Jack Quinn has been one of the more frustrating players to watch on the Buffalo Sabres over the last two years. Injuries have, of course, played their part in his on-ice performance. With the playoffs a strong possibility for this club this season, I’ve been thinking about how they should handle Quinn.

He feels like the spot most fans, including me, believe he’s the one they should upgrade in the top nine of their lineup. There are shortcomings in his game that make it a challenge to see how he’d fare in a playoff series where it’s tighter. However, his impact offensively at 5-on-5 isn’t something to be overlooked either.

The Numbers

The on-ice numbers for Quinn at 5-on-5 are not favorable in Hockey Stats’ model this season. He ranks 12th among all forwards on the roster in expected goal share, second last in expected goals against per hour, and ninth in shot share. On the flip side, he ranks fourth in on-ice goal differential, fourth in goals for per hour, and sixth in expected goals for per hour.

This data paints a clear picture of the 24-year-old winger’s profile. He’s a poor defensive forward with offensive upside that, more often than not, doesn’t outweigh his defensive shortcomings.

After reviewing this data, it’s clear the Sabres should place him on the roster. Where I have some hesitancy with doing that is his individual production numbers at 5-on-5.

Quinn leads the Sabres in primary assists per hour (1.22) during that game state. He’s also ranked second in points per hour, sixth in goals per hour, and third in individual expected goals per hour.

Over the last four years, his individual numbers at 5-on-5 are some of the best of his career. Primary assists, points, unblocked shot attempts, and individual expected goals all rank first or second in his last four seasons. He entered the Olympic break on pace for over 50 points this season.

Defensive issues and turnovers aside, he’s having a relatively productive season for a third-line winger. We can’t take that away from him.

My biggest issue with Quinn remains the inconsistency. He’s at the point in his career where that part of his game should be better. It’s not even from a production standpoint. For me, it’s the inconsistency in how he plays from game to game. Some nights, he looks like a threat throughout the contest. Attacking the middle of the ice and putting defensemen in uncomfortable positions.

He understands how to create space for himself and get to the areas on the ice that give him the best opportunity to score. With his shooting ability, he is a dangerous offensive player when he chooses to be. The clip below is a good example of this. He finds the open space in the defense for a shooting opportunity that leads to a goal on the rebound.

The Canadian-born forward is also one of their more dangerous rush players. Goaltenders have to respect his shot, but he can distribute the puck as well.

Game Style

Acknowledging all of that, I have to bring it back to the issue at hand. When it comes to a certain game style or opponent, Quinn is ineffective more often than not. The unfortunate part is that those types of games and teams are the ones that the Sabres would meet in the playoffs—more forechecking and tighter defensive games.

As I mentioned, Quinn can be dangerous on the rush, but we see this type of play too often.

Pucks die on his stick and, at times, result in counterattacks that result in quality scoring chances. That’s one reason for the high on-ice expected goals against rate.

In the defensive zone, he has not performed well getting the puck out of the zone, and he turns it over, causing extended shifts in that end of the ice.

You can find clips like the one above pretty easily when you watch Quinn’s shifts. Luckily for him, some defensive luck has prevented his actual on-ice goals against numbers from exceeding the expected goals against. The tracking data from All Three Zones supports what our eyes tell us about exiting the zone.

That’s why I’m so focused on considering the playoff style when these things he struggles with are amplified. It’s difficult to move a player who can flip a game with the offensive potential at 5-on-5 in a seven-game series, but does that outweigh the other deficiencies?

He doesn’t have a power play upside where you can try to hide him at even strength for the benefit of the man advantage. His numbers grade out as one of the worst power play forwards on the team.

That’s where the decision comes into play for the Sabres front office. Can they upgrade to a more 200-foot player with the other offensive talent on the team, or would they prefer to try to shelter him to the best of their ability to keep scoring upside?

The good news is that Quinn’s offensive potential and his age could make him an intriguing option in the trade market to some teams.

Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Data via: Hockey Stats, All Three Zones, and Hockeyviz