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72 Thoughts on the Sabres and the 2022 NHL Draft

by Austin - 0

This will be my second-to-last pre-draft article for Expected Buffalo. There are a million things I talk to y’all about, so instead of a bunch of mini-articles: going to do it with one large brain dump.

1.) I’m not going to be doing any sort of meltdown when the Sabres select a player throughout this draft. There are a few players I’m lower on than consensus, but I can admit that it’s a preference pick for most of them. However, there is one player I don’t want the Sabres to draft and that is the USHL Defenseman of the Year this past year.

2.) After my last article I feel like I’ve become the Brad Lambert stan on Sabres Twitter. While I will 100% be taking Lambert if he’s available and Wright/Cooley/Jiricek are not: I don’t think passing on him for another player is a terrible mistake by the Sabres. I would be jumping for joy if the Sabres took any of Matthew Savoie, Frank Nazar, or Jonathan Lekkerimaki with the 9th pick. I’d give a golf clap if we took Liam Ohgren, Joakim Kemell, or Denton Mateychuk with that pick as well.

3.) That all being said: I want to expand a little bit on the Josh Allen v. Josh Rosen comparison I’ve been making when talking about Brad Lambert v. Marco Kasper. First, I’m talking about the pre-draft conversations on Twitter and media conversations from Bills fans/media. I’m NOT talking about the outcomes of their careers so far. I see the comparison with Josh Allen and Brad Lambert on the merits that their production and microstats don’t showcase just how great their physical tools are compared to their draft competition. That is all. I view Marco Kasper and Josh Rosen in the same vein in that they played in the right leagues, had the right roles, and most people would consider them to be the safer at the early draft pick given who is still available.

4.) Let’s talk a little about Marco Kasper. I think it’s pretty self-evident what there is to like about Marco Kasper and I think we can talk about a little bit of the offensive potential. Take the clip below. Kasper is #24 in red and this is right off the opening faceoff. Talk about becoming a fan favorite in the first six seconds of a game.

He is extremely hard on pucks and has a high-end motor which is something I love in a player. Kasper’s offensive is generated a lot from being in the midst of a chain-link play or by using his great off-puck positioning and motor to get to loose pucks and rebounds like the play below.

I think when we talk about his skill I would say he’s very good at making the conservative play. He can move pucks around the ice in a productive fashion and keep the cycle alive in the offensive zone by facilitating it below the goal line or back to the point. I want to talk about the clip below because I think it best illustrates how I scout and it may seem like such a simple play to too many people.

Kasper gets the puck in transition around the three-second mark on the right half-wall. I like that he gets his head up immediately to scan and assess what is going on in the breakout. I encourage you to stop it at the 3-4 second mark and assess his options. His decision within a second of receiving the pass is what gives me optimism about his skill. Most players his age will make one of two decisions: fire the puck to the forward covered in the neutral zone or fire the pass cross-ice to the parallel player. Kasper regroups with a nice little move back to the middle of the ice to get away from the forecheck of #9 and then hits a player for an easily controlled exit and entry.

That’s not to say I don’t have my concerns. He can hold onto the puck a bit too long and his passes when he doesn’t pre-scan are problematic. Below is the most egregious play he made in this game.

Overall, a lot to like about Kasper, and a sure-fire first-round pick. It’s really what you see from the skill level perspective that will define just how high he goes

5.) I gave you all the players I’m hoping for at each draft position. In a previous number, I gave you my hopes for pick #9. Let me give you who I’m hoping for in general.

For pick #16

6.) Denton Mateychuk: I just love the way he plays. Mitch Brown’s highlight reel he posted yesterday says more than I ever could

7.) Noah Ostlund: while I like the upside of Trikozov/Mesar more I feel like both would be available at 28 and 41. Take a shot on one of my favorite players to watch this past year. The transition engine for the Djurgarden trio, is deceptive in the neutral zone, and has amazing playmaking skills; Ostlund gets another step after gaining some strength and I feel like he could be a top 6 center.

For Pick 28

8.) Filip Mesar: A fluid skater who is among one of the smartest draft-eligible forwards in the entire draft. He’s poised to break out next season as his speed and skill and ability to move pucks are going to translate so well to put up points, especially in the men’s league he’s in (#10 in white in this clip).

9.) Isaac Howard: Howard has speed, and skill, and in the offensive zone is great off the puck to get into areas to score goals. However, there are times his approach in transition is narrow-minded and results in turnovers and his passing decisions can come across as forced. His spacing off the puck in transition can get too clustered and he won’t adapt to changing situations. However, bet on his skill and speed and that his offensive zone intelligence can translate across the other two zones.

10.) Sam Rinzel: The 6’4, right-handed defenseman is going to go sometime in the late first or early second round. His size and skating are attractive, but it’s his offensive ability, especially his puck skill and passing acumen that is going to make him jump up above players like Noah Warren and Maveric Lamoureux.

