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Ostlund injury will force lineup changes for the Sabres

The Buffalo Sabres losing Game 5 in overtime to the Boston Bruins was the main headline from Tuesday night. The first substory right under the headline for the Sabres was the injury to Noah Ostlund. The rookie forward was rolled up on early in the first period and missed the remainder of the game.

Lindy Ruff shared with the media today that the news this morning about Ostlund’s injury wasn’t good and that Ostlund would miss some time.

Ostlund has been a key player for the Sabres. They’ve looked like a different team since he returned to the lineup in Game 3. His absence was noticeable for the remainder of Game 5 as they struggled to consistently generate offense throughout their lineup.

The Sabres will have to figure out how to wrap up this series against the Bruins without Ostlund. We’ll see how much he would miss of round two if the Sabres advance.

Josh Norris Return 4.0

Josh Norris will be the one who steps into the lineup to replace Ostlund. He missed the two games in Boston due to injury and was seemingly a healthy scratch in Game 5. The decision to keep Norris out is debatable, but we’ll keep that on the outside for now.

The 26-year-old center didn’t stand out in the first two games of the series. It’s possible an injury played a role in Game 2, but he still left you wanting more. Having said that, I don’t think he was as bad as some people believe.

In Game 1, Norris finished with a 58% expected goal share at 5 on 5. His line with Zach Benson and Josh Doan didn’t generate a lot offensively in that game. They also didn’t allow much of anything against. It was a low-event outing for that trio. Game 2, however, didn’t go well for Norris or that line. They were on the ice for two goals against with a 42% expected goal share. The entire roster was bad that night, so it’s hard to put too much blame on Norris.

What looks bad for Norris is that his two wingers took off while he was out of the lineup, with Ostlund centering them. I’m sure there are many factors that played into this. It’s not only because Norris was out of the picture. Ostlund was playing well. Doan and Benson also elevated their game on the road, becoming dawgs on the puck. We even saw that carry over in Game 5 when Ostlund was out of the lineup.

I don’t think we need to get twisted up in a small sample of two playoff games to be concerned that this line still can’t succeed without Ostlund. During the regular season, the trio of Norris, Doan, and Benson played 88 minutes together at 5 on 5.

In those 88 minutes, they had a 80% goal differential at 5 on 5, according to Hockey Stats. The line put up an on-ice goals for rate of 5.41 goals per 60 minutes and 1.35 goals against per 60. The expected goal numbers were solid, too, at a 60% on-ice share to go along with a 52% shot share.

Norris, without question, needs to perform better than he did in the first two games of the series. He’s likely to go into the lineup playing with the Sabres two best wingers right now. They need him to be an impact player, not just for the remainder of this series, but moving forward if they advance.

McLeod Line

While it’s likely Norris goes back between Benson and Doan, that doesn’t need to be the move. I think Lindy Ruff needs to consider breaking up the line of Jason Zucker, Ryan McLeod, and Jack Quinn. McLeod has the lowest expected goal share among all forwards on the roster.

All three of those players are also the only forwards with a 5-on-5 on-ice goal differential below 50%, besides Norris, who only played two games.

It’s interesting that McLeod has one of the lowest on-ice expected goals for per hour rates at 5 on 5 on the team, while Quinn and Zucker are the top two on the team. Of those three, in my opinion, Quinn has been the most dangerous. He has been skating well, but he’s not getting to the middle of the ice enough. This is part of the Quinn inconsistency we’ve seen throughout his career.

Zucker seems to be going through some dreadful shooting luck, but I haven’t liked his game in the defensive zone. There have been too many failed exits on the wall off of his stick. The Bruins’ first goal in Game 5 was a result of his failing to clear the zone twice. It’s possible an injury is impacting him. He did leave Game 4 early.

McLeod is the one I’ve been disappointed with at 5-on-5. He’s back to not shooting the puck and just not being enough of a factor. I’d look past the lack of offense if his defensive game were solid. Unfortunately, that area of his game has looked the best, too, and the numbers back it up. He has the fourth-highest on-ice expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and the highest goals-against rate.

Ruff could flip Norris and McLeod in the lineup for a change. The issue with that, though, is you’d have two lines that have not played together really at all this season. The Ostlund injury likely forces Ruff to keep things as they are to avoid significant changes across all the lines.

Practice today will give us a good indication of the direction Ruff will go for Game 6.

Data via: Hockey Stats
Photo Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images

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