To no one’s surprise, the Sabres stayed at the 11th overall pick after the draft lottery. While I’ll post my rankings sometime next weekend and then we’ll begin the countdown to the NHL Draft in late June; I’ll offer a very early Mock Draft to give some perspective of who could be available for the Sabres.

1.) San Jose: Macklin Celebrini, C, NCAA (Boston University)

While I think there should be some debate between Celebrini and the player going at number two in this mock draft regarding who San Jose should take; Celebrini should end up as the number one pick. Celebrini has been talked about a top draft pick since his early days at Shattuck-St. Mary’s and his continued development to become a high-end, two-way center cements his draft position. While I can’t critique his game too harshly in any one area, his one blemish might be that he doesn’t have that one game breaking trait that is often associated with forwards who go first in the NHL draft. He’s going to wear you down through his great anticipation, spatial awareness, very good puck skill and shot, and hard-nosed, puck pressuring defense.

2.) Chicago: Ivan Demidov, W, SKA-St. Petersburg (MHL)

Demidov has been, by far, the most fun player I’ve watched during this draft season. He’s an electrifying offensive talent who can create for himself and others and transition the puck with ease in the MHL. His puck skill and creativity will get you out of your seat a few times a game and it’s hard to watch him the MHL and not wish he was playing tougher competition as he destroyed opposing defenses whenever he was on the ice. Chicago shouldn’t overthink this pick, and just think of the combination of being able to put Bedard/Demidov on the ice and watch opposing teams go into the spin cycle.

3.) Anaheim: Artyom Levshunov, RHD, NCAA (Michigan State University)

Anaheim hit on Pavel Mintyukov and has Olen Zellweger waiting in the wings on the left side of the defense, but are relatively thin in the prospect pool and without any high impact right-handed defensemen in the NHL. Levshunov was an aggressive, offensive defenseman in the NCAA this past year who showcased the ability to use deception to move off the blue line and past an oncoming defender, while also being a highly activating defenseman as well. At times, especially early in the season, he activated a bit too much and was caught way too low in the offensive zone. However, as the season progressed, he showed maturity and his recklessness softened to where I see him a very projectable power-play, offensive minded defenseman who defends well enough that he could develop into a top pairing defenseman.

4.) Columbus: Cayden Lindstrom, C, WHL (Medicine Hat)

Lindstrom is the epitome of betting on upside. At 6’4 pivot with puck skills of a smaller player while also having very good north/south speed and edges to get around players laterally. In my micro-stat profile he hits the big three checkboxes for a top end player with his qualitative skills: >40% offensive transition involvement, >20% of passes to dangerous areas and >3.5 dangerous shots a game. The caveat being: he’s at the low end of all those benchmarks. Plenty of room to improve, but not dominating games like some others in the dataset.

5.) Montreal: Cole Eiserman, W, USNTDP

Cole Eiserman is the equivalent of a basketball point guard who scores 34 points a game and averages 3 assists. It’s hard to watch Eiserman and not make the analogy of the best player on in a pick-up basketball game who only looks to score and when he does look to pass, it’s often because he couldn’t get his shot off. Eiserman has the skill and shot of a top 5 player, but too often he wants to do too much on his own stick and can’t make the the opportune pass at the appropriate time. His dataset looks pretty similar to Tij Iginla’s, but Iginla completes far more of his dangerous passes than Eiserman. So why does Eiserman rise so high? Recently bias. Eiserman went on a tear in the u18s and surpassed Caufield as the all time goal scorer in the NTDP history. Eiserman has the ability to fill the net with pucks but, in my opinion, there’s a reason why he was moved off the Hagans/Stiga line earlier in the year. He has to learn to use his teammates to create chances instead of using them as a last resort if he can’t get the shot he wants.

6.) Utah: Carter Yakemchuk, RHD, WHL (Calgary)

They might be moving to a new city, but I will always go obscure for the former Coyotes until they prove me otherwise. Yakemchuk might be the biggest conundrum in the NHL draft. An aggressive, 6’4 right-handed defenseman who knows how to move up in the zone and also has very good puck skill for a player his size should be seriously considered this high in this draft. However, his poor footwork, inconsistent passing especially in transition, and his very questionable decision making in the neutral/defensive zone drove him down my own personal board. There’s definitely aspects of his game that can an NHL team can justify taking him in this range, but this is a homerun swing.