Second Round Picks

11.) David Goyette: Super slippery with the puck on his stick, a high-end motor, especially in the offensive end. Has a lot of speed, and skill, and always finds ways to get into areas of the ice that I didn’t see a rush lane or move to get there. Played center at the OHL level and I’d project him there for the NHL level as well

12.) Elias Salomonsson: A bit of a dark horse pick. Coming into the 2022 draft year the right-handed defenseman was being hyped as a potential top 10 pick. His game, according to multiple sources, took a nose dive to start the year. He was a high-octane offensive defenseman last year and this year seemed to be adverse to taking any sort of risk or activating off the blue line. As the season progressed he flashed what made him so tantalizing at the beginning of the season. The August birthdate Salomonsson would be a great swing to make if the Sabres strike out on the right-handed defensemen they’re targeting earlier in the draft.

13.) Owen Beck: I mentioned him on the podcast with Chad, but I think if you’re chasing a Kasper and don’t get him then a player like Beck (or Filip Bystedt) would be very good consolation prizes. I think Beck has a lot more offense in him than his counting stats give him credit for, and he never tries to exit/enter a zone without control of the puck. Huge fan of Beck’s game and think he could be a staple on the third line especially given his defensive prowess and excellent faceoff ability.

For the mid-rounds (Rounds 3-5)

14.) Quinn Finley: USHL forward who grew on me as the season wore on. He had an injury mid-year but came back strong. He’s physically underdeveloped, but his skill and speed are top-6 ceiling potential. Going to the University of Wisconsin.

15.) Michael Fisher: This right-handed defenseman played high school prep hockey in New England this past year. I watched more games of his on LiveBarn than I did on InStat which should tell you the level of his competition. However, he has size, very good speed, and showed some great skill. He was able to get away with too much at the high school level so I’d have liked to see him get a couple of USHL games in to have a firm grasp of his level of ability. A good mid-round swing to make.

16.) Ryan Healey: Another right-handed defenseman I wanted to talk about. His point production doesn’t tell his story in the USHL. A really good passer, and has a lot of skill to transport the puck. I think he’s one of the sleepers in the mid-rounds when chasing another defenseman for the prospect pool.

The Late Rounds (6th-7th Rounds)

17.) Zam Plante: I love Zam Plante’s skill. I feel like a Jackson Blake type of DY+1 year is in the works for him. After coming back from finishing up his high school hockey season; I thought Plante looked like a way more confident playmaker on the Steele. Excited to see where this late birthday prospect lands in the draft.

18.) Colin Kessler: The high school prep center was super impressive in the MacPhearson tournament here in Buffalo. He made St. Andrew’s and Matthew Morden’s team look, real pedestrian. He was the focal point of Stattuck’s defensive strategy. He scored 20 more points than his nearest teammate and 40 more than the third closest teammate. Going to play in the USHL next year for defending champions Sioux City: I expect him to turn a lot of heads next year if he’s not drafted this year.

Dr. Tee’s 5 Players You Should Know About (aka my 12-year-old tells you who he likes the most in the draft)

19.) Vinzenz Rohrer

20.) Bryce McConnell-Barker

21.) Cameron Lund

22.) Sam Rinzel

23.) Christian Kyrou

24.) Dr. Tee’s One Player He’s Going to Yell at GMKA if He Doesn’t Draft: Beau Jelsma

If I had to compare NHL Draft Eligible Players to their Disney Might Ducks Player Comparables

25.) Dwayne Robertson: Brad Lambert. If Dwayne Robertson chugged four Red Bulls before going out on the ice that would be Brad Lambert.

26.) Charlie Conway at the end of D3: Marco Kasper. Just an all-heart guy who you can 100% see committing to defense.

27.) Fulton Reed: Maveric Lamoureux. Big, skating has come a long way, tries to put people through walls, and has about the same consistency at hitting the net with a slap shot.

28.) Dean Portman: Lian Bischsel. Have you seen Lian Bichsel? Like Dean Portman, he’s going to put you through the glass, and also, there is no way he’s 17-18 years old. He looks like a physically developed 22-year-old.

29.) Adam Banks: Shane Wright. The cake eater is the best player on the team, but when you ask any fan of the franchise they always say someone else is the best player. They’re not. It’s Adam Banks. Stop trying to make Guy Germaine a thing.

30.) Guy Germaine: Juraj Slafkovsky. He’s got the personality to win over the media, people like to reference all of his stats when compared to Banks for best player, but is he the best player on the Ducks?

31.) Lester Averman: Joakim Kemell. Averman is good, is integral in all three movies, and yet, no one wants to pick him as their favorite Mighty Duck player. Kemell is very similar: he’s going in the top 10 but almost no one views him as the sexy pick that they’d take first.

