Analytics Playoff Scouting Report: Boston Bruins

This is a lot more fun than the draft lottery.

If there’s one thing to say about the path the 2025-26 Boston Bruins took to their 100 points across a 45-27-10 record, it’s streaky.

After their win over the Sabres in The Sad Game on October 11, improving to 3-0, they dropped their next 6 games. After a split in their next two, they won another 7 in a row through November 11. After 4 wins in a row in early-December, they lost 6 straight to end the month, only to win 6 straight again after the calendar flipped to January. Then to finish off the season, just as it seemed the streaking would come to an end, their win in their final game against the Sabres on March 25 started a stretch of 4 straight that was immediately followed up by a road trip that saw them lose 4 and then a 5th straight when they returned home. They won their last two games after that. Following a 10-2 beat down on the Rangers on January 10, they never again dropped under a negative goal differential for the season.

Full Season

(Data per Evolving Hockey)	5-on-5	All Situations
Goal Share	55.01% (6th, BUF 4th)	52.11% (12, BUF 5th)
Shot on Goal Share	49.21% (23rd, BUF 13th)	47.80% (25th, BUF 20th)
Shot Share	49.25% (17th, BUF 14th)	48.80% (20th, BUF 18th)
Shot Quality Share	46.77% (27th, BUF 14th)	46.46% (27th, BUF 16th)
Goal Differential / 60	2.77-2.27 (2nd-6th , BUF 4th-11th)	3.22-2.95 (12th-13th, BUF 5th-11th)
Shot Differential Per 60	57.46-59.20 (16th-24th, BUF 18th-16th)	57.50-60.33 (18th-27th, BUF 21st-18th)
Shot Quality Per 60	2.61-2.97 (25th-27th, BUF 11th-15th)	3.28-3.78 (24th-28th, BUF 12th-17th)

The profile of the full season matches what we know about their roster makeup coming in (because you read Chad’s player spotlight already); they out perform their shot quality with their top line and goaltender. Wonder how that big blob on the righty side of the powerplay was created:

Projected Lines

Based on Bella Fraser’s reporting from Thursday’s practice, this is how the Bruins are projected to line up with their 5v5 stats this season with links to their Evolving Hockey player cards, except for James Hagens of course with only 2 career games under his belt:

			TOI	Goals	Expected Goals	Shot Attempts
Morgan Geekie	Elias Lindholm	David Pastrnak	338:37	16-19 (45.71%)	10.15-12.86 (44.11%)	324-374 (46.42%)
Casey Mittelstadt	Pavel Zacha	Viktor Arvidsson	583:01	42-22 (65.63%)	14.34-14.91 (49.03%)	555-568 (49.42%)
James Hagens	Fraser Minten	Marat Khusnutidinov	23:54	0-0	0.57-0.36 (61.41%)	18-19 (48.65%)
Tanner Jeannot	Sean Kuraly	Mark Kastelic	329:16	8-11 (42.11%)	9.53-12.88 (42.53%)	323-339 (48.79%)

Stats via Natural Stat Trick

		TOI	Goals	Expected Goals	Shot Attempts
Jonathan Aspirot	Charlie McAvoy	489:48	28-22 (56%)	22.51-22.81 (49.67%)	452-498 (47.58%)
Hampus Lindholm	Mason Lohrei	348:25	17-9 (65.38%)	16.24-16.07 (50.27%)	321-336 (48.86%)
Nikita Zadorov	Andrew Peeke	499:17	17-15 (53.13%)	19.84-25.19 (44.06%)	472-508 (48.16%)