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Key Bruins’ players who can impact the series

by Chad DeDominicis - 0

The Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins will meet in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. These two clubs had better seasons than some would have predicted. It wouldn’t be difficult to find pre-season projections that had both out of the playoffs this season.

Sabres fans are well aware of the key players on their team who are making an impact in this series. The ones that will be instrumental in advancing to the next round. I wanted to focus on who some of those players are on the Bruins’ side. As you go into the war of a seven-game playoff series, you should be well-versed on your enemy.

Star Players

It all starts with the three true franchise cornerstones. They have one at each position and are among the best in the league at that position.

Jeremy Swayman

Perhaps the biggest reason the Bruins are in the playoffs this season is on the back of their goaltender, Jeremy Swayman. The 27-year-old should be a Vezina trophy finalist this season. He has been that good in his 55 appearances.

In Hockey Stats’ model, Swayman ranks third in goals saved above expected this season. His traditional goaltending numbers featured a .905 save percentage.

This is where the Bruins have an unquestioned advantage over the Sabres. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has had a good season and is playing well going into the playoffs. Even with that, Swayman is the biggest challenge the Sabres will face in this series.

David Pastrnak

The Sabres are all too familiar with David Pastrnak this season. He had three goals and six points over the four regular-season meetings. He finished the season with 29 goals and 100 points in 77 games.

The Czech-born winger can take over a game and drag his team to a win if the Sabres don’t contain him. I would imagine Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson are going to be matched up against the 29-year-old often in this series.

Charlie McAvoy

Last, but not least, is Charlie McAvoy. He is a legitimate top defenseman in this league. In 69 games this season, he produced 11 goals and 65 points. The American-born defender can be impactful at both ends of the ice and both special teams units.

It’ll be interesting to see who Marco Sturm decides to match him up against in this series. You would think it would be against Tage Thompson, but I wonder if they think another line is more important to shut down.

Second Tier

Beyond those three, there are three Bruins’ forwards I have identified as players the Sabres will have to do their best to keep in check.

Morgan Geekie

The first is leading goal scorer Morgan Geekie. He is one of the best finishers in the league at this point in his career. He ended the season fifth-best in goals scored above expected in the Hockey Stats model in all situations among players with at least 200 minutes on ice.

He was 17th in the league in 5-on-5 goals per hour and led the Bruins in their WAR model. He was also top 20 in the league in goals per hour on the power play. Geekie is not much of a playmaker, but as I said, he can finish with the best of them.

His footspeed is an area that the Sabres could look to take advantage of in a full series. He’s not bad defensively, but it’s not one of his strengths either. The more often he has to defend when he’s on the ice, the better.

Pavel Zacha

I have been a fan of Pavel Zacha for a few years. He was someone I once kicked around as a middle-six option for the Sabres. The 29-year-old had a career-high 30 goals this season in 78 games. He was 15th in the league in goals scored above expected. Hockey Stats’ WAR model ranked him second-best on the team in that metric.

The underlying numbers this season will paint the picture of a player who got by on above-expected on-ice finishing at 5 on 5. I give Zacha more credit as a two-way player who can be an effective shutdown centerman if that’s what he’s asked to do.

Viktor Arvidsson

The true under-the-radar player to watch for me is veteran winger Viktor Arvidsson. No, it’s not because he’s undersized.

Arvidsson put up 25 goals and 54 points in 69 games for the Bruins this year. Probably far better than they expected when they acquired him for next to nothing from the Edmonton Oilers. He was a menace for the Bruins in their last meeting with the Sabres in late-March.

The 33-year-old winger has played in 87 playoff games in his career. He knows what it takes to be effective this time of the year. He finished 17th in the league at goals per hour at 5 on 5 in that same 200-minute threshold.

Honorable Mentions

Two other forwards I thought worth calling out were Fraser Minten and old friend Casey Mittelstadt.

Minten is a 21-year-old playing his first full NHL season with the Bruins. He was part of the package that was acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Brandon Carlo deal.

He has decent size at 6’2″ and 200 pounds. The Canadian-born winger skates well and has good offensive upside. After a strong start to the year, he has cooled off with only three goals over his last 27 games.

Mittelstadt had a decent bounce-back year with the Bruins after struggling for a couple of years. He had 15 goals and 42 points in 71 games. I’m curious about how a playoff-style of hockey fits his game. It didn’t go particularly well with the Colorado Avalanche at times. He recorded 3 goals and 9 points in his 11 playoff games. That’s not bad.

We know his shortcomings, but when he’s fully engaged, he has the potential to make an impact in a game or even a full series.

I’m not overly impressed with the Bruins blue line behind McAvoy. I think the Sabres can take advantage there. They do, however, have forwards that can match the scoring of the Sabres when they’re on. These are the two best finishing teams in the league this season in all situations.

Photo Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Data via: Evolving Hockey and Hockey Stats
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