32.) Julie “The Cat” Gaffney: Hugo Havelid. Gaffney should’ve had the net in D2 from the very beginning if not from a stupid sense of loyalty or sexism by Bombay. Havelid should be the first goalie selected in this draft but he’s 5’10. Go watch the gold medal game in the u18s and tell me why he shouldn’t be picked.

My Guess of What the Sabres Draft Will Look Like

33.) Pick 9: Jonathan Lekkerimaki, RW, J20 Nationell

34.) Pick 16: Danila Yurov, RW, KHL

35.) Pick 28: Sam Rinzel, RHD, HS-Prep/USHL

36.) Pick 41: Own Beck, C, OHL

37.) Pick 74: Quinn Finley, C, USHL

38.) Pick 106: Adam Engstrom, LHD, J20 Nationell

39.) Pick 134: George Fegaras, RHD, OJHL

40.) Pick 170: Connor Kurth*, RW, USHL

41.) Pick 187: Alexis Gendron, C, QMJHL

42.) Pick 202: Luca Di Pasquo, G, NAHL

43.) Pick 211: Lukas Gustafsson*, LHD, USHL

“Give me 5 players who will hit people and are big!”

44.) Noah Warren, RHD, QMJHL

45.) Maveric Lamoureux, RHD, QMJHL

46.) Jackson Dorrington, LHD, USHL

47.) Lian Bichsel, LHD, SHL

48.) Nathan Gaucher, C, QMJHL

“Give me the 5 most fun players to watch outside the first round this year”

49.) Lane Hutson, LHD, USNTDP

50.) Zach Bookman**, RHD, AJHL

51.) Roenick Jodoin, LW, OHL

52.) Denton Mateychuk, LHD, WHL

53.) Cameron Lund, C, USHL

5 Players I haven’t Mentioned with Fun Upside

54.) Jagger Firkus, W, WHL: his offensive zone skill is ridiculous.

55.) Mats Lindgren, LHD, WHL: his offensive game is on par with the first round defenseman. It’s consistency and being a better defender. Late birthday…he’s a fun one to bet on.

56.) Christian Kyrou, RHD, OHL: One of the best skill-sets in the class for an offensive defenseman. However, needs to significantly improve his skating to even play at an NHL-level pace.

57.) Hunter Haight, C, OHL: If you’re a person who wants to bet on a skillset with little tangible production: Hunter Haight is your prospect in 2022. At best you’re getting Matthew Knies type of development from 2021, but also he could never become a player worthy of a contract.

58.) Kevin Korchinski, LHD, WHL: He could end up being the best defender in the class. Came on the last part of the season and in the playoffs.

Parting thoughts

59.) I would be shocked if the Sabres didn’t use a few of these draft picks to trade up or to acquire a roster player. The NHL roster seems to be pretty full outside of RHD and, while they could use some depth in the defensive group, there isn’t a glaring need to stack the cupboards. Should be a fun two days.

60.) I’m not going to comment on the 2023 draft class. The biggest reason is that the 2022 draft class, at least at the top, looked to be so much more promising compared to how it’s finished out. People are going to talk incessantly about the 2023 draft class and how amazing it is over the next few weeks when talking about trades or comparing 2022 to 2023. I’m going to hold out on saying anything definitive until after the Hlinka.

61.) The draft is important for the Sabres, but getting the goalie situation will play a bigger part in their success compared to who they take in the first 3 rounds here. Get a couple of high-end pieces to place into this already developing roster and I think we’re moving in the right direction.

62.) This is the draft of the offensive defenseman. Swing hard on them and I think we’ll be rewarded.

63.) The Ivan Fedotov story in Russia right now needs to be taken seriously.

64.) The more I scout…the less I care about handedness for defensemen. Truthfully, if Mateychuk/Korchinski is available at 16, I’d take them and laugh at how ridiculous our defensive core is.

65.) I think the most hilarious draft pick would be the Islanders taking Brad Lambert or Montreal taking Jack Hughes. Nepotism ruining franchises screams peak NHL.

66.) I wouldn’t be shocked to see someone other than Shane Wright’s name called first overall on Thursday night. However, I also think it’s weird to celebrate that Wright would be bumped out of the first pick. I think he’s earned it, but I also think I could logically argue for him falling all the way down to 5th overall.

67.) Does Victor Olofsson get traded on draft night? I think that would be the biggest move/shock that could happen.

68.) I think Ryan Johnson signs with Buffalo after this weekend. I just don’t see a scenario where Brock Faber gets moved out of LAK and that’s good for him. I thought for sure he was planning on going back to California with Faber.

69.) Nice.

70.) I think the Sabres draft 9 players. I think they draft 5 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goalie. I think the first-round picks are two forwards and one defenseman. I think they trade up from 28 to pick Mateychuk.

71.) Reminder: DO NOT DRAFT THE USHL DEFENSEMAN OF THE YEAR.

72.) Long Live the Pterodactyl.

Photo Credit: Mike Mulholland/Getty Images
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