total than last year to show growth, playoffs or not?

If they do trade Alex Tuch, who will it be for? A roster player? Tough to think that money in money out will give a similarly strong player to Tuch given his very VERY friendly $4.75M cap hit this year. Does another roster layer mean that we only see Isak Rosen and Noah Ostlund (and even Konsta Helenius) this year in Buffalo if there are more injuries? If it’s a sell off for futures, will that replacement in the lineup have their spot next year when Jiri Kulich is (hopefully) recovered from his blood clotting?

And as Chad mentioned on socials today, isn’t it a bad look neither goalie [they] anticipated playing are getting the majority of starts in the middle of November? To add to that, the guy who is atop the depth chart right now not only is making his first starts in the league but was also only here because Devon Levi was still not ready and Alex Georgiev (who has only played two games with the Amerks) didn’t make it out of the preseason as a viable short term UPL stand in?

The playoff aspirations in the short and long term future with this roster construction is diminishing at an accelerated rate. They could trade Bo Byram or Jack Quinn, but those potential returns are also diminishing.

There was a lot of talk last night about the team playing soft and mentally either being too high on themselves or too quick to unravel when adversity strikes, as has been the theme for, what, a decade? It’s hard to imagine we’ll every hear names called out in that context, but it sure does seem like they all are going to be around next year too unless the organization kicks off a true rebuild.

Under all of these circumstances outlined, it seems like linear growth is going to be the only thing that gets them out of the basement this year, but is it too late? I guess we’ll see, but that will also mean the best roster needs to be fielded game in and game out.

(Data viz from HockeyViz and Evolving Hockey)

(Photo Credit: Calgary Flames)