7.) Ottawa: Tij Iginla, W, Kelowna (WHL)

I’m basing this mock draft off of consensus rankings, and I personally think this is a great pick. However, I can see him falling down 3-5 spots from here in the actual NHL draft. I have a hard time justifying the defensemen available here given that Chabot and Sanderson are locked into their top 4 as LHD and as PP quarterbacks. Iginla ran his own line at Kelowna and was hyper-involved in transition and generated great shooting statistics. His puck skill and lateral agility allowed him to create rush and passing lanes that few in the class are able to generate. His passing metrics were a little low, but he was effective in his dangerous passing attempts and his vision was proactive and not used as a last resort.

8.) Seattle: Zayne Parekh, RHD, OHL (Saginaw)

The Kraken need a PP1 quarterback and Parekh is dynamic in the offensive zone. He utilizes space and moves into areas of the offensive zone in order generate an immense amount of shot attempts. He can move the puck very well on the power play and, when he creates space for himself at even strength, can thread great passes to dangerous areas of the ice. His defensive game needs a lot of work and his transition passing is erratic, but for a team that could use an infusion of offense from the blue line, the Kraken swing big on Parekh.

9.) Calgary: Anton Silyav, LHD, KHL (Torpedo)

At 6’7 with very fluid skating ability, Silyav may go way higher in this draft than this mock. I struggle with my own personal philosophies regarding defensemen in that I don’t like drafting a defenseman in the first round that I can’t confidently project to a power play role. Silyav is a raw project offensively. He makes conservative decisions with the puck on his stick and doesn’t activate nor show elusiveness on the blue line that normally gets me excited to a defenseman this high. However, there is no denying that the size and skating ability with flashes of good puck skill while playing in one of the top men’s leagues outside of North America isn’t worth this type of pick. Calgary has a lot of holes to fill, and finding a long term solution on the backend would be a big help to them in starting a mini-rebuild.

10.) New Jersey: Berkley Catton, C, WHL (Spokane)

Sigh. Catton is my favorite target for the Sabres not named Ivan Demidov. I simply love watching Catton play hockey. He’s got all the qualitative skills you’d want in a player. Great vision, spatial awareness, playmaker, and has been successful on over 90% of his offensive transitions in my dataset. He shoots at opportune times and from dangerous areas. He might not beat an NHL goalie clean from distance right now, but there’s a reason why he was a 50 goal scorer in the WHL. He makes everyone around him better and generates an insane amount of chances on his own stick. I can’t see New Jersey taking a defensemen at this spot with Hughes/Nemec/Casey in the pipeline and their NHL depth.

11.) Buffalo: Zeev Buium, LHD, NCAA (University of Denver)

Who cares about handedness: take the best player available. Buium was a dynamic offensive force this year for the NCAA national champions. His vision, deceptiveness at the blue line, and ability to pick his spots on how to generate offense is sublime. He sees through the layers of a defensive structure and creates rush and passing lanes that most defensemen in this draft are incapable of doing. His defensive skating could use an extra step, but I love the way he uses his gaps and he is amazing off the puck at positioning himself to suffocate the next play. Buium plays chess in the neutral and defensive zone off puck and I’m all in on it.

Yes, we have Dahlin/Power/Byram/Samuelsson in the NHL as long term LHD options. Yes, we have Ryan Johnson waiting in the wings. I’m always taking the best player available and Buium currently sits at #5 on my big board, so I’m going to take the player and figure out the rest later

Wildcard: If we had to take a forward

Trevor Connelly, LW, USHL (Tri-City)

His off-ice concerns are something the Sabres are going to have to figure out and I’ll trust their investigation into the player and what has happened with him off the ice. The Athletic did a great write up of all the concerns here. The player on the ice? He broke my dataset in so many areas in the offensive end, especially compared to his North American counterparts. He attempted 45% more dangerous shots than anyone else in my dataset in total. He’s second amongst forwards in total pass attempts and is first in percentage of passes going to dangerous areas of the ice at 29%. He has defensive concerns, but my goodness, he’s instant offense in the USHL and shined in the u18s playing down in the lineup.

(Photo Credit: Jim Rosvold)