Matchups to watch in the series between the Sabres and Bruins

The Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins will kick off their round one series tomorrow night. As in any playoff series, a few key matchups ultimately determine who moves on.

Both teams come into this series with advantages over the other. This isn’t your classic division winner facing a wild-card team. The Sabres finished second in the conference in points, and the Bruins were fifth. Both clubs ended with at least 100 points in the regular season.

Special Teams

I genuinely feel the special teams matchup will be one of the key factors in this series. In particular, the Sabres power play against the Bruins penalty kill.

The Sabres finished ranked 21st in power play percentage at 19.1%, and the Bruins 24th in penalty kill percentage at 77%. It’s no secret that the Bruins will make bad decisions, leading to many penalties. They had the third-highest minor penalties taken per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey.

Throughout the year, the Sabres power play has been inconsistent, to be polite. They haven’t looked like a dangerous group in that area all season, and did not score with the man advantage in their last seven games. That needs to improve if they want to advance past the first round.

Especially when you consider that Jeremy Swayman has struggled this season when his team is shorthanded, according to Evolving Hockey’s model, Swayman ranked 44th among goaltenders in goals saved above expected per hour while shorthanded.

His delta Fenwick save percentage (dFsv%) was 46th, and raw save percentage was 48th at 84.21%. Part of that is the Bruins allowing a decent amount of quality opportunities against while shorthanded. Hockey Stats’ model has them ranked 20th in expected goals against per hour while shorthanded.

I went back and watched all the power play goals against Swayman over the last four months. I observed two things. One, he struggled to pick up pucks from a distance, especially with screens in front of him.

That’s not an uncommon thing for any goaltender. Take away their eyes, and it’s harder to make saves.

The more important thing I noticed was that Swayman doesn’t do a good job competing for loose pucks in the crease. You can see one example here against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Here is another one against the Philadelphia Flyers.

Think about where the Sabres scored the two power play goals against the Bruins in their last matchup. Both were around the off of quick passes because they don’t defend that area well. Combine Swayman’s struggles in this area with the Bruins doing a poor job defending that part of the ice, and that’s where the Sabres need to attack.

On the flip side, the Sabres penalty kill, which finished ranked fourth in the NHL, will have its hands full with the ninth-ranked Boston power play. I called out the Bruins’ knack to take penalties, but the Sabres were not far behind. They had the ninth-most minor penalties taken per 60 minutes this season.

Goaltending

I spent a lot of time on Swayman’s performance while shorthanded, but in other situations, he was one of the best in the league this season. He finished ranked third in goals saved above expected in Hockey Stats model.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen put up some good numbers this season as well, once he found his groove. He finished 16th in goals saved above expected.

Goaltending is critical in the playoffs. I’m not necessarily asking Luukkonen to outperform Swayman, but he has to play well enough so the Bruins’ advantage is reduced.

Forward Depth

The scoring depth at forward favors the Sabres on paper. The Bruins rely heavily on their top two lines to score at 5 on 5. The Sabres, on the other hand, have gone three lines deep with their scoring this season. Buffalo finished with five players scoring 20 goals or more compared to four on Boston’s side.

It’s not a significant advantage, but I’ll put it this way. If the Sabres shut down the Pastrnak line and the Bruins shut down the Thompson line, I’m feeling good about the Sabres odds of winning the series.

The assumption is that Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson will be the pair tasked with handling Pastrnak’s line throughout the series. It’ll be interesting to see which forward line Lindy Ruff puts on that responsibility. He may opt to rely on his defense pair as the primary shutdown, but it wouldn’t shock me if Josh Norris is given that assignment.

Physicality/Forecheck

Bruins head coach Marco Sturm has made it clear they plan to play a physical game against the Sabres.

Sturm on the matchup with Buffalo:

"We're excited. We are bigger, stronger, we are more physical. We just have to be smart. But, we're going to go after them." pic.twitter.com/XSoTCx108z
— Bridgette Proulx (@bridgetteproulx) April 17, 2026

While the Sabres have shown this season they can handle it, I don’t think this is the worst approach for Sturm. Challenge this team, which doesn’t have much playoff experience, to see if they’re up to it.

The Sabres defense has at times struggled to deal with a strong forecheck. Having said that, I feel the same can be said of the Bruins’ defense. The Sabres need to use their improved forecheck and speed to get on the Boston defense group. They’re not the fastest and will make mistakes under pressure.

The Sabres mustn’t take the bait either. Don’t get into a game that is slowed down by after-the-whistle activities. Don’t get into a game that results in penalties by trying to prove a point and match the Bruins’ physical style.

Defend Home Ice

The last thing I’m going to call out is the importance of the Sabres winning at home. The Bruins come into the playoffs with the fewest road wins among playoff teams, with 16. They finished the season at 16-16-9 on the road. Buffalo had a good home record this season at 26-10-5.

The Bruins, however, were better on home ice. They tied the Lightning with the most wins on home ice this season with 29. It’s going to be difficult to win games at TD Garden. Even with the Sabres 24 road wins this season, which was tied for the second-most in the league.

They don’t want to put themselves in a situation where they need to win multiple games on the road to advance in this series. Defend home ice and maybe steal a game on the road.

I’m excited to get this series going and see what this Sabres group is made of. It has been a long time since being in this tournament, and the hope is that it’ll last more than a week and a half.